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2/6/-2/7 Snow Threat


wncsnow
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4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

18z euro 

 

0552189C-6A93-412A-8AEF-DC2723826976.jpeg

Euro def the most southeast of guidance. Has been very topsy turvy as of late. Having a hard time really entrusting in it regardless of what my backyard sees. All models have made a significant jump albeit CMC is leaning more toward the camp of the Euro. Interesting to see what ensembles show but we’re almost at the time of the op being the predominant choice to view. 

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9 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Euro def the most southeast of guidance. Has been very topsy turvy as of late. Having a hard time really entrusting in it regardless of what my backyard sees. All models have made a significant jump albeit CMC is leaning more toward the camp of the Euro. Interesting to see what ensembles show but we’re almost at the time of the op being the predominant choice to view. 

Yeah I like that narrow strip being over me , but I believe it will be more expansive to the NW ...

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I will say, front end thumps tend to over perform... imo. Lots of times model under estimate how much liquid falls out ahead of the waa. Wouldn’t be totally shocked to see a couple inches across a wide swath of our area before changing over. I remember around 2005 or 2006 I got 3 inches from a front end thump that looked like it would snow quickly changing to rain.

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Yep. One more south trend and we will be in a good spot. I do think we get sleet here either way 

Yeah me too, I had a feeling the Nam might settle down a little bit. The 12km had more of a snow hole around area, not sure what that's about but it almost looked like the moisture shifted as the low moved from the gulf to Atlantic coast. That definitely hurt us that run. 

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Just now, SnowDawg said:

Wow warm nose is killer. Soundings have me at or below freezing the whole event but after the few hour thump at the start it's all sleet and zr from there. Warm nose is way up there compared to normal though, like 750-775 mbar.

Yup its a super high warm nose. Strange. 

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