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madwx

Spring/Summer 2021 Banter/Complaint Thread

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3 hours ago, madwx said:

There should be a rule that for every post in the Covid thread, you have to make 2 in an actual weather discussion

Yes

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3 hours ago, TimB84 said:

I strongly hope I’m wrong, but this year feels like another 2012 (the last year I lived in Wisc.).

Not even close (yet). Morch 2012 was to monthly temperature anomalies what April 27, 2011 was to tornado outbreaks; and it set the theme for the rest of that spring and summer. We also had no appreciable snowpack throughout that entire winter, while we had a solid one throughout February this year although the late month thaw steadily gobbled it up by the first few days of March.

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3 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Western PA folk like myself aren’t particularly active on here outside of snow season. My ratio is probably getting dangerously close to falling below the 2:1 ratio.

P.S. How’s the weather in Madison these days? As a UW alum who got to experience that epic ‘07-08 winter, has anything close to that happened since?

There was a pretty rockin' stretch from late January through the first three weeks or so of February this year. 2007-'08 is still my favorite winter though, despite the occasional torches/thaws. My interests definitely lean toward the "sustained storminess" rather than the "sustained cold/snowpack" column. I was going to UW-Green Bay at the time but spent the long winter break with my parents in Stoughton.

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6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

There was a pretty rockin' stretch from late January through the first three weeks or so of February this year. 2007-'08 is still my favorite winter though, despite the occasional torches/thaws. My interests definitely lean toward the "sustained storminess" rather than the "sustained cold/snowpack" column. I was going to UW-Green Bay at the time but spent the long winter break with my parents in Stoughton.

Forgot that was the winter with the extreme January warmth that produced that EF-3 tornado in SE WI.

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LOL at this morning's IND discussion:

THE LAST PIECE OF THE PUZZLE IS ON HOW WARM TEMPS WILL BECOME. DRY 
PARCELS TEND TO GET MORE EXCITED AND RAPIDLY WARM TEMPS LIKE BEING 
OVERCAFFEINATED, THAT'S NOT GOING TO BE THE CASE TODAY. WITH 
MOISTENING PARCELS THEY TEND TO BE LESS EXCITED ABOUT WARMING, AND 
NEEDING MORE COFFEE TO GET MOTIVATED IN REALIZING THEIR POTENTIAL. 

EDIT: ....And IWX:

AFTER RAIN ENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY, CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN A VERY DISCOMBOBULATED UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH
THE GFS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE ECMWF.

I love these technical explanations :P

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  • Haha 5

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An already impressive winter in interior Alaska is going out with a bang, with snow and cold.  2-day snowfall of 13.2" on April 3-4 in Fairbanks, which brought the snow depth to 40".  This is the highest snow depth since 1993.  Snow depth on 4/7/2021 was still 38", 2nd highest so late in the season (only 1991 was greater).  Could be a bad year for flooding and river ice break-up.

Fairbanks just set a new record for consecutive days under 40F:

(1) 179 days:  10/11/2020 to 4/7/2021 - still active

(2) 176 days:  10/3/1965 to 3/27/1966

(3) 171 days:  10/8/1994 to 3/27/1995 

With clear skies and fresh snow cover, Fairbanks dropped to -24 on 4/6/2021, which is the 3rd coldest temp on record so late in the season (-24 on 4/7/1986 and -32 on 4/10/1911).  It was even colder at some other sites:  -36 at Jim River DOT (Mile 138 Dalton Highway); -34 Norutak Lake RAWS; -33 Bettles.

There is an even colder airmass lurking for this upcoming weekend, where Fairbanks could hit -25 or -30.  Normal temps for this weekend are 40/16.  Per Rick Thoman:  "By several measures, the Utqiaġvik 00Z Thu RAOB records the coldest April low-level airmass on record (since 1948). Lowest 850mb temp -35.5C; lowest 1000-850mb thickness 1138 gpm; lowest 1000-500mb thickness 4803 gpm."

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/04/even-colder-on-way.html

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/04/extreme-cold-approaches.html

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On 4/7/2021 at 7:21 AM, IWXwx said:
LOL at this morning's IND discussion:

THE LAST PIECE OF THE PUZZLE IS ON HOW WARM TEMPS WILL BECOME. DRY 
PARCELS TEND TO GET MORE EXCITED AND RAPIDLY WARM TEMPS LIKE BEING 
OVERCAFFEINATED, THAT'S NOT GOING TO BE THE CASE TODAY. WITH 
MOISTENING PARCELS THEY TEND TO BE LESS EXCITED ABOUT WARMING, AND 
NEEDING MORE COFFEE TO GET MOTIVATED IN REALIZING THEIR POTENTIAL. 

