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Severe Event March 25th 2021


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First warning was issued for Newnan at 11:44. Looks like they had 20-30 minutes of lead time. 
 

Great job NWS Peachtree City. I know it was a slam dunk signature most of the time but they didn’t play the waiting game. Hopefully saved some lives with a long warning. 

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I remember when we first started talking about that supercell when it was in SE MS... Wild ride. Hopefully folks in front of these significant tornadoes it produced were able to get somewhere safe. Nighttime tornadoes suck..

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I’m hoping similar to Dayton, fact it was so late that no one was in cars or away from shelter. An ef4 or 5 at night is catastrophic due to fact shelter offers little protection...but maybe if we get away with ef2/3 shelter helped some and people were able to get in best possible location to ride it out.

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Holy crap... just woke up and checked this :o

Looks like my parents missed it (they're a mile east of the FFC radar) but my in-laws are in downtown Fayetteville... and wife's sister lives in Atlanta...

And crap, I just remembered my wife's grandfather lives in Newnan now :yikes:

Update:everybody's fine...

 

 

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This was from before the final storms further to the south went off, but this suggests to me that the high risk area ended up being too far west (we already knew that), too far north, and not far enough to the east. Can’t say that I blame the SPC at all either. This shows how off the models were at handling this set-up as they quite a ways off to the west and north with this. 

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4 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

This was from before the final storms further to the south went off, but this suggests to me that the high risk area ended up being too far west (we already knew that), too far north, and not far enough to the east. Can’t say that I blame the SPC at all either. This shows how off the models were at handling this set-up as they quite a ways off to the west and north with this. 

As is common with convection, their mesoscale effects kind of screwed up the whole surface pattern compared to what the models showed as the elevated prefrontal activity from yesterday morning turned into the main show while MS and TN were (relatively) spared.

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2 hours ago, DanLarsen34 said:

 

That was really the one thing no one thought was gonna happen yesterday. All the discussion was over whether insufficient capping would allow for a destructively interfering convective mess.

We still have much to learn, and much tweaking to do to the models.

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3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

That definitely looks like solid EF3 damage in spots. Maybe even mid to high range EF3 in spots. 

Most of the damage shown was to larger, seemingly well constructed homes. When you consider that fact it looks like solid EF3.

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Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

That was really the one thing no one thought was gonna happen yesterday. All the discussion was over whether insufficient capping would allow for a destructively interfering convective mess.

We still have much to learn, and much tweaking to do to the models.

Does the Euro have a model similar to the HRRR? I’m guessing not, because it would outpace it similar to the way the regular Euro outpaces the inferior American models.

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Just now, dan11295 said:

Most of the damage shown was to larger, seemingly well constructed homes. When you consider that fact it looks like solid EF3.

So definitely could be higher then. I'm no damage expert obviously. Just going off what I seen in the past. Miracle there hasn't been mass fatalities reported given the timing and how severe the damage is. Advanced warning time saved many lives. 

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1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Does the Euro have a model similar to the HRRR? I’m guessing not, because it would outpace it similar to the way the regular Euro outpaces the inferior American models.

No, Euro is not a hi-res CAM.

It also had its own issues with drastically over-amping yesterday/today's system within 24 hours. See discussion here:

 

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Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

No, Euro is not a hi-res CAM.

It also had its own issues with drastically over-amping yesterday/today's system within 24 hours. See discussion here:

 

I know the Euro isn’t a hi-res CAM. Just didn’t know if maybe there was a hi-res CAM produced in Europe. They’re better than us at making cars, airplanes, and I would assume weather models too.

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