March 2021

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We did luck in with some warmth in March-hoping the models bust with the -NAO

I hope we get a cool Spring and Summer. 

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We did luck in with some warmth in March-hoping the models bust with the -NAO

It looks more east-based so it shouldn't be that bad.

It'll be a few cool days and then it'll get warmer again. We have multiple months of heat coming up and pretty soon everyone (except Forky) will be begging for cooler temps. 

[CIK62]

Seems the worse was around 9:30am and a little later.      May have been some lightning se. of me then.      I did not hear any thunder.         Not raining since  12:30pm, now 1:30pm

AT 9:30  AM:

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

It looks like any moderation by Easter (4/4) is short lived and cut off / ULL backs down into New England, it wont be nearly as cold as 4/1 - 4/2 but onshore flow looks likely NE o ENE persistent flow in the 4/5 - 4/8 period keeping daytime highs cool to chilly..  Would have been an otherwise warmer pattern with a deep trouh into the WC and strong ridge into the GL but the ULL is forced down under the ridge.  Thats' why some models had the stronger warmup once passed the 4/3 but its looking more like ULL disturbs the warmup through the 8th or so. Id be surprised if the warmer scenario comes to fruition.  I think April is back end warm to hot.

Yeah not a big warmup after the late week cold shot, but it doesn't look too chilly either. To me it looks like average temps the week of the 5th. A lot of days with highs around 60. Nice Spring weather, but cooler at the coast of course due to the onshore flow.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I hope we get a cool Spring and Summer. 

when was the last time we had a "cool summer" LOL

[bluewave]

It’s interesting how warm Novembers and Marches go together. November was the warmest on record in NYC. So it’s no surprise that March is running well above average.

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Mar Departure
2020-2021	53.0	39.2	34.8	34.2	44.7	+2.9
2015-2016	52.8	50.8	34.5	37.7	48.9	+6.4
2001-2002	52.7	44.1	39.9	40.6	44.1	+1.6
1979-1980	52.5	41.1	33.7	31.4	41.2	-1.3
1948-1949	52.4	38.3	38.6	38.6	42.8	+0.3
1975-1976	52.3	35.8	27.3	39.9	44.4	+1.9
2011-2012	51.9	43.3	37.3	40.9	50.9	+8.4
2006-2007	51.9	43.6	37.5	28.3	42.2	-0.3
1994-1995	51.9	42.2	37.5	31.6	45.0	+2.5
1931-1932	51.9	40.9	43.2	36.1	37.3	-5.2
1902-1903	51.4	32.4	30.5	33.5	48.2	+5.7
2009-2010	51.1	35.9	32.5	33.1	48.2	+5.7
1999-2000	50.8	39.9	31.3	37.3	47.2	+4.7

[Uniblab]

4 hours ago, rclab said:

Good morning, Will. Many of the species in our area are harmless and beneficial. It’s a shame that their institutional bad reputation is promoted more often by myth than by fact. As always ....

I had garter snakes as pets in my younger days. 

[rclab]

13 minutes ago, Uniblab said:

I had garter snakes as pets in my younger days. 

I remember in my early USPS days I was just returning to the work floor when I heard screaming and a mob of employees, including supervisors, running full tilt out of the cancellation room. No smoke/fire or unusual sounds, what could it be? I walked into the room and there on a letter uptake belt was a snake. It was traveling opposite to the direction that the belt was moving and going nowhere. Having watched enough ‘ Mutual of Omaha’s  Wild Kingdom’ I looked closely saw no fangs and knew at best it was probably an insect eater. I gently placed my hand on its head with my thumb under the lower jaw and lifted it up. The snake, which I also believed was a common garter wrapped itself around my arm and remained calm. From a distance, as no one would come near me, I asked if I could keep it. Bureaucracy kicked in immediately. I was told I would have to fill out forms to have it released to me. I placed it in a small box and transported it home and released it into the postage stamp. The backyard was covered with a bed of English Ivy at that time. I never caught sight of it again. The snake, as a joke, was probably dumped into a regular mail box.  Thank you, Uniblab for kindling a long dormant memory. As always....

 

[donsutherland1]

Following this morning’s rainfall, thick fog moved across parts of southern Westchester County during the mid-afternoon hours. The fog largely dissipated by late afternoon.

