Significant snow - ice or rain Feb 10-12

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is a few inches for the city 

What a turn

under 3 total don't have access to Kuchera

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

under 3 total don't have access to Kuchera

10:1

It is going to be higher than that .

 

3-5 for the NYC area on the Kuchera.

[jm1220]

I’m not sure ratios would be great if there’s  still slight lift in the DGZ. Cold temps alone don’t cause high ratios. If we get light stuff that keeps getting eaten by dry air ratios might not be great. It can be cold but also have bad snow growth and needles/sand that’s 10-1 ratio. 

[HVSnowLover]

14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’m not sure ratios would be great if there’s  still slight lift in the DGZ. Cold temps alone don’t cause high ratios. If we get light stuff that keeps getting eaten by dry air ratios might not be great. It can be cold but also have bad snow growth and needles/sand that’s 10-1 ratio. 

Agree ratios wont be great unless there are heavy bursts. I think 1-3 is a good call for the city and probably up to I287, closer to 3 more likely right along the coast of the city and the south shore of LI.  

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree ratios wont be great unless there are heavy bursts. I think 1-3 is a good call for the city and probably up to I287, closer to 3 more likely right along the coast of the city and the south shore of LI.  

Another 30 mile or so bump north would be best. There’ll also be a dry airmass for this to deal with. 

[MJO812]

Sref wetter

[Brian5671]

This trended so far north DC barely gets 2 inches now.  

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Sref wetter

I find the SREF is usually too far NW

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

This trended so far north DC barely gets 2 inches now.  

Yea that's unfortunate but they may cash in on the next wave which looks pretty surpressed to the south

[li_wx88]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea that's unfortunate but they may cash in on the next wave which looks pretty surpressed to the south

Have we learned nothing???? 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

This trended so far north DC barely gets 2 inches now.  

Not to be cruel or unfeeling, although I guess it's both, but who the hell cares, better for us.

[HVSnowLover]

15 minutes ago, li_wx88 said:

Have we learned nothing???? 

Virginia Beach got snow once this month so there are occasional storms that don't trend north.

[li_wx88]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Virginia Beach got snow once this month so there are occasional storms that don't trend north.

I know I know, was just having a bit of fun with it. No hard feelings.

Those guys just screwed more often than not. 

[Brian5671]

18z NAM looks similar to12z so that may be it for north bumps

[wdrag]

 

235PM Wednesday update (10th): Obs thread updated at 225PM with little change from my 7A Wednesday update;  I still think be wary of the dry models for the 12th per the brief potential 6 hr sw 850MB  flow WAA pulse (light snow PA/NJ). 13th...seems like steady snow develops for sure late on the 13th in our subforum,.  Please see the 14th-18th thread on amounts for the 14th.  

[winterwx21]

18z NAM gets 3 inches up to north-central NJ. I think the winter weather advisories need to be extended up to Hunterdon, Somerset and Middlesex counties.

[jm1220]

Whenever you see that ESE dip through PA and NJ in the precip/snow amounts you know there’s a dry airmass this will be up against. We’ll have to see what can make it through our area. Might be quite a battle getting decent snow especially in northern areas. 

[Rtd208]

Winter Weather Advisory just issued here for 2-4" of snow.

[gmendevils8204]

Is a start time locked down?

[Lawnguyland]

14 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Winter Weather Advisory just issued here for 2-4" of snow.

Same here for LI, NYC   2 to 3 inches. Yay!

[MJO812]

WWA for NYC

2-3 inches

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

What a fantastic winter that was.

There was a deep snow pack like the current one through much of the winter, and that ice storm on top of the pack which stuck on everything for days was for lack of a better word breathtaking in its beauty.

Of course the record cold was the only time in my life I've experienced actual temperatures below -20°. During the coldest morning of January 1994 most recording stations in the HV were -20° or below, Newburgh, Middletown, Poughkeepsie all were sub -20°. I personally recorded -23° in Highland Mills in Orange County. There were readings below -30° within 50 miles of NYC in NWNJ, I think it was Sparta or Sussex hit -34°, someone can check me on that.  And of course this was all temperatures not wind chills. For those that think it can't get that cold around here it does occasionally happen.

