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Back to Back Major Synoptic Snowstorms!

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I’m a couple tenths of an inch short of 70 inches of snow for the season. Without a big storm (more than a foot) I don’t think I can make 100. 

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31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Summer 2012 repeat please! ;)

Remember that well. My one and only winter spent in Oswego and was looking forward to experiencing some of the best winter conditions Lake Ontario had to offer. Outside of one decent lake effect storm on a weekend that I wasn't there for, it was the winter that never happened. Summer weather and 70s by March was a nice consolation prize though.  

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm surprised more of you snow weenies don't do more winter activities. Almost every weekend you'll catch me downhill boarding/skiing, cross country skiing, hiking, playing ice hockey or snowmobiling. That's how I get my fill of winter. Staying at home doesn't cut it for me. I play ice hockey every Saturday, usually go to holiday once a night during the week and try to get out and hike/cross country at local areas once a week. 

I started snowmobiling in 97 at 14, but had to give it up in ‘16. My lack of time due to work demands in the winter and the disappointing storms like what we just had was driving me crazy. I’d get so grumpy  because of it. Now I just vacations to WY for a week and ride.
Now when the disappointments like yesterday happen I can just shrug it off.

Im hoping to be able to move Wy/co area in the next 5-10 years and get back into riding.

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1 minute ago, Polarbear said:

I started snowmobiling in 97 at 14, but had to give it up in ‘16. My lack of time due to work demands in the winter and the disappointing storms like what we just had was driving me crazy. I’d get so grumpy  because of it. Now I just vacations to WY for a week and ride.
Now when the disappointments like yesterday happen I can just shrug it off.

Im hoping to be able to move Wy/co area in the next 5-10 years and get back into riding.

The guy I hike with a lot is in Wyoming right now. He sent me this earlier today. 

F91A4F4F-8913-4850-8C4A-F5359C532E08.jpeg

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Sorry but this is just silly. Someone please tell me how 2-5 over a 31 hour period meets WWA criteria in middle of February in upstate NY. Maybe in North Carolina but not here. Pretty sure this has more to do with trying to save face and avoid the humiliating cancellation of a premature WSW...

Screenshot_20210217-151535_Chrome.thumb.jpg.aad025c799c079ef7b6de70ba252ff3e.jpgScreenshot_20210217-151555_Chrome.thumb.jpg.7655e6dea2b7539087af962c0218eeb2.jpg

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9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

18Z Runs look somewhat better...not sure if this is a back-and-forth between the alternating runs...I guess we'll know more (I think?) at 0Z

Which models are you looking at, lol!

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3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Which models are you looking at, lol!

The Nam 3k and the HRRR look better.

But then you look at the Rgem, and it shows the SAME OLD shtick of a heavier band of snow out in Ohio up to Ontario and then the main wave to our south...with us sandwiched in between in the CRAP zone. That will probably come to fruition.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

NAM looks good but QPF maps look light, kind of weird. Has snow over us from hour 24 until the end of the run but only 1-2" on the maps. 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_28.png

Well it is the NAM...

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Next system on deck is an area of low pressure currently
developing over the western Gulf Coast. This system will take a
northeast track toward the east coast through Thursday night.
Model trends concerning this system have brought it further to
the southeast over the last few runs as trends aloft have shown
the development of a stronger jet streak over the central
Appalachians on the lee side of the trough. This track will
nearly guarantees that the precipitation type remains as all
snow for our area, with warm air aloft remaining well south of
the region. Model precipitation totals have continued to come
down across western and north central New York, therefore have
continued the recent trend to come off snow totals for this
event. A general 2 to 4 inch accumulation looks reasonable
before drier air aloft potentially allows for a bit of freezing
drizzle toward the end of the event late Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Colder air filters into the area as the surface low pulls to the
northeast and away from the Canadian Maritimes overnight Friday. As
surface high pressure and upper level riding lag further behind the
departing low, lingering moisture and available lift through the DGZ
will allow for lake induced equilibrium levels to jump to over 7kft,
allowing for lake effect snow to develop by Friday night. A
tightening pressure gradient will allow strengthening NNW flow
aloft to bring this snow to southern Lake Ontario and southeast
of Lake Erie.

Slow moving high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will allow
surface riding to build in Saturday, gradually diminishing lake
effect chances. Due to the relatively short fetch with the more
northerly flow, overall snowfall accumulations will be relatively
minor Friday night through Saturday. A more potent upper level ridge
will move overhead Saturday night, bringing an end to the lake
effect and leaving the area with dry conditions by Sunday
morning.

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All that being said, the upper level pattern shifts will result in
surface high pressure overhead Sunday. This will ensure quiet
weather conditions Sunday and the first half of Sunday night.
Meanwhile, the sharpening trough in the upper level pattern will
produce an area of low pressure over Colorado before tracking
northeast and crossing the central Great Lakes Sunday night and the
region Monday. This surface low will then give way to another low
riding up the Atlantic Coast Monday night. The aforementioned
shortwave crossing Saskatchewan Monday, will produce an area of low
pressure that will traverse northeast into Canada. While the low
remains out of the forecast region, its associated fronts will cross
the area Tuesday through Wednesday.

This far out, have high uncertainty as to the precipitation type for
both of systems next week due to the differences between timing and
track of the next system in the model guidances. Thus, as of now
expect some form of precipitation either snow or a rain snow mix for
both systems next week, will have to keep an eye on the pattern as
time advances.

Temperatures trend to near or even above normal as we head into next
week.

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3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I hate saying this, but, with the new pool and a full season to use it, plus the brand new AC unit bring installed in April I say bring it on

I have a pool also and last summer was great...once it got here.  Usually thinking of getting the pool going around Memorial Day but esp last year that was delayed a bit.  It's been early June the past two years before i got the pool going. I like warmer water >76 degrees, so I need to get some sort of solar heater although last summer i didn't really need one.  But that's rare.  It would extend the pool season though by a couple of weeks at each end, which matters around here.  Once March is over i'm ready for full bore global warming char broiled weather.  ;)

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47 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

NE winds off the Dacks and the Tug, which totally sucks ass!

I thought that downsloping wasn't really an issue for these parts? Certainly seems to be this year!

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1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Ch 2 hedging on the over for our first round of betting... 4-7”?

 

5BE64D86-BC79-4E86-B215-E6E12E0053DE.jpeg

I have noticed a WSW or SW component and adding some lake moisture. 

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1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

I have a pool also and last summer was great...once it got here.  Usually thinking of getting the pool going around Memorial Day but esp last year that was delayed a bit.  It's been early June the past two years before i got the pool going. I like warmer water >76 degrees, so I need to get some sort of solar heater although last summer i didn't really need one.  But that's rare.  It would extend the pool season though by a couple of weeks at each end, which matters around here.  Once March is over i'm ready for full bore global warming char broiled weather.  ;)

We have tossed around the idea of a gas heater as our youngest one has had 3 heart surgeries since birth and her average pulse ox is upper 80’s at best. The warmer water is more beneficial so she doesn’t get cold too quickly. It would also lengthen the amount of time we can enjoy the pool. We have the solar cover as well and it does work well especially in full sun. 

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