[donsutherland1]

A cold front will cross the region with some showers and perhaps a thundershower. Afterward, clouds will break and tomorrow should be partly sunny, breezy, and cooler.

The remainder of March will continue to see generally warmer than normal readings.

As March concludes and April commences, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is forecast to plunge more than 3 sigma from its current value. As recently as 2018, the AO fell from +1.743 to -2.188 during the March 26-April 3 period. There was a strong cold shot and even a snowstorm. A cold shot is more likely than a snowstorm this time around.

Overall, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +3.54 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.927 today.

On March 26 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.094 (RMM). The March 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.065 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.5° (3.0° above normal).

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.42" of rain for the day

Current temp 55

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Interesting Mt. Holly discussion for the mid/late week system.

An impactful system is expected to move through the region on 
  Wednesday and Thursday, with much colder and breezy conditions 
  expected to close the week. 
   
  Deterministic model solutions have noticeably converged 
  regarding the Wednesday/Thursday system evolution. However, 
  critical differences remain, particularly with the track of the 
  developing wave of low pressure along the advancing front in the 
  southeastern U.S. Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The 00z ECMWF 
  and CMC remain noticeably slower with the advancing trough and 
  continue to be preferred owing to the developing high-amplitude 
  ridging downstream. The 00z GFS has trended closer to the tracks 
  of the ECMWF/CMC with tonight`s output, increasing confidence 
  somewhat. Nevertheless, the GFS continues to be more  
  progressive and drier with the precipitation from the system  
  during this period, an important caveat to the discussion below. 
   
  As the low approaches the CWA Wednesday afternoon and evening, 
  considerable large-scale lift will be in place via right- 
  entrance region upper divergence from a favorably positioned 
  250-mb jet streak, strong differential cyclonic vorticity  
  advection downstream of the advancing, more neutrally-tilted  
  trough, and substantial warm/moist advection on the northern  
  periphery of a poleward-advancing warm sector. Models indicate  
  widespread precipitation developing in this regime, convectively 
  enhanced near the approaching front and in vicinity of the  
  intensifying surface low. Model soundings do indicate some  
  instability in the pre-frontal warm sector, especially if the  
  surface low tracks farther west. Have added thunder to the  
  forecast for much of the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. 
  Heavy rainfall is quite possible with this setup, especially  
  since upper-level flow will become oriented mostly parallel to  
  the approaching front (thanks in large part to the high-  
  amplitude ridging downstream). QPF of 1-2+ inches is depicted  
  with the CMC/ECMWF (50+ percent less in the GFS/ICON). Given the 
  potential convective enhancement of the precipitation and a  
  couple of antecedent soaking rain events, this seems like a  
  setup that favors some flooding potential. Will monitor this  
  closely as the event approaches. 
   
  In addition, very strong cold advection will occur on the 
  upstream side of the cold front, with temperatures dropping 
  10-20 degrees in a matter of a few hours after frontal passage. 
  The cold conveyor belt of the intensifying surface low, along  
  with favorable frontogenetical forcing/deformation, may produce  
  a band of precipitation on the west/northwest side of the low  
  that lingers for several hours. Thermal profiles would favor a  
  switchover to snow for the southern Poconos and far northwest  
  New Jersey, perhaps resulting in some accumulations Thursday  
  morning. (Much heavier snow may occur to our north/northwest,  
  notably.) Will be monitoring this potential as well in the  
  coming days. 

southern Poconos caught my eye.....

 

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of March are averaging 51degs.(44/59), or about +4.0.

Month to date is 45.0[+3.1].      March should end at about  45.6[+3.1].

First 10 days of April are now averaging 58degs.(49/67), or +8.0.        Big heatwave coming too.     Just yesterday this +8.0 was a -1.0.       U Can W.Y.A. + These.

45*(50%RH) here at 6am breezy..  (was 55* at midnight).        47* by 11am.        48* by 1pm.       57* by  6pm.       50* by 11am.

[bluewave]

This was the first time that portions of Long Island like Islip had 1.00”+ of rain since Christmas.

2021-03-28

57

47

52.0

9.1

13

0

1.05

2020-12-25

59

32

45.5

12.5

19

0

1.05

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was the first time that portions of Long Island like Islip had 1.00”+ of rain since Christmas.

