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wdrag

March 2021

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Colder air will press southward tonight. As the temperature falls, rain will change to snow in parts of the Northeast. Precipitation will likely total 0.50" - 1.50" from Philadelphia to Boston with some higher amounts.

There could still be an area of 1"-3" snowfall with some locally higher amounts in an area running through New England, that could include Boston and/or Worcester. There is a chance that the rain could end as a period of snow or flurries even in New York City and its nearby suburbs.

The coming weekend will likely mark the start of a warming trend. Since 1950, nearly 60% of days two weeks after the AO reached +3.000 or above in the March 1-15 period were warmer than when the AO reached +3.000 or above. The AO reached +3.000 on March 10. The mean increase was 2.8°. This suggests that it is more likely than not that the closing week of March could see a return to warmer conditions. Most of the guidance favors the development of warmer conditions that would continue through the remainder of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around March 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -2.49 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.117 today.

On March 17 the MJO data was unavailable. MJO data will no longer be posted until the data is again available.

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.0° (1.5° above normal).

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 50degs.(42/57), or +5.0.

No precipitation till next Wed/Thur.       GEM still has lowest T's.       Ensembles have peak T's near the 25th, 30th----and a low out by April 3.

34*(35%RH) here at 6am.       33* at 7am.  (was 44* back at midnight)      32* by 8am.       37* by 2pm.       40* by 3pm.       42* by 4pm.       43* by 5pm.      44* at 5:30pm.

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Morning thoughts...

Following a departing storm that ended with a little light snow in the New York City region, today will be partly cloudy and windy. It will be unseasonably chilly. High temperatures will reach the lower and  middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 44°

Newark: 45°

Philadelphia: 47°

A pronounced warming trend will likely commence during the weekend. As a result, should the temperature fall to freezing tomorrow morning, there is a chance that it could be Central Park’s last freeze of the 2020-21 season.

Early next week could see near record to record warmth in parts of eastern Canada. 

Finally, it is likely that Central Park will fall short of receiving the 1.4” snow needed to reach 40.0” for winter 2020-21. Since 1869, there were 30 cases that saw no measurable snowfall during March 1-19. Mean snowfall for the remainder of the snow season came to 0.8”. 60% of cases saw no measurable snowfall, 77% of cases saw less than 1” of snow, 23% saw 1” or more snow, and 17% saw 2” or more snow during the remainder of the snow season. The most snowfall from such cases was 5.0” during 1998. The most recent such case occurred in 2020 when no measurable snow was reported after March 19.

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Hard to believe that Christmas was our last cutter with 1.00”+ of rain in NYC and 60°. The main storm track since then has been Miller Bs sliding by to our south. It will be interesting to see if the Euro is correct about an actual warm and wet cutter for next week.

 

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I'm actually surprised that the snow just shut off after February.  Very odd like others have mentioned to have such a poor January and March.  Watch us get a good April storm lol.

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15 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

ticks: nature's second-worst animal.

after watching my boss go through Lyme i became a militant tick-checker.  everyone should if you have a chance to be exposed.

given the progression of weather around here i assume the tick problem is just going to get more extreme every year.

It really depends. Lyme disease is a tight cycle with nature. Currently our numbers in the tri-state for number of ticks infected is actually dropping steadily for Lyme while it is increasing to the north. We do have other diseases though that are increasing. However, Lyme is and will remain a serious threat. Ticks do not like extreme cold but snowless winters, and they don’t do well with warm winters either. They can’t fully enter diapause so end up burning through more lipid when they aren’t active. 

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30 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I'm actually surprised that the snow just shut off after February.  Very odd like others have mentioned to have such a poor January and March.  Watch us get a good April storm lol.

