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wxeyeNH

NNE Warm Season Thread 2021

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Randolph CoCoRaHS site has recorded 147.1" so far this season. I will add 3 inches to that because the very early April event is missing. I recorded about 3" in that event. So let's call it a round 150" so far, usual caveats apply (observer may or not be 90 years old -- LOL).

April blew away March. Just crushed it. Kinda bummed I missed it.

So still tons of head room for a better winter in Randolph, based on the record. 

Already miss ski season. :( 

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3 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Randolph CoCoRaHS site has recorded 147.1" so far this season. I will add 3 inches to that because the very early April event is missing. I recorded about 3" in that event. So let's call it a round 150" so far, usual caveats apply (observer may or not be 90 years old -- LOL).

April blew away March. Just crushed it. Kinda bummed I missed it.

So still tons of head room for a better winter in Randolph, based on the record. 

Already miss ski season. :( 

Yeah I bet that seasonal total is starting to get within the "normal" bin for that spot... the standard deviation has to be fairly large given the short period of record.  Late winter had it's bleak moments but the spring snows are bumping the higher elevations closer to a more normal season variance.  Still on the low side but might now fall within one SD at 150" on a 180" average.

Hopefully that guy isn't 80--90 years old and can still give another good couple decades of data to narrow it down, ha.  Over this way the elevations have also made some progress against normal starting with the April 1st event.  It doesn't look as bad as it did relative to normal on like March 27th.  Guess that's why it's average annual snowfall and not Dec-Mar snowfall, :lol:.

Might be able to get another snowfall still too.

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Pretty great weekend. Woke up to snow Saturday morning but it warmed nicely. Today was perfect for doing some yard work. The direct sun was just enough to counteract the wind. Still no leaves but the grass is plenty green.

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25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I bet that seasonal total is starting to get within the "normal" bin for that spot... the standard deviation has to be fairly large given the short period of record.  Late winter had it's bleak moments but the spring snows are bumping the higher elevations closer to a more normal season variance.  Still on the low side but might now fall within one SD at 150" on a 180" average.

Hopefully that guy isn't 80--90 years old and can still give another good couple decades of data to narrow it down, ha.  Over this way the elevations have also made some progress against normal starting with the April 1st event.  It doesn't look as bad as it did relative to normal on like March 27th.  Guess that's why it's average annual snowfall and not Dec-Mar snowfall, :lol:.

Might be able to get another snowfall still too.

Early winter had some bleak moments too, to be fair. Grinch was a killer.

I am very happy with where the winter ended up despite the challenges. My spot performed well right when I expected it would.

I am starting to see the kind of winters where Randolph will crush and where I will struggle.

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Early winter had some bleak moments too, to be fair. Grinch was a killer.

I am very happy with the where the winter ended up despite the challenges. My spot performed well right when I expected it would.

Congrats on the foot plus on 18z gfs

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Early winter had some bleak moments too, to be fair. Grinch was a killer.

I am very happy with where the winter ended up despite the challenges. My spot performed well right when I expected it would.

I am starting to see the kind of winters where Randolph will crush and where I will struggle.

Nah with an average like that you'll just always get crushed... or at least "struggle" is a very relative term :lol:.

NNE climo is all about wind flow, you are right though... you saw what wind direction worked better than others.  As suspected, E/NE flow is your bread and butter.  W/NW works too.  SW through SE seemed like the events you were more mystified about.  About as one would expect though, a more northerly 925mb wind component is going to be better on that north side of the Presidentials than a southerly component.  Good learning experiences.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Nah with an average like that you'll just always get crushed... or at least "struggle" is a very relative term :lol:.

NNE climo is all about wind flow, you are right though... you saw what wind direction worked better than others.  As suspected, E/NE flow is your bread and butter.  W/NW works too.  SW through SE seemed like the events you were more mystified about.  About as one would expect though, a more northerly 925mb wind component is going to be better on that north side of the Presidentials than a southerly component.  Good learning experiences.

Yeah anything with a dominant south wind will not perform well here. In a coastal pattern, I will be buried. 

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, seems like late season is when my spot separates from the rest of the pack. 

Early and late season is when the NNE higher elevations get their business done for sure.  Mid-winter it's usually pretty even as you saw when everyone has chances for snow.  It's the October/November and April/May snows that really separates the high terrain.

Head down to MD in the middle of winter and then come back north for the late season bombs.  The big spring snows always happen because we usually have more moisture to work with and systems seem to be slower moving.  Just need to be high enough in elevation.

