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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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Just now, MAG5035 said:

Pretty close. MDT is getting 14.1 Kuchera on 1.36" QPF.

nam-218-all-ma-total_precip_inch-3692800.thumb.png.228e57a5e91140e77d85472ef8c47fde.png

 

I noticed a slower less progressive look at 12z wrt MSLP eekin its way NE off the Chessy bay area.  Was hoping that was legit as its likely helping w/ backbuiling of qpf for part 2 of the event.  Love it.

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York and Lancaster WSW version - 

WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...York and Lancaster Counties.
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The caution with this NAM run is indeed is it having trouble where to focus.  The primary surface low (if you count the lowest pressure as primary)  is actually off the VA coast at hour 54 not in the Gulf as some maps show.  There are at least 3 areas of low pressure at hour 54 so the Nam is fighting with the "ejection of energy in pieces" issue the Globals have been as well. 

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WSW headline for the rest of the region 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
335 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

PAZ017>019-026>028-035-036-049>053-056>059-063-064-170845-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0007.210218T0800Z-210219T1800Z/
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-
Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-
Including the cities of DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg,
State College, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown,
McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville,
Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg,
Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, and Gettysburg
335 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a
  light glaze possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of heavy snow is possible Thursday
  morning into the afternoon, especially in south-central
  Pennsylvania.
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14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The caution with this NAM run is indeed is it having trouble where to focus.  The primary surface low (if you count the lowest pressure as primary)  is actually off the VA coast at hour 54 not in the Gulf as some maps show.  There are at least 3 areas of low pressure at hour 54 so the Nam is fighting with the "ejection of energy in pieces" issue the Globals have been as well. 

It's a pretty weak low pressure system overall that's trying to press up into what will be a much better positioned high pressure this go around. I don't think it's really fighting anything, it's actually more focused with a singular significant press of overrunning precip vs the Euro or the ||GFS which seems to have two separate surges of heavier precip. Euro op looked somewhat stronger with the high pressure  so that likely had a hand in kind of focusing on the southern tier more. The surface "low" you see west of the mountains is part of the overall low pressure area but the colder denser air draining down via the high pressure in place gives it that two low look. This is an A with a pretty weak surface low. Classic overrunning look. 

nam-218-all-conus-mslp-3682000.thumb.png.633d5f7b071e08f3d44c13ea1fe49da6.png

 

 

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6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

It's a pretty weak low pressure system overall that's trying to press up into what will be a much better positioned high pressure this go around. I don't think it's really fighting anything, it's actually more focused with a singular significant press of overrunning precip vs the Euro or the ||GFS which seems to have two separate surges of heavier precip. Euro op looked somewhat stronger with the high pressure  so that likely had a hand in kind of focusing on the southern tier more. The surface "low" you see west of the mountains is part of the overall low pressure area but the colder denser air draining down via the high pressure in place gives it that two low look. This is an A with a pretty weak surface low. 

nam-218-all-conus-mslp-3682000.thumb.png.633d5f7b071e08f3d44c13ea1fe49da6.png

 

 

Yea, its very weak but if you notice the SLP in the gulf just sort of hangs around while the precip cuts off up north a bit after 48.  On 57 it shows the low in SC and 3 hours later it is off NJ and scoots out to sea.  I guess the point of my post is that this is not a typical Gulf low and that this really is a bit of a hybrid  overrunning situation with potential big changes last minute.  

 

image.png.5462273de80697097988b7cc0e788aff.png

 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, its very weak but if you notice the SLP in the gulf just sort of hangs around while the precip cuts off up north a bit after 48.  On 57 it shows the low in SC and 3 hours later it is off NJ and scoots out to sea.  I guess the point of my post is that this is not a typical Gulf low and that this really is a bit of a hybrid  overrunning situation with potential big changes last minute.  

 

image.png.5462273de80697097988b7cc0e788aff.png

 

Again, I think we are dealing with subtle details. This is definitely an overrunning event with a coastal component that could produce or not. If the coastal component produces it than prolongs the event and not a quick hitter type of form that Horst was saying. 

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10 minutes ago, paweather said:

Again, I think we are dealing with subtle details. This is definitely an overrunning event with a coastal component that could produce or not. If the coastal component produces it than prolongs the event and not a quick hitter type of form that Horst was saying. 

LOL.  Discussing the details is why I am here.    

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thru 60 GFS ticks southeast w/ best accums but gives LSV the wiggle room it needed for tomorrows north jog.  If this look holds tonight, I'm thinking this one is a safe bet for down here in southern pa.  540 came south a bit as well.  Little colder is nice and needed and might help w/ ratios a bit.  

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