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February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.


John1122
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Hooray!  Where have you been hoss?
Well, I had kind of a rough year, bro! My son was in sick for a long time and I had COVID on NYE and it's just been a whirlwind coming back but this is certainly lifting the spirits. What a treat this week has been!

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8 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

Not sure how much relevance this has for the valley. Cullman is on the west side of the plateau and has more access to low level cold air than we do. 

Plateau isn't holding the cold dry air back..soundings over the valley has -10° DP overhead. It's a race between the moisture penetrating to the surface (which it already is with the sleet reports coming in from the southern valley). Also, the reason MRX kept Hamilton in a WWA and HUN is now playing catch-up in their area. Models have done a poor job reflecting how quickly the moisture is reaching the surface. Warm air advection is still hours away. 00z HRRR sounding over McMinn..

20210217_204055.jpg

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esoscale Discussion 0113
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0744 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

   Areas affected...Middle Tennessee into eastern Kentucky

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 180144Z - 180615Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is possible from Middle
   Tennessee into eastern Kentucky. There is some indication in
   observations and forecast soundings that sleet could mix in at
   times. Snowfall should decrease from west to east starting at
   midnight CST with lingering freezing rain/drizzle possible.

   DISCUSSION...A band of moderate to locally heavy snow has developed
   within an area of modest 850 mb warm advection across eastern
   Kentucky. To the southwest, mid-level ascent has helped to produce
   moderate to heavy snowfall in the Memphis vicinity. This ascent will
   continue to overspread portions of Middle and eastern Tennessee as
   well as eastern Kentucky this evening. The expectation is for
   moderate to locally heavy snowfall to occur in this region. The 00Z
   BNA observed sounding showed a 0 C near-isothermal layer around 850
   mb with sleet being intermittently observed in Nashville. With
   low-level warm advection forecast to increase during the evening, it
   is possible that some sleet with mix in with snow, particularly with
   southern extent. Snowfall rates are likely to diminish from west to
   east starting at about midnight CST/1 AM EST as lift/moisture in the
   dendritic growth layer decreases with the shortwave passage.
   Thereafter, lingering light freezing rain/drizzle will be possible.
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esoscale Discussion 0113  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK  0744 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021  Areas affected...Middle Tennessee into eastern Kentucky  Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation   Valid 180144Z - 180615Z  SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is possible from Middle  Tennessee into eastern Kentucky. There is some indication in  observations and forecast soundings that sleet could mix in at  times. Snowfall should decrease from west to east starting at  midnight CST with lingering freezing rain/drizzle possible.  DISCUSSION...A band of moderate to locally heavy snow has developed  within an area of modest 850 mb warm advection across eastern  Kentucky. To the southwest, mid-level ascent has helped to produce  moderate to heavy snowfall in the Memphis vicinity. This ascent will  continue to overspread portions of Middle and eastern Tennessee as  well as eastern Kentucky this evening. The expectation is for  moderate to locally heavy snowfall to occur in this region. The 00Z  BNA observed sounding showed a 0 C near-isothermal layer around 850  mb with sleet being intermittently observed in Nashville. With  low-level warm advection forecast to increase during the evening, it  is possible that some sleet with mix in with snow, particularly with  southern extent. Snowfall rates are likely to diminish from west to  east starting at about midnight CST/1 AM EST as lift/moisture in the  dendritic growth layer decreases with the shortwave passage.  Thereafter, lingering light freezing rain/drizzle will be possible.


Very interesting. I’m assuming they believe our thermal profile is good enough for sleet and snow east of the plateau?


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4 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Here is the image to go with Jax Storm Prediction Center Heavy Snow outlook.4ed204197abf6b349dd23da2d2c27beb.jpg

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Be a hard one to swallow if SWVA misses along that cusp again. NAM suites have played around with this depiction alot it the last 96 hours.  Afraid it might be right for mby

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