Getting the kids in the car for this one?  If you don't, then @cpickett79 will be camped out on your deck.

gfs-deterministic-neng-instant_ptype-0453600.thumb.png.ab09bdb094322286180c919c34738071.png

gfs-deterministic-neng-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-0453600.thumb.png.ddf31ccf0f79c75bd37a606fd2b12d41.png

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Early and late season is when the NNE higher elevations get their business done for sure.  Mid-winter it's usually pretty even as you saw when everyone has chances for snow.  It's the October/November and April/May snows that really separates the high terrain.

Head down to MD in the middle of winter and then come back north for the late season bombs.  The big spring snows always happen because we usually have more moisture to work with and systems seem to be slower moving.  Just need to be high enough in elevation.

Getting the kids in the car for this one?

gfs-deterministic-neng-instant_ptype-0453600.thumb.png.ab09bdb094322286180c919c34738071.png

gfs-deterministic-neng-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-0453600.thumb.png.ddf31ccf0f79c75bd37a606fd2b12d41.png

LOL I would love to but my wife would kill me. She loves snow Nov to Mar. After that, it’s spring and summer mode. That’s the trade off.  I get her to stay up there Nov to Mar but then she wants beach and pool for 4 months. 

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL I would love to but my wife would kill me. She loves snow Nov to Mar. After that, it’s spring and summer mode. That’s the trade off.  I get her to stay up there Nov to Mar but then she wants beach and pool for 4 months. 

Good husband.  I'd have my neighbor call saying something happened at the house and needs me to go solo up there for a couple days to check it out LOL.

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On 5/1/2021 at 12:25 PM, PhineasC said:

Heck of a way to run a warm season so far. 

The way things have been going recently really is how Mother Nature runs a spring in the mountains of NNE.  There are typically interludes of mild weather, but the mountains getting rounds of snow is perfectly normal  The actual “warm” season doesn’t start until roughly Memorial Day or, in some years, some point in June if the spring storm pattern lingers a bit longer.  That’s why the trees aren’t really leafed out until then, why people don’t plant their gardens until then, etc.  Naturally things can be a little earlier in parts of NNE outside the mountain areas and elevations, but banking on real warmth or a warm “season” until Memorial Day or so is not quite in line with the climate around here.

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April Totals

Days with new snow:  10

Accumulating Storms:  3

Snowfall:  10.7”

Liquid Equivalent: 4.35”

SDD:  9.0

 

I’ve put together my numbers for April, and it actually came in pretty average for most parameters except for SDD, which was roughly an order of magnitude below where it usually is, due to the early warmth in March.

The total liquid for this April did end up about a half inch below average, but there was an additional 1.34” that fell on the 30th and gets rolled into the May numbers.  That creates a stretch of close to 6” in a month though, which is a decent run of liquid.

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Moderna #2 yesterday at 1115am. By 530pm I was exhausted. Woke up shivering uncontrollably at 345am. Took Advil. 

I keep hoping for special powers.

Haven't been home to visit my parents in over a year. May 19th I'm considered fully vaccinated!!! Weeeeee!!!

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6 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

Moderna #2 yesterday at 1115am. By 530pm I was exhausted. Woke up shivering uncontrollably at 345am. Took Advil. 

I keep hoping for special powers.

Haven't been home to visit my parents in over a year. May 19th I'm considered fully vaccinated!!! Weeeeee!!!

Number 2 next week for me, also Moderna, I didn't react well to shot 1 so I'm probably going to end up in same shape as you.

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1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said:

Will or PF, any ideas on annual snow for this spot. 1,800 ft

 

 

F54915B2-59F6-4B90-9EC2-33E52DB02597.png

Bueno, muy bueno. I don’t have numbers, only observation from snowmobiling in the area.  Good average and good retention. Thinking of moving the vacation location north?

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Also, my father in law grew up on a farm in that area and kept a hunting camp there. I guess we actually still have a share. Anyway, it’s a good location. I just saw a nice cabin listed in that area for $275k. 

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1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said:

Will or PF, any ideas on annual snow for this spot. 1,800

No idea on the actual amount but that’s a great synoptic snow spot with high retention. Great CAD and synoptic storms with east or SE flow dump loads of QPF.  Big pack building spot, and honestly at 1800ft it’s always going to snow a good amount.  Snow season is long at that elevation.  Brookfield is nearby, that’s the highest elevation on I-89 in VT and gets good early/late season snow.