EDIT: ....And IWX:

AFTER RAIN ENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY, CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN A VERY DISCOMBOBULATED UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH
THE GFS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE ECMWF.

I love these technical explanations :P

I can hear the dad laugh in my head as I read that. 

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17 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

An already impressive winter in interior Alaska is going out with a bang, with snow and cold.  2-day snowfall of 13.2" on April 3-4 in Fairbanks, which brought the snow depth to 40".  This is the highest snow depth since 1993.  Snow depth on 4/7/2021 was still 38", 2nd highest so late in the season (only 1991 was greater).  Could be a bad year for flooding and river ice break-up.

Fairbanks just set a new record for consecutive days under 40F:

(1) 179 days:  10/11/2020 to 4/7/2021 - still active

(2) 176 days:  10/3/1965 to 3/27/1966

(3) 171 days:  10/8/1994 to 3/27/1995 

With clear skies and fresh snow cover, Fairbanks dropped to -24 on 4/6/2021, which is the 3rd coldest temp on record so late in the season (-24 on 4/7/1986 and -32 on 4/10/1911).  It was even colder at some other sites:  -36 at Jim River DOT (Mile 138 Dalton Highway); -34 Norutak Lake RAWS; -33 Bettles.

There is an even colder airmass lurking for this upcoming weekend, where Fairbanks could hit -25 or -30.  Normal temps for this weekend are 40/16.  Per Rick Thoman:  "By several measures, the Utqiaġvik 00Z Thu RAOB records the coldest April low-level airmass on record (since 1948). Lowest 850mb temp -35.5C; lowest 1000-850mb thickness 1138 gpm; lowest 1000-500mb thickness 4803 gpm."

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/04/even-colder-on-way.html

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/04/extreme-cold-approaches.html

It’s crazy to see such cold temperatures there so late, although definitely not unprecedented as their April record low is -32F. Climatically speaking, Fairbanks has very little seasonal lag. This means that in Fairbanks, June is warmer than August, and December is colder than February.

It looks like temperatures return to normal next week, and that streak of below 40F temperatures will come to an end.

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4 hours ago, BrandonC_TX said:

It’s crazy to see such cold temperatures there so late, although definitely not unprecedented as their April record low is -32F. Climatically speaking, Fairbanks has very little seasonal lag. This means that in Fairbanks, June is warmer than August, and December is colder than February.

It looks like temperatures return to normal next week, and that streak of below 40F temperatures will come to an end.

To add some perspective by looking at the data, DJF was above normal at Fairbanks, and if you include November and March in there, the cold season there was slightly below normal. That said, NWS point and click for Fairbanks suggests that -32 could be challenged Saturday morning, which would be impressive. Imagine waking up to -32 degree temperatures in April.

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Sad.

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
2319Z FRI APR 09 2021
...NWSCHAT OUTAGE / USAGE OF CHAT DURING CRITICAL WEATHER DAY...

NCO IS CURRENTLY CONFIRMING THE HEALTH OF NWSCHAT SERVICES AFTER
A RECENT OUTAGE. 

AS A REMINDER, IF USERS ARE NOT SEEING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PLEASE
LIMIT NWSCHAT LOGINS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.  IF IT IS A QUIET
WEATHER DAY..ONLY ONE PERSON FROM THE OFFICE LOGGED IN TO RESPOND
TO PARTNER REQUESTS.  ALSO WE WOULD REQUEST THAT PARTNERS DO THE
SAME.  WITH YOUR HELP WE CAN KEEP NWSCHAT STABLE THROUGHOUT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  THANK YOU FOR YOUR COOPERATION.
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On 4/9/2021 at 7:49 AM, TimB84 said:

To add some perspective by looking at the data, DJF was above normal at Fairbanks, and if you include November and March in there, the cold season there was slightly below normal. That said, NWS point and click for Fairbanks suggests that -32 could be challenged Saturday morning, which would be impressive. Imagine waking up to -32 degree temperatures in April.

"cold season" stats are often overlooked but I became interested in them years ago. They can often look different than just the DJF rankings. Most notable here was 2013-14. 8th coldest winter on record but 3rd coldest cold season.

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4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

"cold season" stats are often overlooked but I became interested in them years ago. They can often look different than just the DJF rankings. Most notable here was 2013-14. 8th coldest winter on record but 3rd coldest cold season.