It matches the pattern since the snowfall increase in 02-03. Notice how the big February years had a snowy December and less snowy January and March. 13-14 was able to manage a snowy January but less snowy March. We pretty much knew the snowfall was going to come to quick stop following the record AO rise in mid-February. AO volatility has been a common feature for us in recent years. The 10-11 season cut off abruptly preventing us from catching 95-96 when the AO rapidly rose. 15-16 featured the epic AO reversal that gave us the +13 in December and 30” snowstorm in January. 17-18 featured another big AO swing which produced 80° in February and 30” of snow in March. 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4
2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4
2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0
2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T M 38.6
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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It matches the pattern since the snowfall increase in 02-03. Notice how the big February years had a snowy December and less snowy January and March. 13-14 was able to manage a snowy January but less snowy March. We pretty much knew the snowfall was going to come to quick stop following the record AO rise in mid-February. AO volatility has been a common feature for us in recent years. The 10-11 season cut off abruptly preventing us from catching 95-96 when the AO rapidly rose. 15-16 featured the epic AO reversal that gave us the +13 in December and 30” snowstorm in January. 17-18 featured another big AO swing which produced 80° in February and 30” of snow in March. 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4
2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4
2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0
2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T M 38.6

Boom bust has been the cycle for sure. 17-18 had the huge March but lousy Feb, and had the big 1/4 storm. 15-16 snow came from late Jan into early Feb. 10-11 had the crushing month long period from Christmas to 2/1. This year for me 10” before the 1/31-2/1 storm and 30” within under 3 weeks after that, nada since. 

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2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Ticks do not like extreme cold but snowless winters, and they don’t do well with warm winters either. They can’t fully enter diapause so end up burning through more lipid when they aren’t active. 

this is an interesting insight.

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Looks like a more seasonal leaf out expected.

Things are much further behind than last year but with the milder temperatures we should make a lot of progress till Easter.

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EURO  WEEKLIES FOR APRIL--------A  Big Bore.          May to start wet and cool?

W1    DRY                  AN T'S

W2    DRY                 AN T'S

W3   WETTER         AN TO NORMAL

W4    WET                NORMAL

The days in and around April 01 have the highest chance of the year for measurable precipitation at 41%-----but not this year apparently.

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The extreme drought conditions in the West should be a player in the summer forecast. Another factor will probably be the record warm pool east of New England. So maybe a dueling WAR and Rockies/ Plains ridge for the summer.
 

Warmest winter SSTs on record  east of New England

 

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50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The extreme drought conditions in the West should be a player in the summer forecast. Another factor will probably be the record warm pool east of New England. So maybe a dueling WAR and Rockies/ Plains ridge for the summer.
 

Warmest winter SSTs on record  east of New England

 

Could mean another active east coast hurricane season if we have the strong WAR and trough that tries to fit between a huge West ridge and the WAR. Storms would be brought north up the coast I’d think. Maybe substantial number of landfalls too unfortunately-strong WAR might mean fewer recurves before strikes.

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Could mean another active east coast hurricane season if we have the strong WAR and trough that tries to fit between a huge West ridge and the WAR. Storms would be brought north up the coast I’d think. Maybe substantial number of landfalls too unfortunately-strong WAR might mean fewer recurves before strikes.

Active seasons are almost a lock now unless we have a moderate or stronger Nino. Our buffer zone of sub 80 degree water keeps shrinking as well. It’s only a matter of time before we see a cat three rocket up the coast 38 style 

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premium spring weekend coming up.  totally unimpeded sunshine will help temperatures overperform and declining winds will make it feel warmer besides.  i am going to spend the entire time debating politics with strangers on the internet.

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21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Could mean another active east coast hurricane season if we have the strong WAR and trough that tries to fit between a huge West ridge and the WAR. Storms would be brought north up the coast I’d think. Maybe substantial number of landfalls too unfortunately-strong WAR might mean fewer recurves before strikes.

The most interesting part of our tropical activity last 10 years has been the impressive blocking to our north and east. The strong WAR in 2011 forced Irene to run just inland up through the Carolinas to our area. Then Sandy in 2012 met the record block to our north and made the historic left turn into New Jersey. Last summer Isaias made the tucked in track just inland due to the strong ridge east of New England. So the 500 mb blocking patterns have prevented a stronger hurricane landfall from Suffolk up into New England. This Suffolk to New England track was common from the 30s to the 50s. But it has been absent since Hurricane Bob in 1991.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The most interesting part of our tropical activity last 10 years has been the impressive blocking to our north and east. The strong WAR in 2011 forced Irene to run just inland up through the Carolinas to our area. Then Sandy in 2012 met the record block to our north and made the historic left turn into New Jersey. Last summer Isaias made the tucked in track just inland due to the strong ridge east of New England. So the 500 mb blocking patterns have prevented a stronger hurricane landfall from Suffolk up into New England. This Suffolk to New England track was common from the 30s to the 50s. But it has been absent since Hurricane Bob in 1991.