2021-03-28

57

47

52.0

9.1

13

0

1.05

2020-12-25

59

32

45.5

12.5

19

0

1.05

How did this event last so long, I was shocked at the heavy rain last night, I thought this was basically a frontal passage and would end during the day.

The super high winds this morning shocked me too

 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How did this event last so long, I was shocked at the heavy rain last night, I thought this was basically a frontal passage and would end during the day.

The super high winds this morning shocked me too

 

It was a 2 part event. Morning warm front followed by evening cold front. Most impressive rains here were with the morning warm front. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was a 2 part event. Morning warm front followed by evening cold front. Most impressive rains here were with the morning warm front. 

I must've slept through that I found the rains in the evening much heavier and then the high winds kicked in.  I found the morning rains just light- what time were the heaviest rains in the morning?  I woke up around 11.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Clouds will break and it will become partly to mostly sunny. It will also be breezy. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 55°

Newark: 56°

Philadelphia: 57°

Tomorrow will be fair and somewhat milder. A strong cold shot is likely at the start of April.

[uncle W]

if NYC gets below freezing in April it will be the first time since 1977 that NYC got to freezing from Oct to April...

1976-77,  1974-75 and , 1969-70 did it...edited...

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I must've slept through that I found the rains in the evening much heavier and then the high winds kicked in.  I found the morning rains just light- what time were the heaviest rains in the morning?  I woke up around 11.

 

it was before then for sure where you are-it hit around here at 10:30 and went for a good hour or so of heavy rains-then just mist and fog the rest of the day

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, uncle W said:

if NYC gets below freezing in April it will be the first time since 1977 that NYC got to freezing from Oct to April...

1976-77, 1975-76, 1974-75 and , 1969-70 did it...

strange it did not happen in 2002-03

 

[donsutherland1]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

strange it did not happen in 2002-03

 

In October 2002, the lowest temperature in New York City was 36°, on October 24. Prior to the 32° temperature on October 31, 2020, New York City had not seen an October freeze since October 31, 1988 when the temperature fell to 31°.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In October 2002, the lowest temperature in New York City was 36°, on October 24. Prior to the 32° temperature on October 31, 2020, New York City had not seen an October freeze since October 31, 1988 when the temperature fell to 31°.

I do remember a trace of snow in October 2002, it must have happened with temps in the mid 30s.

And wow that is a long interval with temps of freezing or lower in October!

That includes the October snowstorm in 2011!  I wonder if that was the most snow NYC has ever seen in a storm in which the temperature never got to freezing or below?

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

if NYC gets below freezing in April it will be the first time since 1977 that NYC got to freezing from Oct to April...

1976-77, 1975-76, 1974-75 and , 1969-70 did it...

This is one of those rare times that an October minimum temperature departure was lower than the whole DJF winter. 10-31 had a -14 low temperature departure in NYC. The winter lowest temperature departure was -13 on 1-29.

 

Almanac for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
October 31, 2020

Daily Data	Observed	Normal	Record Highest	Record Lowest
Max Temperature	46	59	81 in 1946	41 in 1869
Min Temperature	32	46	62 in 1961	29 in 1925

 

Almanac for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
January 29, 2021

Daily Data	Observed	Normal	Record Highest	Record Lowest
Max Temperature	25	39	69 in 2002	13 in 1977
Min Temperature	14	27	50 in 2002	-0 in 1873

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I do remember a trace of snow in October 2002, it must have happened with temps in the mid 30s.

And wow that is a long interval with temps of freezing or lower in October!

That includes the October snowstorm in 2011!  I wonder if that was the most snow NYC has ever seen in a storm in which the temperature never got to freezing or below?

 

NYC's highest snowfall with a temperature above freezing occurred on April 2, 2018 when 5.5" snow fell.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be fair and a bit milder. Overall, the remainder of March will continue to see generally warmer than normal readings.

April could start out on the cold side, but moderation should occur later in the first week of the month. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The warmer scenario remains the base case.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +0.62 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.703 today.

On March 27 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.424 (RMM). The March 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.093 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.6° (3.1° above normal).

 

[forkyfork]

more elevated heavy convection wednesday night

[forkyfork]

moisture from the gulf and tropical atlantic

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

moisture from the gulf and tropical atlantic

There's no way we'll ever see a drought again.

[forkyfork]