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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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It seems like more focus is put on this initial wave tonight over the second one Friday and that "round 2" looks more like the feature we see showing Sunday. By the way I'm shocked where guidance has ended up with tonight's wave, SHOCKED I tell ya lol. :rolleyes:

This thing currently pegged for next Tuesday looks like a pretty significant storm. We have the GFS and Euro trying to cut it today. In the case of the Euro, trying to cut into a 1040 high that starts at hr 138 sitting on the Canadian shore of Lake Ontario. I'm not sure why it's such a freezing rain bomb given the thermals. Hr 150 which caps the height of a 6 hr period of significant precip (mostly ZR), has marginal 700 and 850 temps (still at or just below zero) and majority of 925 and 2m temps in the teens to low 20s. In other words, probably a sleet/snow bomb. Honestly like the Canadian's evolution here as general theme is a bigger storm attacking solid high pressure to the north. 

Speaking of themes, there have been a lot of attempts at cutting in this D6-8+ timeframe this winter. That's where the Jan 31-Feb 2 storm started. 

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

It seems like more focus is put on this initial wave tonight over the second one Friday and that "round 2" looks more like the feature we see showing Sunday. By the way I'm shocked where guidance has ended up with tonight's wave, SHOCKED I tell ya lol. :rolleyes:

This thing currently pegged for next Tuesday looks like a pretty significant storm. We have the GFS and Euro trying to cut it today. In the case of the Euro, trying to cut into a 1040 high that starts at hr 138 sitting on the Canadian shore of Lake Ontario. I'm not sure why it's such a freezing rain bomb given the thermals. Hr 150 which caps the height of a 6 hr period of significant precip (mostly ZR), has marginal 700 and 850 temps (still at or just below zero) and majority of 925 and 2m temps in the teens to low 20s. In other words, probably a sleet/snow bomb. Honestly like the Canadian's evolution here as general theme is a bigger storm attacking solid high pressure to the north. 

Speaking of themes, there have been a lot of attempts at cutting in this D6-8+ timeframe this winter. That's where the Jan 31-Feb 2 storm started. 

It certainly looks like my fear of suppression for tonight will end up being unfounded. I'll gladly and publicly admit I was wrong. 

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9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

It seems like more focus is put on this initial wave tonight over the second one Friday and that "round 2" looks more like the feature we see showing Sunday. By the way I'm shocked where guidance has ended up with tonight's wave, SHOCKED I tell ya lol. :rolleyes:

This thing currently pegged for next Tuesday looks like a pretty significant storm. We have the GFS and Euro trying to cut it today. In the case of the Euro, trying to cut into a 1040 high that starts at hr 138 sitting on the Canadian shore of Lake Ontario. I'm not sure why it's such a freezing rain bomb given the thermals. Hr 150 which caps the height of a 6 hr period of significant precip (mostly ZR), has marginal 700 and 850 temps (still at or just below zero) and majority of 925 and 2m temps in the teens to low 20s. In other words, probably a sleet/snow bomb. Honestly like the Canadian's evolution here as general theme is a bigger storm attacking solid high pressure to the north. 

Speaking of themes, there have been a lot of attempts at cutting in this D6-8+ timeframe this winter. That's where the Jan 31-Feb 2 storm started. 

Lol's.  Back when I participated more frequently in the MA forum, they called it "atmospheric memory" or something along those lines.  Thats partly my take on the constant N jog we see.  

OTOH we've been seeing cutters belly under and yeah, that's been my hope as the cold air should be stable enough (not transient),  thats my hope wrt next weeks pair of events, that they can belly under and not attack the cold dome.  I'll be watching the progression in hopes that suspicions verify.

 

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It certainly looks like my fear of suppression for tonight will end up being unfounded. I'll gladly and publicly admit I was wrong. 

dude its all good.  You had a hunch and it didnt work out.....this time.  I've got a bunch of recipes for crow if you need some. 

Don't know anyone here that hasn't tasted it and in fairness you throw a lot of stuff out there (like myself and others), so its bound to happen.  I think many appreciate those of us that are willing to chat storms up and what we think will happen.  Its all good.  Enjoy your "surprise" snow.

 

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WWA was updated down this way from this morning's 2 - 3" to:

208 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday.
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15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It certainly looks like my fear of suppression for tonight will end up being unfounded. I'll gladly and publicly admit I was wrong. 

