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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

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5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP is ramping up the zone forecasts for Wednesday night into Friday morning.

Here is the current forecast for Harrisburg.

Wednesday Night
A chance of snow after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. 
Thursday
Snow before 2pm, then snow and sleet. The snow and sleet could be heavy at times. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. 
Thursday Night
Freezing rain and sleet before 1am, then rain or freezing rain between 1am and 5am, then rain, snow, and freezing rain likely after 5am. The sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Friday
Snow likely before 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

All in! 

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I would love to know what is happening under that lake effect band heading south on Lake Michigan and the southern storm heading north into the same area. I am assuming insane rates. Never seen that before! 

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38 minutes ago, Cambria County Wx said:

Just went outside to bring in jugs of water, more sleet than freezing rain now...60/40. Cars are getting covered in ice, almost slipped.

Looks like a pretty heavy area of precip about ready to get to your neck of the woods within the next 30 min. 

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59 minutes ago, Caveman said:

Was on I-81 from Wilkes Barre south to I-78 couple of hours ago; light freezing drizzle was icing my truck and windshield, but the roads were still just wet.  But the "sun" was still up at that time...I personally would be in park now that the sun has set...

Too late. Stuck on the ramp to I-81 north. I was going to Tomhicken for another load, but a multi vehicle wreck shut down the freeway... 

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  • Sad 2

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Well of course here in Williamsport we are not going to get over half an inch of plain rain overnight as I wrote earlier.  We will be in the mid 30s tomorrow instead of the lower 40s as predicted earlier. I am hoping I will be able to shovel tomorrow without icing stopping me.  If not we don't get out of the 30s until next Monday.  And of course in the meantime we will get more snow on Thursday.  I just hope I am not stuck with an ice rink.  

Rest Of Tonight
Snow likely this evening. Freezing rain and sleet. Total snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Additional ice accumulation of one quarter to one half of an inch. Lows in the mid 20s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Tuesday
Cloudy. A chance of freezing rain and sleet in the morning. Little or no additional sleet accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. South winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

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The 18z Euro still looks very good leading in to the storm with a well placed High pressure over Quebec as the steady snow gets underway in CTP.
By Thursday evening the High is still in a great spot as the heavy snow still is unloading on all of us from the MD line on north.

I like seeing the snow max zone at this range to our south... plenty of time to get this into the LSV!

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11 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Looks like a pretty heavy area of precip about ready to get to your neck of the woods within the next 30 min. 

Yeah, it's moving in now, definitely trying to become more sleet.....close to 70/30, 80/20 than earlier. 

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10 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Too late. Stuck on the ramp to I-81 north. I was going to Tomhicken for another load, but a multi vehicle wreck shut down the freeway... 

Ugh. At least on the bright side being caught up in the traffic behind the wreck is always better than being caught in the actual wreck itself. 

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1 minute ago, Cambria County Wx said:

Yeah, it's moving in now, definitely trying to become more sleet.....close to 70/30, 80/20 than earlier. 

Hopefully we can stay more sleet for a good bit of this event. Looking at the dual pol products on the radar with the higher tilts it looks like the mixing layer is still pretty high up.. roughly about the 4,000ft level (up closer to the 850mb level). So that gives a good bit of time for droplets to refreeze thru the colder 925mb level to the surface.  

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No ice to speak of here in Carlisle.  Light rain has been falling for the past 2 hours and has accumulated 0.07" so far.  When the rain started the temperature was 31.1 degrees, however, it has been very slowly rising and just now has hit 32.0.  One positive thing is that if the temp doesn't go above 34 degrees with the rain, not much snow melt will occur.  Meanwhile, looking pretty good for Thursday.  NWS 5-11" of snow with sleet possible.  I don't know if I've ever seen them issue accumulations 2 1/2 - 3 days into the future.

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Hopefully we can stay more sleet for a good bit of this event. Looking at the dual pol products on the radar with the higher tilts it looks like the mixing layer is still pretty high up.. roughly about the 4,000ft level (up closer to the 850mb level). So that gives a good bit of time for droplets to refreeze thru the colder 925mb level to the surface.  

Agree. I'm encouraged that KIDI is sitting at 32 right now. Have to watch them to see how strong the warm push is. 

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3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

No ice to speak of here in Carlisle.  Light rain has been falling for the past 2 hours and has accumulated 0.07" so far.  When the rain started the temperature was 31.1 degrees, however, it has been very slowly rising and just now has hit 32.0.  One positive thing is that if the temp doesn't go above 34 degrees with the rain, not much snow melt will occur.  Meanwhile, looking pretty good for Thursday.  NWS 5-11" of snow with sleet possible.  I don't know if I've ever seen them issue accumulations 2 1/2 - 3 days into the future.

My temp has slowly backed down from 33.4 at 6pm to its current 32.2

My point and click is for 4-6" total. I'd be thrilled with that!

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My temp has slowly backed down from 33.4 at 6pm to its current 32.2

My point and click is for 4-6" total. I'd be thrilled with that!

What a roller coaster of model runs we've been on over the past week.  And what changes to the Thursday storm from just 24 hours ago.  If things don't change drastically I'll be very happy with no plain rain after whatever snow/sleet we get.  This event may just get me to seasonal climo.  8" would put me at 32" for the season and we still have 6 more weeks left with snow potential.  Even if everything stopped right now I'd still be very happy after the non-snow winter we just went through last season.

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My work truck was getting some accretion when I left at 5pm from between Blue ridge Summit and Waynesboro.  Imby its currently 32 with light rain. Trash can lids are iced up :icecream:

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

My work truck was getting some accretion when I left at 5pm from between Blue ridge Summit and Waynesboro.  Imby its currently 32 with light rain. Trash can lids are iced up :icecream:

You must have been working on bubblers house 

  • Haha 2

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After on and off freezing drizzle/rain all day here on the Schuylkill/Luzerne border @ 1700ft...intensity just picked up and it flipped to sleet. 

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Screaming southerly winds showing on velocity near the 850mb level, >60knots showing up. Basically the reason why this has WAA aloft and associated mixed precip driving further and further north has been so robust. With the lowest 0.5º tilt you can make out the general wind direction near the radar site as well, which is out of the ESE. That easterly component at the surface is going to keep temps from going much of anywhere.  

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