Yup. One of these days maybe soon a storm will take an Isaias track but hit NC instead as a cat 3. If that happened it would’ve been devastating even up to our area. 

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Earlier today, the temperature fell to 31° in New York City. Overnight, the temperature could again approach or reach freezing in Central Park. Afterward, it is possible that New York City will not see the temperature fall to freezing until some time next fall, as the remainder of March will likely see above freezing temperatures.

April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018.

Select April Statistics:

1951-80: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.1
1961-90: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.3
1971-00: Years with freezes: 16; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.2
1981-10: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0
1991-20: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0

Least years with freezes: 10, 1984-2013

Most years with freezes: 26, 1874-1903, 1880-1909, 1895-1924, 1896-1925, and 1897-1926

Lowest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 0.8, 1983-2012, 1984-2013, 1985-2014, and 1986-2015

Highest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 3.7, 1871-1900 and 1872-1901

Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 0, Most Recent: 2020

Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 11, Most Recent: 1874   

The coming weekend will mark the start of a warming trend. Since 1950, nearly 60% of days two weeks after the AO reached +3.000 or above in the March 1-15 period were warmer than when the AO reached +3.000 or above. The AO reached +3.000 on March 10. The mean increase was 2.8°. This suggests that it is more likely than not that the closing week of March could see a return to warmer conditions. Most of the guidance favors the development of warmer conditions that would continue through the remainder of the month.

There is potential for near record to record warm conditions to occur in eastern Canada early next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around March 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -2.20 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.238 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.3° (1.8° above normal).

 

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Newark NJ had a low of 33 today just missing a 32 minimum day...they have 78 so far compared to NYC with 64...NYC was 31 today for number 64...Newark usually has 10-20 more freezing days than NYC...

Year..........Oct...Nov...Dec.....Jan.....Feb....Mar.....Apr...Tot...

2020-21.....1.........2.......19.......25.......21.......11..................78

2019-20.....0.......11.......19........18.......13........3.........1.......65

2018-19.....0.........9.......17.......25.......21.......16.........1.......89

2017-18.....0.........8.......21.......24.......13.......18.........4.......88

2016-17.....0.........1.......18.......13.......18.......16.........0.......66

2015-16.....1.........4.........0........27......17.........6.........5.......60

2014-15.....0.......12.......12........28......28.......19.........0.......99

2013-14.....0.......12.......21........27......25.......19.........1......105

2012-13.....0.........6.......14........21.......23.......15.........3.......82

2011-12.....1.........1.......14........17.......15.........5.........0.......53

2010-11.....0.........3.......27........28.......21........12........0.......96

 

2009-10.....0.........1.......20.......25.......24..........2.........0.......72

2008-09.....0.......12.......20.......30.......23........13.........0.......98

2007-08.....0.........3.......17........22......21........14.........0.......77

2006-07.....0.........2.......12........19......27........12.........5.......77

2005-06.....0.........6.......24.......15........20.......14.........0.......79

2004-05.....0.........4.......17........20.......23.......19.........0.......83

2003-04.....0.........2.......22.......27.......26........11.........3.......91

2002-03.....0.........4.......22.......29.......23.......14..........3.......95

2001-02.....0.........4.......11.......15.......16........11.........2.......59

2000-01.....0..........7.......28......25.......19........13..........0.......92

 

1999-00.....0.........3.......16........23.......21..........4..........1........68

1998-99.....0.........3.......14........22.......15.........11..........0.......65

1997-98.....1.......10.......18........14.......12.........12..........0.......67

1996-97.....0.......15.......13........26.......16.........16..........2.......88

1995-96.....0.......16.......28.......28........18.........17..........0......107

1994-95.....0.........5.......13.......19........24...........6..........3.......70

1993-94.....0.........4.......15.......28.......25..........12..........0.......84