I wasn't quite born yet for the January 1961 cold outbreak, Which outdid the January 1994 outbreak,  but I do know Poughkeepsie hit their all time low of -30° for that one. Those temperatures are not just exclusive to the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains.

As we're getting further and further away from it, we're realizing more and more how exceptional of a winter that truly was.  It had everything, extreme arctic cold, big snowstorms, big ice storms, 30 storms for the whole winter, a storm every 3 days, the city ran out of salt, and if TWC had been naming storms back then, they would have run out of several alphabets worth of names haha.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

What a fantastic winter that was.

There was a deep snow pack like the current one through much of the winter, and that ice storm on top of the pack which stuck on everything for days was for lack of a better word breathtaking in its beauty.

Of course the record cold was the only time in my life I've experienced actual temperatures below -20°. During the coldest morning of January 1994 most recording stations in the HV were -20° or below, Newburgh, Middletown, Poughkeepsie all were sub -20°. I personally recorded -23° in Highland Mills in Orange County. There were readings below -30° within 50 miles of NYC in NWNJ, I think it was Sparta or Sussex hit -34°, someone can check me on that.  And of course this was all temperatures not wind chills. For those that think it can't get that cold around here it does occasionally happen.

I wasn't quite born yet for the January 1961 cold outbreak, Which outdid the January 1994 outbreak,  but I do know Poughkeepsie hit their all time low of -30° for that one. Those temperatures are not just exclusive to the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains.

in my other house in the Poconos we reached -22 and there was enough snow to cut my house in half (a two story house became a one story house lol).....I think that's still the record snowfall season at Allentown.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

It works in our favor for weak systems like tomorrow. So we get a nice light snow event. But MJO 7 with too amped a system can present ice issues. 

what was happening in 1993-94 that caused so many storms all season and many of them being mixed/ice storms?

JFK still got close to 50 inches so it was pretty amazing.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The record Arctic high that slips south will provide plenty of CAD and low level Arctic air. But ice will be an issue with more amplified systems. We may need to get to within 2-3 days of each event to know how amped up they are going to be. Less amped is better if you want more snow and less ice.

any chances of us finally having a widespread below 0 outbreak?

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

January 1961 lowest temp recorded on LI at Upton   -23F.    Crazy stuff.

 

I wonder if Feb 1934 was colder there.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The HREF bumped up. 1”-2” amounts are possible in NYC with the higher figure more likely in parts of Queens, Brooklyn and Staten Island than Central Park.

sounds like 2" likely for SW Nassau Don?

 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

what was happening in 1993-94 that caused so many storms all season and many of them being mixed/ice storms?

JFK still got close to 50 inches so it was pretty amazing.

 

Insane -EPO and a very large polar vortex.  I think probably there was some degree of SSW that winter.  The NAO was largely positive though while the AO was mostly negative all winter.  93-94 was fairly similar to 13-14 or 14-15 (I forget which one now lol).  This event tonight is sort of a baby version of the February 8 94 event. The upper level pattern across the country is actually almost the same and the dynamics of the set up similar.  Models also brought that 100 or more miles north inside 48 hours.  That event appeared to be a DC and PHL snow storm up until the 00 runs on 2/7.  The big difference is that event was multiple waves riding along the boundary where as this is just one so you’re not going to see 2 foot amounts like Cape Cod saw in that storm.  It’s a much shorter duration event 

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what was happening in 1993-94 that caused so many storms all season and many of them being mixed/ice storms?

JFK still got close to 50 inches so it was pretty amazing.

 

We had a SE ridge, but not overpowering combined with brutal cold air-storms ran along the boundary every few days & we were on the right side of the boundary.  Dec was very warm  and then it flipped on a dime very end of month.

[weatherpruf]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

As we're getting further and further away from it, we're realizing more and more how exceptional of a winter that truly was.  It had everything, extreme arctic cold, big snowstorms, big ice storms, 30 storms for the whole winter, a storm every 3 days, the city ran out of salt, and if TWC had been naming storms back then, they would have run out of several alphabets worth of names haha.

 

Without even looking I'm guessing 93-94....