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March 2021

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Morning thoughts...

The long-modeled sharp rise in the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is now underway. This development will pave the way for the warmest weather so far this year later this week.

Today will be partly sunny and somewhat milder than yesterday. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 38°

Newark: 40°

Philadelphia: 42°

Tomorrow will be fair and a little milder. Tuesday will be dramatically warmer and the latter part of the week will likely see the warmest weather since late fall 2020. Cooler weather could develop near or after mid-month.

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20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The PV over the lakes would be nice this time around instead of when it was in January. Enjoy this week because the cold air will be back even if its brief.

 

March and November are the few months of the year that bucked the big warming trend since 2010.

 

F12E05E2-BB78-4920-A338-54BB1DE717BC.png.820d3da120700c519d72affe80a79636.png

BB445B64-BBC0-4A6C-AC65-0752F79E0AE9.png.29c08d565d7cc8ace49d1e4aecc2a746.png

D306D867-EA92-45BF-87ED-2C4905407D24.png.da7f0307ebe4c87cde9c8db821bffd59.png

 

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I guess we had to know that the MJO would eventually make it to phases 8-1.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I guess we had to know that the MJO would eventually make it to phases 8-1.

 

 

Yep

Euro MJO goes into 1 and then possibly into COD.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Big drop coming after the rise ?

20210307_093509.jpg

If that +5 verifies, then I believe it would be the first time that the AO rose from under -5 to +5 in just 30 days.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

If that +5 verifies, then I believe it would be the first time that the AO rose from under -5 to +5 in just 30 days.

There is no remotely close case. The highest AO reading 30 days or less following a -5.000 AO reading occurred during 2013. The top 3 figures:

1. March 22, 2013: -5.240; Highest within 30 days: +3.351, April 21

2. March 21, 2013: -5.399; Highest within 30 days: +3.270, April 20

3. March 20, 2013: -5.688; Highest within 30 days: +3.160, April 19

There were no other cases where the AO reached +3.000 within 30 days after the AO had fallen to -5.000 or below.

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

There is no remotely close case. The highest AO reading 30 days or less following a -5.000 AO reading occurred during 2013. The top 3 figures:

1. March 22, 2013: -5.240; Highest within 30 days: +3.351, April 21

2. March 21, 2013: -5.399; Highest within 30 days: +3.270, April 20

3. March 20, 2013: -5.688; Highest within 30 days: +3.160, April 19

There were no other cases where the AO reached +3.000 within 30 days after the AO had fallen to -5.000 or below.

The bigger AO swings since 2010 have made seasonal AO forecasting even more challenging.

https://climexp.knmi.nl/getindices.cgi?WMO=NCEPData/cpc_ao&STATION=AO_CPC&TYPE=i&[email protected]


886A14D1-BB1F-49ED-AC1F-BB03D5482FC1.png.51870ae3578de5f3ce1eb182ee5b4581.png

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1956 had a pretty fast rise from Feb into March...

1956  2 15 -4.564...winter low...
1956  2 16 -3.793
1956  2 17 -3.450
1956  2 18 -3.655
1956  2 19 -3.702
1956  2 20 -3.792
1956  2 21 -3.627
1956  2 22 -2.998
1956  2 23 -1.752
1956  2 24 -0.916
1956  2 25 -0.129
1956  2 26  0.484
1956  2 27  1.265
1956  2 28  2.334
1956  2 29  3.227
1956  3  1  4.445
1956  3  2  4.692

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3 minutes ago, uncle W said:

1956 had a pretty fast rise from Feb into March...

1956  2 15 -4.564...winter low...
1956  2 16 -3.793
1956  2 17 -3.450
1956  2 18 -3.655
1956  2 19 -3.702
1956  2 20 -3.792
1956  2 21 -3.627
1956  2 22 -2.998
1956  2 23 -1.752
1956  2 24 -0.916
1956  2 25 -0.129
1956  2 26  0.484
1956  2 27  1.265
1956  2 28  2.334
1956  2 29  3.227
1956  3  1  4.445
1956  3  2  4.692

and March 1956 had 21 inches of snow and April 4 inches at NYC.......

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CRAZY RUN  2 feet plus just N and W of NYC through 3/20.    Op run in its weenie range but fun to look at -what's interesting is that this area has had the highest snowfall + departueres this winter...seems like mother nature likes to hit the same place over and over again.

