February 18/19th Storm Potential

[TL97]

Both NAMs put down .5" of QPF between 10 am and 1 pm in DC, the big question seems to be what the precip type is but that's a crazy 3 hours either way. 

[CAPE]

NAM has 2" of sleet here and a half inch of zr lol. Building an iceberg.

[Snowchaser]

TWC is very bullish with the snowfall.

Even some isolated spots of 12”-18”.

 

[clskinsfan]

Through 45 with still tons of precip to the west. Dont know if any of it will make to us though. 

[Ravens94]

Like this one better.  

By tomorrow night it should be near other guidance

[Winter Wizard]

This is a sounding near DCA right as it flips to sleet at 14z. Razor thin margin.

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Through 45 with still tons of precip to the west. Dont know if any of it will make to us though. 

Ok I’m happy. I don’t give two shits what form it’s in. At least I won’t have to look at a radar that looks like Swiss cheese

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ok I’m happy. I don’t give two shots what form it’s in. At least I won’t have to look at a radar that looks like Swiss cheese

No Swiss cheese here brother. More like Ricotta falling from the sky

[psuhoffman]

The track is damn near perfect now. Duel low structure with a primary into east TN and coastal tracks from outer banks to about 75 miles off Delmarva and northeast. 

[WhiteoutMD]

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

It is wet! Seems low on snow totals

ice storm is what I think

[LeesburgWx]

5 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

TWC is very bullish with the snowfall.

Even some isolated spots of 12”-18”.

 

They’re still naming winter storms?

[MN Transplant]

FYI - the total precip at DCA for the Valentines 2007 sleet bomb was 1.06”.  So, this is right in that ballpark.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

Yeah that’s one of the most bizarre looking warm tongues I’ve seen. Can’t say I’d put much weight into it tbh. 

It usually doesn’t matter much because when it has that kind of feature it’s typically subsidence induced between banding.  The bigger problem being you are in between meso death bands so warm layer or not you weren’t getting heavy snow at that moment anyways.  Plus it won’t be correct on the exact placement of it either. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

They’re still naming winter storms?

Dumbest thing EVER!

[digital snow]

I was in Greensboro NC for 2016 storm. We had pouring sleet the size of quarters. I remember NWS writing it was the largest sleet pellets they had ever seen. 

[psuhoffman]

Who has a good street map of Montreal?  Trying to figure something out. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Who has a good street map of Montreal?  Trying to figure something out. 

It’s way off. At least 4 blocks

[Deck Pic]

[stormtracker]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

One more push 

[cigrgd]

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

They’re still naming winter storms?

The last one was called Uri, an every time they put that name on the screen I was trying to figure out what the University of Rhode Island had to do with anything.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, stormtracker said:

One more push 

The NAM has been great with this so far. Steady

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Dumbest thing EVER!

I dunno.. btw I’m still looking for that Montreal map. 

[Deck Pic]

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, digital snow said:

I was in Greensboro NC for 2016 storm. We had pouring sleet the size of quarters. I remember NWS writing it was the largest sleet pellets they had ever seen. 

There was some massive sleet pellets in the March 1994 storm where I was in Northern VA near Dulles. 

[leesburg 04]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

[jewell2188]

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

That is actually depressing. Literally a heartbreaker.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s way off. At least 4 blocks

Last run was almost a mile...Trends! 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

You’re too much

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, jewell2188 said:

That is actually depressing. Literally a heartbreaker.

And almost certainly wrong

[LP08]

I

Can't say I've seen a sleet sounding like this before.  Cover your cars and wear a helmet.