Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,895
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Classbravo
    Newest Member
    Classbravo
    Joined

Central PA - Jan 31 to Feb 2 Winter Storm


Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

When I saw the nooners showing the sharper trough axis I quietly felt that we were good. Didnt make sense for easterly solutions and to me and better qpf being thrown back into CT’s seemed like only a matter of time. 

That is some good reasoning.  Next time throw it out there.  Someone will read it between the snow maps.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That is some good reasoning.  Next time throw it out there.  Someone will read it between the snow maps.

or troll the sh!t outta me for sayin it :P

All good pal.  

I will say that this storm wrt modelling has really thrown a few wrenches.  Lets hope the 0z's are close enough that they are runnin outta wrenches.  I dare say that in truth, we really have tomorrows nooners to cycle through before spiking any footballs or makin snow angels in deep powder.  My confidence is as good as it was last night and I'm holding my 10-14" call.

With a little luck we might be able to add 1 or 2 bonus inches.  Been a beauty of a day and lotsa fun no matter what the sno stick reads IMBY.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z NAM really caught on, my Goodness!

Look at that QPF & the snow is now Euro like for the Susquehanna Valley.

 

B16575FC-FA60-47E1-8182-58DB8000B2C3.png

6A11BC2B-4686-4BD8-BE60-F862FC16096E.png

#speechless.

I did NOT expect that.  W ccb's/deform banding showing up we approach 12-14:1 ratios.

Fluff bomb en route.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

or troll the sh!t outta me for sayin it :P

All good pal.  

I will say that this storm wrt modelling has really thrown a few wrenches.  Lets hope the 0z's are close enough that they are runnin outta wrenches.  I dare say that in truth, we really have tomorrows nooners to cycle through before spiking any footballs or makin snow angels in deep powder.  My confidence is as good as it was last night and I'm holding my 10-14" call.

With a little luck we might be able to add 1 or 2 bonus inches.  Been a beauty of a day and lotsa fun no matter what the sno stick reads IMBY.

 

Red tagger just dumped on the euro in ma.  Guess someone is dismayed by its roaming jackpot so defintely a tough storm for modeling.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, AllWeather said:

About 4.5” at chateau de la Moore in Manheim. 

I'll be over w/ snowmobiles tomorrow and show you how to play in this stuff....and not forecast it!!

and I'd say about 5"ish here in Akron.  Gonna measure tomorrow early and see what we get after the rakage ensues tomorrow.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'll be over w/ snowmobiles tomorrow and show you how to play in this stuff....and not forecast it!!

and I'd say about 5"ish here in Akron.  Gonna measure tomorrow early and see what we get after the rakage ensues tomorrow.

Haha bring it! We back to a farm and it’s usually snowmobiles 24/7 when it snows.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Red tagger just dumped on the euro in ma.  Guess someone is dismayed by its roaming jackpot so defintely a tough storm for modeling.

Not wrong though, I don't think it was overly superior to other model guidance trying to reel this thing in the last few days. There was that particular run he referenced where the bullseye was in northern VA but it also spent a whole model cycle being south with the 0z Friday run missing a chunk of the Sus Valley and the very area of eastern PA and northern NJ targeted with what will likely be the biggest totals (2'+) was only getting a trace at best.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, MAG5035 said:

Not wrong though, I don't think it was overly superior to other model guidance trying to reel this thing in the last few days. There was that particular run he referenced where the bullseye was in northern VA but it also spent a whole model cycle being south with the 0z Friday run missing a chunk of the Sus Valley and the very area of eastern PA and northern NJ targeted with what will likely be the biggest totals (2'+) was only getting a trace at best.   

Sorry Just discounted. the EURO, why? One run out of how many. I just want to understand why. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, MAG5035 said:

Not wrong though, I don't think it was overly superior to other model guidance trying to reel this thing in the last few days. There was that particular run he referenced where the bullseye was in northern VA but it also spent a whole model cycle being south with the 0z Friday run missing a chunk of the Sus Valley and the very area of eastern PA and northern NJ targeted with what will likely be the biggest totals (2'+) was only getting a trace at best.   

No doubt.  Seemingly nothing did well this storm and I am not sure any storm has been modeled well this winter.  That is why I am not a fan of the "this model sucks but still going to show us it's output" posts that are so prevalent.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

No doubt.  Seemingly nothing did well this storm and I am not sure any storm has been modeled well this winter.  That is why I am not a fan of the "this model sucks but still going to show us it's output" posts that are so prevalent.  

So you think the EURO sucked? One run outside of that was set on a solution. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, paweather said:

So you think the EURO sucked? One run outside of that was set on a solution. 

I said that imo no model performed well the week leading up to this but it's a tough situation so why would we expect any different. I think the euro was the best of the globals but it was all over the place like the rest. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I said that imo no model performed well the week leading up to this but it's a tough situation so why would we expect any different. I think the euro was the best of the globals but it was all over the place like the rest. 

Gotcha agree to disagree. The EURO was steadfast and why I was, I know the history with this model. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, paweather said:

Let's look to the future as well:

144518772_3657030984333626_8811311001354383658_o.png?_nc_cat=1&ccb=2&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=t_1lBw7EQL4AX_HFYpx&_nc_ht=scontent.fagc1-2.fna&_nc_tp=30&oh=fc3fad18d451eb7f470d9bc96d2f0795&oe=603DDF22

Ok, wrong thread....but did everyone see the 12z Euro for Next weekend?!

It has a Miller A coming out of the gulf heading right up the east coast.

This could be a memorable Winter week.

This snow map is ONLY for the potential storm Next weekend.

66B4B336-6D89-45C8-9BC4-75443BD47FDB.png

98DCC578-7FCF-4FB1-87E8-D99830D231BB.png

176D33CD-A4E5-4E11-978E-399143CB832E.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, paweather said:

Sorry Just discounted. the EURO, why? One run out of how many. I just want to understand why. 

I'm talking about several runs including all of Friday with the op being south and ensemble mean barely getting the 6" line above the mason-dixon line. That 30-40" solution in VA/DC was a couple days before that. Nowhere did I say I discounted it... I just said I didn't think it was superior to other guidance the few days leading up and it wasn't. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...