Is there a generally accepted meteorological definition for the dates that the “cold season” spans?

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Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

55jirv.jpg

All day long and none of it is anything important. Just more Facebook level crap being spewed.

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

I've gotten in the bad habit of checking the SPC site every morning.  Extremely quiet spring so far in the midwest.  

Dixie Alley has been getting all of the action (2 high risk events in a matter of days). It's been fairly quiet everywhere else (including Tornado Alley).

That said, at least here, we still got a few more weeks until the peak of severe weather season. And the peak for much of the Midwest isn't until mid/late June. 

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14 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Dixie Alley has been getting all of the action (2 high risk events in a matter of days). It's been fairly quiet everywhere else (including Tornado Alley).

That said, at least here, we still got a few more weeks until the peak of severe weather season. And the peak for much of the Midwest isn't until mid/late June. 

Need the MJO to wake things up again...and hope that whatever bizarre confluence of events that made the atmosphere forget it was May last year and in 2018 doesn't re-appear. Not to mention 2019's sequence which mostly failed to live up to its potential, but at least it was something.

Last few GFS runs have shown signs of life toward the end of the month but suggest it may be mostly Dixie again...some possibility the Southern Plains get in on the action per the current (14/06Z) run. Not prime time for us yet, but it shouldn't be this much of a nail-biter. As @beavis1729 likes to say about cold and snow in D/J/F, you shouldn't need a bunch of indices to line up just right for :twister: potential in A/M/J. You really need an absolutely hostile pattern to prevent it from happening...but amazingly it seems that's what we have been getting more often than not these past few years. It seems the only "season" that's really reliable anymore is hurricanes in A/S/O (except in 2013, lol).

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14 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Need the MJO to wake things up again...and hope that whatever bizarre confluence of events that made the atmosphere forget it was May last year and in 2018 doesn't re-appear. Not to mention 2019's sequence which mostly failed to live up to its potential, but at least it was something.

Last few GFS runs have shown signs of life toward the end of the month but suggest it may be mostly Dixie again...some possibility the Southern Plains get in on the action per the current (14/06Z) run. Not prime time for us yet, but it shouldn't be this much of a nail-biter. As @beavis1729 likes to say about cold and snow in D/J/F, you shouldn't need a bunch of indices to line up just right for :twister: potential in A/M/J. You really need an absolutely hostile pattern to prevent it from happening...but amazingly it seems that's what we have been getting more often than not these past few years. It seems the only "season" that's really reliable anymore is hurricanes in A/S/O (except in 2013, lol).

On another forum, I said that Birmingham has become the new OKC.

Obviously I was joking, but there's a tiny grain of truth to that based on the analysis below:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0048-2

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Need the MJO to wake things up again...and hope that whatever bizarre confluence of events that made the atmosphere forget it was May last year and in 2018 doesn't re-appear. Not to mention 2019's sequence which mostly failed to live up to its potential, but at least it was something.

Last few GFS runs have shown signs of life toward the end of the month but suggest it may be mostly Dixie again...some possibility the Southern Plains get in on the action per the current (14/06Z) run. Not prime time for us yet, but it shouldn't be this much of a nail-biter. As @beavis1729 likes to say about cold and snow in D/J/F, you shouldn't need a bunch of indices to line up just right for :twister: potential in A/M/J. You really need an absolutely hostile pattern to prevent it from happening...but amazingly it seems that's what we have been getting more often than not these past few years. It seems the only "season" that's really reliable anymore is hurricanes in A/S/O (except in 2013, lol).

When it comes to severe weather I'm weird. I love a good wicked looking sky. And deep down I always wanted to see a funnel cloud. But I don't want so much as a twig to be snapped of any of my trees, let alone lose power. So I guess in the end...im fine with it lacking.

 

That said, severe weather has been far far FAR more lacking here than winter weather and it's not even a contest. Through about 2004, we seemed to always get several instances of severe weather yearly. As snowfall increased the number of strong or severe storms just tanked. I am not sure about regionally, I'm just talking locally. And unlike granddad who for centuries has been falsely claiming winters of his youth were tougher, I have the written proof (and pictures). I've been keeping daily records since 1995. 

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Need the MJO to wake things up again...and hope that whatever bizarre confluence of events that made the atmosphere forget it was May last year and in 2018 doesn't re-appear. Not to mention 2019's sequence which mostly failed to live up to its potential, but at least it was something.

The MJO has been active, but it really hasn’t had an affect on the pattern overall since last year.


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