No biggie, your concerns were definitely valid. You can see today looking at temps across the state how we don't have any actual arctic air or at least extremely dry air in the state and that it does appear the boundary where the icing is occurring in the Ohio Valley looks to be setting up a bit NW with this first wave. This type of gradient stuff doesn't get usually resolved until we're in the short/near term. Still gotta get the snow on the ground too lol. 

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11 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Sterling went to warnings for their mason dixon counties.   4-8”.   

I think CTP may be considering that route for some of the southern tier counties. They did have a brief short term update early this afternoon addressing having to bump up for more QPF and higher ratios and most likely for warning upgrades were the Laurel's counties Cambria and especially Somerset.

Quote
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Prelim updates to the short term trended snow totals higher
based on an uptick in QPF with slightly higher SLRs. This pushes
totals into a high-end advy/low end warning range from the
Laurel Highlands eastward along the southern tier/MD line. We
will continue to make incremental changes based on later
arriving hires model guidance and input from WPC/PBZ/LWX/PHI.
For now, highest confidence for an upgrade to winter storm
warning would be over the Laurels (Cambria and especially
Somerset County).

Def concur with that as the most likely area for more widespread 6+ in the CTP CWA would be those two counties.. where the best overall QPF and high elevations conincide. There's definitely some support on the short term guidance for that and perhaps Bedford/Fulton/Franklin/Adams as well, IMO. Franklin and Adams need 5" in 12hr for a warning criteria so it's certainly in the realm of possibility. 

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2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Always felt that first wave could come north.

I highly doubt that the 2nd wave can come north.


.

In some depictions, and I think Mag alluded to this, the second wave is really just a minoring out Shortwave that looks more like a disorganized group of showers.   I know I am not feeling too down about missing it. Nam still shows a more organized area for the second wave though. 

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2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

They took the 1-3” mention off the grids Thursday night.   

Interesting as their AFD from just minutes ago mentions it:

The main uncertainty for the Commonwealth surrounds fast moving
short-waves in the zonal flow pattern, each with the potential
to bring a period of snow. The first of such systems still looks
like it will impact at least southern portions of the region
(mainly near and south of I-80) Thursday night. At this early
vantage point, a general 1-3" snowfall looks like the most
likely scenario. Another system appears to arrive over the
weekend, with the best potential for snowfall accumulations late
Saturday into early Sunday. There also remains at least some
potential for a brief wintry mix in the Lower Susquehanna
Valley. From this early vantage point, the early part of next
week looks mainly dry, but continued cold.
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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Interesting as their AFD from just minutes ago mentions it:

The main uncertainty for the Commonwealth surrounds fast moving
short-waves in the zonal flow pattern, each with the potential
to bring a period of snow. The first of such systems still looks
like it will impact at least southern portions of the region
(mainly near and south of I-80) Thursday night. At this early
vantage point, a general 1-3" snowfall looks like the most
likely scenario. Another system appears to arrive over the
weekend, with the best potential for snowfall accumulations late
Saturday into early Sunday. There also remains at least some
potential for a brief wintry mix in the Lower Susquehanna
Valley. From this early vantage point, the early part of next
week looks mainly dry, but continued cold.

I don’t think they updated the long term since this morning.   

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Interesting as their AFD from just minutes ago mentions it:

The main uncertainty for the Commonwealth surrounds fast moving
short-waves in the zonal flow pattern, each with the potential
to bring a period of snow. The first of such systems still looks
like it will impact at least southern portions of the region
(mainly near and south of I-80) Thursday night. At this early
vantage point, a general 1-3" snowfall looks like the most
likely scenario. Another system appears to arrive over the
weekend, with the best potential for snowfall accumulations late
Saturday into early Sunday. There also remains at least some
potential for a brief wintry mix in the Lower Susquehanna
Valley. From this early vantage point, the early part of next
week looks mainly dry, but continued cold.

I read that discussion.  The part you posted was actually written last night (where it says Tues PM Update) and not modified to reflect current forecasts.  Sometimes seeing them do that drives me crazy.  They write several paragraphs and then "recycle" them in future updates.  I think they're just lazy at times.

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Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

I read that discussion.  The part you posted was actually written last night (where it says Tues PM Update) and not modified to reflect current forecasts.  Sometimes seeing them do that drives me crazy.  They write several paragraphs and then "recycle" them in future updates.  I think they're just lazy at times.

Yes, I guess.  And I was lazy not going back to prior AFD's but like you mentioned should I really have to do that?  Ha. 

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