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Under bright sunshine, the temperature soared 40° or above in many parts of the region. Nevertheless, March 2021 became the 11th case since 1990 during which March 1-7 had a mean temperature below 35° in Central Park. The 10 prior cases were: 1990, 1996, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2014, 2015, and 2019. In seven (70%) of those cases, New York City saw measurable snow on or after March 15. Four of those cases saw 4" or more (1996, 2003, 2007, and 2015).

After a similar to perhaps somewhat milder day tomorrow, a strong warming trend will commence on Tuesday. Many parts of the region will likely see their warmest temperatures so far this year later this week. The 60° isotherm will likely extend into southern and perhaps even central New England during the height of the warmth. Central Park will very likely see its first 60° reading since December 25 and perhaps its highest temperatures since late November.

Toward the latter part of the week, near or just after mid-month, temperatures could begin to cool as the AO falls sharply from its forecast peak.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March.

The SOI was -3.40 today. The SOI has now been negative for eight consecutive days. The last time that occurred was June 14-21, 2020 when the SOI was negative for eight consecutive days. This development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.038 today.

On March 6 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.715 (RMM). The March 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.784 (RMM).

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.0° (0.5° above normal).

 

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11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some early indications of spring at the New York Botanical Garden (someone forgot to inform nature of the 18z GFS’s crystal ball):

NYBG03072021-1.jpg

NYBG03072021-2.jpg

NYBG03072021-3.jpg

Very nice Don!  Since we often see snow in both Fall and Spring, I think the term "winter storm" is a misnomer and should be retired.

 

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On 3/6/2021 at 1:48 PM, uncle W said:

I think those days are gone...its either hot and humid or just humid...

maybe we can stick giant dehumidifiers all over the place and turn all that useless humidity into water.....

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The next 8 days are averaging 44degs.(36/52), or +2.0.

Month to date is  34.4[-4.4].         Should be 38.9[about -2.0] by the 16th.

All the Snow is gone again.     So is most other precipitation too.     I told you the GFS was just adding to its Epitaph of Errors.     RIP v16.

                   Here Lies the GFS.............

     To Predict the Weather it Did Its Best.

28*(45%RH) here at 6am.       27* at 7am.         29*  by 9am.        32* by 11am.         35* by Noon.         40* by 2:30pm.       43* at 3pm.          47* reached near 5pm.        40* by  8pm.

 

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Morning thoughts...

After a cold start, today will be mostly sunny and somewhat milder than yesterday. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the lower and middle 40s most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 43°

Newark: 44°

Philadelphia: 47°

Tomorrow will be fair dramatically warmer. Thursday and Friday will likely see the warmest weather since late fall 2020. Cooler weather could develop near or after mid-month.

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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow in Nassau County?  I wonder what FOK had for their low

 

Most local reports I saw on the Davis weatherlink in my area were in the low 20s. There was no wind last night so temps. will be quite a bit higher in more urban settings. I have a decent size back yard and my temperature reading is not near concrete or houses.

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15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow in Nassau County?  I wonder what FOK had for their low

 

It looks like Gabreski Airport in Westhampton got down to 18 degrees about 10-11P.M. but then the wind picked up a little and the temperature rose to the 20s.

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31 minutes ago, lee59 said:

19 degrees here earlier this morning, now up to 25 and climbing fast.

17.7 in Muttontown this morning. Only got down to 21.3 in Syosset.

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Low temp this morning on my side of the hill was 18 and everything in the area with a southern or eastern exposure stayed at 18 or above while the stations with a northern or western exposure dropped to ~14. Microclimates have always interested me and with the plethora of data available now you can really see it.

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23 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Low temp this morning on my side of the hill was 18 and everything in the area with a southern or eastern exposure stayed at 18 or above while the stations with a northern or western exposure dropped to ~14. Microclimates have always interested me and with the plethora of data available now you can really see it.

Yes indeed, I wonder how much the temps can vary across a single property (say, 2 acres?)

 

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52 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

After a cold start, today will be mostly sunny and somewhat milder than yesterday. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the lower and middle 40s most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 43°

Newark: 44°

Philadelphia: 47°

Tomorrow will be fair dramatically warmer. Thursday and Friday will likely see the warmest weather since late fall 2020. Cooler weather could develop near or after mid-month.

Looks like no rain and mostly sunny right through next weekend?

 

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