1992-93.....0.........5.......14.......20.......24..........15..........0.......78

1991-92.....0.........5.......18.......19.......19..........17..........2.......80

1990-91.....0.........2.......13.......23.......16..........10..........0.......64

 

1989-90.....0.........9.......31.......17........16..........11.........1.......85

1988-89.....1.........2.......24.......19........22..........15.........0.......83

1987-88.....0.........5.......15.......24........24..........13.........0.......81

1986-87.....0.........6........16.......25.......28..........14.........1.......90

1985-86.....0.........0........23.......25.......23..........12.........0.......83

1984-85.....0.........9........14.......29.......21..........13.........0.......86

1983-84.....0.........2........18.......27.......12..........15.........0.......74

1982-83.....1..........9.......12.......20.......19...........7..........0.......68

1981-82.....1..........6.......22.......28.......19.........10..........7.......93

1980-81.....0........10.......24.......29.......16.........16..........1.......96

 

1979-80.....0.........2........15........25.......24........14..........3.......83

1978-79.....0.........4........19........20.......22..........9..........1.......75

1977-78.....0.........7........23........28.......28........13..........1.....100

1976-77.....3........17.......27.......31........19..........8..........3.....108

1975-76.....2..........1.......21.......29........16........13..........2.......84

1974-75.....3.........8.......16........18........17........16..........9.......87

1973-74.....0.........2.......16........19........25........11..........1.......74

1972-73.....1..........9........9........18........19..........2..........0.......58

1971-72.....0.........5.......11........21........25........16..........4.......82

1970-71.....0.........4.......20.......28.........15........10..........0.......77

 

1969-70.....2.........9.......26.......30........24.........14..........2.....107

1968-69.....0.........2.......27.......23........23.........20..........1.......96

1967-68.....0........12.......15.......25.......25.........12.........1.......90

1966-67.....1.........5........21.......20.......25.........16.........1.......89

1965-66.....2.........7........18.......24.......21.........13.........1.......85

1964-65.....0.........5.......19........28.......22........12..........1.......87

1963-64.....0.........3.......27........20.......26........13..........4.......93

1962-63......1........3.......23........25.......26.......12...........1.......91

1961-62......0........6.......23.......27.......23........12...........1.......92

1960-61......0........4.......28.......28.......15........12...........0.......87

 

1959-60.....0.........7........18......24.......24........25...........1.......99

1958-59.....0.........5........27......25.......24........18...........0.......89

1957-58.....0.........6........16......24.......23..........9...........1.......79

1956-57.....0........12.......14......29.......22........10...........3.......90

1955-56.....0.........8........27......27.......19.........20..........3.....104

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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

It matches the pattern since the snowfall increase in 02-03. Notice how the big February years had a snowy December and less snowy January and March. 13-14 was able to manage a snowy January but less snowy March. We pretty much knew the snowfall was going to come to quick stop following the record AO rise in mid-February. AO volatility has been a common feature for us in recent years. The 10-11 season cut off abruptly preventing us from catching 95-96 when the AO rapidly rose. 15-16 featured the epic AO reversal that gave us the +13 in December and 30” snowstorm in January. 17-18 featured another big AO swing which produced 80° in February and 30” of snow in March. 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4
2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4
2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0
2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T M 38.6

Definitely agree, and it's amazing how 02-03 was on par with this year for Dec. and Feb. but at least back then we had spring snow.

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20 minutes ago, wdrag said:

EC op almost 90 KT at 850 Fri AM, GFS ~80, GGEM ~70;  All ensembles considerably less. Worthy of monitoring for a while on a possible SVR wind event FRI AM or midday? 

NWS Mt. Holly actually mentioned the possibility for the first severe weather of the season in their discussion this morning. 

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The next 8 days are averaging 51degs.(43/59),  or about +6.0.

Month to date is -0.3[40.3].      Should be +1.9[44.4] by the 28th.  

No precipitation for another 5 days.    May come with 30mph wind + any gusts.   

35degs.(42%RH) here at 6am.      (was 40* at midnight)       40* by 10am.       45* by Noon.      46* by 12:30pm, but 45* by 1pm.       50* by 3pm.    46* by 8pm.

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