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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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4 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said:

This thing is hauling according to radar. We will be done by 1. Plus NWS put this out below us:

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2021/md0119.html

If you believe there is a second part to this storm than it won't be over even if there is a lull. It just depends on the many coastals that are coming up from the south. 

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Enjoying solid moderate to almost heavy with larger flakes at the moment.  But if you believe the radar, at least for now it could be the last hoorah for me.  Nothing on radar to my southwest with the back edge less than 20 miles to my west.  Temp down to 23.9 with heavier rate drawing down colder air.

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2 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said:

Looks like it has changed over outside.  

I have the big random flakes that you described earlier, and are often the indicator that the pingers are about to recommence here. We'll see - just about 4" here now. 

Again - I'm really glad that you joined our thread. Good to have eastern Lanco well represented! 

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Here in Carlisle at 11:00am the snow has ended.  Looks like there's going to be a LONG lull.  2.1" storm total.  Temp back up to 24.4 degrees.  I had the heaviest rates of the storm about 20 minutes ago right before some sleet began to mix in.  I'm not giving up totally but I think the HRRR is going to be right.  (Sorry for sounding so down!  Not usually like this but all 3 big storms this winter I underperformed by a good margin.)  I know it will snow again, maybe this Monday?

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All sleet here now and the storm is about over. Wow I'm sorry, but what a disappointment...literally only 2 days ago, models were at least 6 inches of snow through a good chunk of southern PA. I barely made it to 4 inches. The way models this year dry up right before these storms is laughable. 

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4 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Here in Carlisle at 11:00am the snow has ended.  Looks like there's going to be a LONG lull.  2.1" storm total.  Temp back up to 24.4 degrees.  I had the heaviest rates of the storm about 20 minutes ago right before some sleet began to mix in.  I'm not giving up totally but I think the HRRR is going to be right.  (Sorry for sounding so down!  Not usually like this but all 3 big storms this winter I underperformed by a good margin.)  I know it will snow again, maybe this Monday?

GFS wants to rain on the Monday parade as of now. Hang in there and hope you can get a 2nd slug of moisture coming in. 

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14 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Here in Carlisle at 11:00am the snow has ended.  Looks like there's going to be a LONG lull.  2.1" storm total.  Temp back up to 24.4 degrees.  I had the heaviest rates of the storm about 20 minutes ago right before some sleet began to mix in.  I'm not giving up totally but I think the HRRR is going to be right.  (Sorry for sounding so down!  Not usually like this but all 3 big storms this winter I underperformed by a good margin.)  I know it will snow again, maybe this Monday?

Hrr goes to 18hrs, and many models have light snow well into tomorrow morning.  While best accums may be over for some, there is more snow to come.  Consider it mood flakes.  

BTW, your concern was my concern from days ago when N and W were showing big totals, greater than the LSV.  This storm has a progressive look to it (thinking trough axis)t, and not a diggy one (that is what you needed for the coastal numbers to verify.  Its more of a wave to weak coastal (and that's not bad at all)....but is just not good for everyone.  I think conshohocken folks approve of this event by a 14" margin.  

It seems like a general 4-8 is reasonable (NW to SE gradient), so I'm not complaining a bit...even as i hear pingers mixing in w/ my 4".  If I can eek 2 more inches out through tomorrow morning....thats fantastic.  

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Just now, Superstorm said:


Same here. I just want to get to 5” to meet WSW.


.

That would be nice - my 2 personal objectives were to reach my range, which I set to exceed my seasonal average, which I did. Right now I'm at 31.5" for the season, which is a HUGE win during a Nina. I went into the winter, and I shared this with Daxx, expecting 15-20" for the season. (he was more bullish than I was) So, anything from here on out is gravy. 

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11 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Depends what model you go with, but if hrrr is right, this thing is mostly over.

 

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Hrr goes to 18hrs, and many models have light snow well into tomorrow morning.  While best accums may be over for some, there is more snow to come.  Consider it mood flakes.  

BTW, your concern was my concern from days ago when N and W were showing big totals, greater than the LSV.  This storm has a progressive look to it (thinking trough axis)t, and not a diggy one (that is what you needed for the coastal numbers to verify.  Its more of a wave to weak coastal (and that's not bad at all)....but is just not good for everyone.  I think conshohocken folks approve of this event by a 14" margin.  

It seems like a general 4-8 is reasonable (NW to SE gradient), so I'm not complaining a bit...even as i hear pingers mixing in w/ my 4".  If I can eek 2 more inches out through tomorrow morning....thats fantastic.  

Well folks - going by these 2 posts, it's pretty clear who posts positively and who posts negatively. :)

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Horst (2 minutes ago) on more snow prospects:

The back edge is coming fast! A classic warm advection event that plays out in ~6 hours...and so the worst will soon be behind us. As mentioned earlier, a trailing upper-level system may yield a bit of "bonus" light snow tonight into Friday AM. But we'll see about that...

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