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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

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Just now, TheDreamTraveler said:

i've been thinking the harrisburg area gets way less since that's just how the patterns been the past few weeks. we've ended up with way less snow/ice/sleet than modeled or forecast each time lol so wouldnt surprise me if this happens again and we get way less than the 6-9 inches called for. really sucks that none of these storms have been overachievers here

There is always one. Just watch the snow come down. 

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

Great writeup. I think this is so a game time decision and really not a forecast. 

Most models put us into a range of 4 to 8 inches, so I think that is a reasonable forecast at this time.

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I didn't even notice they cut our amount down from 6-9 inches to up to 6 inches in the latest winter storm warning update. i had a feeling. was going to mention it yesterday but didn't want to drag down peoples excitement. kinda annoying every time we get to the final run with these storms it ends up being less. 6in is still decent. there's always a chance we could overperform especially since where it sets up is pretty crucial but keeping my expectations in check

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51 minutes ago, pirates21 said:

Starting to pick up pretty good over on the other side of the city Mag. I’m near 99. Covering cars now

Yep same over here, a nice moderate pixie dust snow for now. Getting this early swath of snow to set over the area is gonna be a big part of hopefully getting pretty well into our forecast range of the advisory (3-7"). I think we're in pretty good shape. There's a patch of some more enhanced echoes on radar over JST that should try to shift this way here within the next hour or so. 

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Much better flakes now and moderate-heavy rate. Binocular check of the snowboard with the flood light on already looks like over a half inch. 

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19 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Much better flakes now and moderate-heavy rate. Binocular check of the snowboard with the flood light on already looks like over a half inch. 

Just was outside. Coming down at a very nice rate right now. Quickly approaching an inch. Looks like this two parter could last well into tomorrow evening 

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Moderate snow and 24ºF. Midnight measurement is 1.3" of straight powder snow in a bit under 2 hrs since it got going. Not too bad considering the near term stuff late this afternoon and early evening didn't have this even starting here until about now or a bit later. 

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6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Moderate snow and 24ºF. Midnight measurement is 1.3" of straight powder snow in a bit under 2 hrs since it got going. Not too bad considering the near term stuff late this afternoon and early evening didn't have this even starting here until about now or a bit later. 

Well, speaking of delayed starts...the current 04Z run of the HRRR doesn't have accumulating snow reaching MDT until 9:30am and its first inch until 11:00am.

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2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Well, speaking of delayed starts...the current 04Z run of the HRRR doesn't have accumulating snow reaching MDT until 9:30am and its first inch until 11:00am.

The next run will show 3 inches by 11 am and then the next run will show partly cloudy with a high of 60 at the same time.

The hourly swings on the HRRR are bizarre.

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Here in Williamsport there is a coating of snow over everything now.  The small flakes are coming down fast but not heavy.

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I just came from that direction and still nothing sadly. Btw why did we get downed to only 6 inchs vs what they were calling for earlier? I thought things were looking juiced so it should go up?

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updated now says 5-7 and will last through 10 am fri. Tho one thing that is worrying me forecast low low 20s still sitting at 28 the clouds came in hella fast yesterday mostly cloudy before 6 didnt allow for much drop in temps.

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Its like 2 storms ago I was under deep blues for 4 hours and nothing then as soon as it got a few shades lighter it started snowing. That puzzled the heck out of me

 

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one thing i noticed this year vs other years. They no longer have person verifications on if its snowing on not its all radar based. Its said its been snowing here all night since the radar showed snow. Same with other storms this year. in years past they were confirmed observations by weather sites or people reporting.

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Yeah this year has been funny with the future cast and what ends up going down. Still nothing here in my area 

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Not sure where to pile up all the virtual snow this morning. Let’s hope this gets going soon. Dry, overcast, 27 in Hershey/Hummelstown.

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I just hope I see something soon so many of you are saying you have seen flakes or seen accum and still nothing for me lol. some of you are 20 mins away in all directions its this a cruel joke on me lol.

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