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Will a portion of the NYC subforum receive a refreshing few more inches of snow Mon Feb 22-Tue Feb 23

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30 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Friday was light snow all day though, if its heavy and it looks like this comes in heavy I'm not sure temps will matter as much (at least up to a point, yea above 35 it's going to have a hard time accumulating) 

if it's heavy it can stick right away even in April.....remember April 2003 and April 2018!  6-8 inches of snow all during the day!

 

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34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

if it's heavy it can stick right away even in April.....remember April 2003 and April 2018!  6-8 inches of snow all during the day!

 

A cold airmass is more vital than the sun angle and it's still only February.

The biggest problem for tomorrow is the wind direction rather than daylight. However in marginal situations the daylight does matter.

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2 minutes ago, Brett said:

They are going with 1 to 2 inches with isolated 3 inch amounts at the highest elevations well northwest of the city

That sounds about right. Eastern PA to NW Jersey could see 3-5. I'm expecting 2-3 by me in MHV. 

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

if it's heavy it can stick right away even in April.....remember April 2003 and April 2018!  6-8 inches of snow all during the day!

 

I remember April 6 - 7, 1982 snowstorm while living in Hawthorne, NJ. Sunny and 55 degrees on April 5 with approaching storm. Temps dropped to 35 by midnight when rain started, then by 12:30am turned over to snow. I had 4 or 5 inches accumulate by dawn. Temps for that storm were much colder as they dropped down into the low 20's by sunrise and stayed there all day. Heavy snow continued all morning and became lighter by mid to late afternoon. I ended up with 12 inches from that storm. And very low temps for a couple of days after.

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4 hours ago, Brett said:

I think they are going to have to issue advisories the afternoon models are coming in with 2 to 4 inches tomorrow west and north of the city. This went from a nothing event to possibly a plowable snow.

only advisory in NJ is for Warren County as of 3 pm.

WSW from KPHI (cod.edu)

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All: 18z/21 NAM FOUS suggests a pretty good chance of 0.2 to 1.5" snow event in the 18z/22 ob for NYC CP.  We'll see if the increasingly faster NAM and reality are truth. Meanwhile no changes to prior early morning updated thread.  With snow in the air excepted into NYC, will begin the OBS thread at about 5AM, Monday.  Still a short fuse attempt at targeting best spot for 3- at most 6" in a 5 hour period. Whether or not it falls at 33F, rate so heavy for a short time that will make treated roads mess, probably imo,  even to NYC, till melting takes over when rates decrease or it changes to rain. Won't add anything more til early Monday.   Have good night. 

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Looking at all models and the current cold, but ‘staling’ airmass, 2-4” (maybe one stray 5” report in higher elevations) most of Morris, Sussex, W Passaic, N Somerset, Warren, N Hunterdon, 1-3” W Essex, W Union, S/C Somerset, most of Bergen, C-1” NYC and all other areas

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NWS regionalized snowfall forecast as issued in their 4PM products, also the HREF in gradations of 1,2,4 (blue shades, green is 6), and the NWS Blend of Models snowfall by 12z/Saturday.  That gives enough snow to pop CP close to#5 by then.  My guess is that NYC will get an accumulative of 0.2 to 1.4" midday Monday with possibly a little more Friday night-Saturday morning. Probably the much lighter amount (0.2" Monday) but it's timing with the 18z ob and melting the keys to less than the max of 1.4". My feeling it will snow close to a moderate rate by 1230-45PM in NYC. The answer by this time Monday. 

Screen Shot 2021-02-21 at 6.17.52 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-02-21 at 6.18.53 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-02-21 at 6.16.49 PM.png

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25 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM ticked a little further east and colder but drier. Looks like just NW of the city might get 1-2 inches. 

 

more then that

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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29 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

 

more then that

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

I mean just NW of the city. Northern NJ west of I287 up into the Hudson Valley Highlands may get more than that. I recognize NAM looks pretty cold, we'll see.

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

RGEM also came in colder, looks like a nice burst of snow even into the city at the start is looking more possible. 

Strong convective elements to this line. We could be talking 2"+ per hour rates for a couple hours. 

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9 hours ago, Snowzone said:

I remember April 6 - 7, 1982 snowstorm while living in Hawthorne, NJ. Sunny and 55 degrees on April 5 with approaching storm. Temps dropped to 35 by midnight when rain started, then by 12:30am turned over to snow. I had 4 or 5 inches accumulate by dawn. Temps for that storm were much colder as they dropped down into the low 20's by sunrise and stayed there all day. Heavy snow continued all morning and became lighter by mid to late afternoon. I ended up with 12 inches from that storm. And very low temps for a couple of days after.

the funny thing was that entire week was cold and we had another daytime snow event a week later!  I wonder what was going on back then to make it so cold so late?

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The latest 04z HRRR continues to print out a lot of QPF. Over 0.5" for everybody except Sussex, Orange, an Putnam Counties. Even a few isolated areas near 0.75". Snow near and west of 95 with a sharp cutoff. It looks like a summer squall line. I wonder if some of the QPF could get lost to graupel. If rates are intense as some of the mesomodels indicate, it could get pretty wild tomorrow even into or close to the City.

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