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2/6/-2/7 Snow Threat


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3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Is the ICON stalled as well?

Icon is def late. Normally 945ish is initiation.

RGEM out to 24hrs. That’s gonna be a big indicator for me what we have going on or at least to an extent because both it and CMC were further south and east at 12/18z

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Icon is def late. Normally 945ish is initiation.

RGEM out to 24hrs. That’s gonna be a big indicator for me what we have going on or at least to an extent because both it and CMC were further south and east at 12/18z

RGEM coming in further south and east.

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Ok now I see. It’s a much lighter event and doesn’t have the fireworks like nam and gfs. Battle of the models continue. I fully expect gfs to have some crazy juiced run. Just that gut feel here. 

Yeah crazy the difference between Nam and RGEM. Mountains and Virginia go from big storm to basically nothing... Model mayhem, that's why it's so hard to write anything in stone more than a day or two out. 

models-2021020500-f069.snku_acc.us_ma.gif

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Just now, WXNewton said:

Yeah crazy the difference between Nam and RGEM. Mountains and Virginia go from big storm to basically nothing... Model mayhem, that's why it's so hard to write anything in stone more than a day or two out. 

models-2021020500-f069.snku_acc.us_ma.gif

Not live or die but to some extent the RGEM is somewhat of a red flag for me because it’s a pretty good indicator what we’re gonna see out of the cmc. I will say tho as of late Nam has been running dry so for it to be amped and wet leads me to believe gfs will follow suit. Beyond that would be really nice for the para to wake up from its all day nap lol. 

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I believe the RGEM is better when we get to under 48 Hrs...

Yeah and seems like it runs the coldest of all the models. During the last potential ice storm it had major accumulations for me and as it got close to go time it lost the freezing rain theory. 

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Just now, WXNewton said:

Yeah and seems like it runs the coldest of all the models. During the last potential ice storm it had major accumulations for me and as it got close to go time it lost the freezing rain theory. 

Oh there’s no doubt it runs way too cold. I think it was up to 8 degrees too cold last storm up this way. 

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Is it only me or do the sleet/frz rain issues seem a little odd in this setup? I’ve lived in WNC my whole life and I can’t think of too many times a low in that position had a ton of sleet or frz rain mixing in. Usually just rain or snow and no in between with sharp gradients. 

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