Would be hard to go wrong at that elevation.

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What a difference a year makes.   Either it was a year ago or yesterday or today we had snow.   I think we can wrap up this snow season for me.   66.25" about 15" below normal.

 Below is a graph of my temperatures for the past 30 days.  Although climate says we should have a rise of perhaps 12F during this time period our temperatures were very warm a month ago and then have cooled off considerably.  So in reality we have not seen a seasonal rise yet.  A month ago I was worried the foliage would get way ahead of itself and then we would have a killing freeze.  Nature has adjusted so my leaf out is now right on schedule.   Changing subjects,  Gray has put out a chart of the new 30 year climo temperatures.  For Concord NH the average temperature has risen  .8F   Considering it is climate and not weather that is pretty amazing.  Over the course of a human life of 90 years that would be 2.4F which I think would be noticeable.  Although temperatures have increased so has snowfall.6.9" at Concord.  Perhaps less arctic high pressure which would allow the storm track to come north?  

Below if the climate chart, my 30 day temperature chart and leaf out how it looks from my lawn today

Concord NH Norms.jpg

Graph1.jpg

Leaf out.jpg

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21 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

What a difference a year makes.   Either it was a year ago or yesterday or today we had snow.   I think we can wrap up this snow season for me.   66.25" about 15" below normal.

 Below is a graph of my temperatures for the past 30 days.  Although climate says we should have a rise of perhaps 12F during this time period our temperatures were very warm a month ago and then have cooled off considerably.  So in reality we have not seen a seasonal rise yet.  A month ago I was worried the foliage would get way ahead of itself and then we would have a killing freeze.  Nature has adjusted so my leaf out is now right on schedule.   Changing subjects,  Gray has put out a chart of the new 30 year climo temperatures.  For Concord NH the average temperature has risen  .8F   Considering it is climate and not weather that is pretty amazing.  Over the course of a human life of 90 years that would be 2.4F which I think would be noticeable.  Although temperatures have increased so has snowfall.6.9" at Concord.  Perhaps less arctic high pressure which would allow the storm track to come north?  

Essentially all of the climate models show increased precip for the eastern US, and for colder climates like NNE that may mean increased snowfall, for a while at least, and many climo models predict just that.  Not sure of the wx mechanisms that would give that result but it's been happening for most stations in the Northeast this century. If an additional 5% of winter precip is unfrozen while there's 10% greater overall winter precip, should equal more snow on average.  Snowfall in the new norms benefit from the awful '80s falling off the back end.
I had the same concerns for early growth/late frost - happened in 1999 and even worse 11 years later so the time sequence points to 2021.  However, after a cherrypicked 27 days (3/20-4/15) had temps +7.4, the following 24 days thru yesterday were a teeny bit (0.07°) AN and today may drive it a teeny bit under.  We're perhaps a week ahead of average for leaf-out progress but things were 2 weeks ahead in mid April.  Beware the blackflies - they've been out checking the menu for a few days now and will have their knives and forks ready later this week when temps run mid 60s or above.

Edit:  Though snowfall here has been a bit AN since 2000 (though this past season means a teeny bit AN) recent seasons have had decreasing snow/rain ratios.  Lowest 5 winters here (with snowfall and rank among 23 winters):
20-21:  7.08    52.4"  22nd
19-20:  8.32    85.1"  12th
18-19:  8.41  109.2"   5th
09-10:  8.72    64.8"  20th
16-17:  9.23  125.3"   3rd
This past season is the real outlier and helped earn it an F.  The 5 highest ratio winters span 11.09 to 11.76 and the overall average is 10.22.

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Above is a quick shot my wife sent of hail today. Can't make it any longer cause of size restraints.  The front of the grass there is where the dog continually goes the bathroom so that is why it's all messed up.  Nice and green everywhere else lol

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

A couple inches on the Snow Cam last night.

May12.thumb.jpg.d0f47c31e5c83ea67672094326e99b4c.jpg

Got to love the warmer half of the year ;). Anyway it is snowing today in the NC mountains and 47F in Raleigh NC midday which is very cold here for May.

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2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Got to love the warmer half of the year ;). Anyway it is snowing today in the NC mountains and 47F in Raleigh NC midday which is very cold here for May.

Damn, 40s in Raleigh in the daytime in May... that’s what the valleys were up here yesterday. 

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