Brian D Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 My modelling is suggesting a potential strong storm developing. A clash of air masses with this one is more typical of early spring. Strong ridging to the E and NW of the region will allow energy from the W to be funneled NE through the lakes. I might get a chance to have another blizzard from this system, or at least someone might, along with thunderstorms for others. Hope this one pans out. Have a week to see what happens for sure. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Hoosier at the tip of the red arrow. Not a good sign for his snow chances. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 35 minutes ago, madwx said: Hoosier at the tip of the red arrow. Not a good sign for his snow chances. If Brian D is making a winter storm thread, it probably ain't gonna end well for much of the rest of the subforum. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Hoosier said: If Brian D is making a winter storm thread, it probably ain't gonna end well for much of the rest of the subforum. respect the block. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 NE/SD/MN special. Looks like a classic wound up cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I think this is the same storm that that one GFS run had down to about 970 mb in Illinois. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Maybe a high wind/wave event for the lakeshore areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 hours ago, Baum said: respect the block. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Bombs away? Hopefully not a Fargo special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 NE/SD/MN special. Looks like a classic wound up cutter. Keep it little flatter entry to avoid nuking the snowpack and related flooding issues. Both versions of the GFS try for that progression. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Euro has 974mb over Rochester at 12z on Friday. Lots of rain in the warm sector. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 17 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Keep it little flatter entry to avoid nuking the snowpack and related flooding issues. Both versions of the GFS try for that progression. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk no worries. one of my favorite winter storm keys comes into play here; the storm will be pushed south by the existing snowpack. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Another rainer yay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, Baum said: no worries. one of my favorite winter storm keys comes into play here; the storm will be pushed south by the existing snowpack. If only. It needs a lot of work to track south, especially south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: If only. It needs a lot of work to track south, especially south of us. bit o sarcasm there in responding to our resident LOT met. Better chance we flood but as RC stated we push the existing block further east but maybe in time we dislodge some real cold here shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 2:49 PM, Brian D said: My modelling is suggesting a potential strong storm developing. A clash of air masses with this one is more typical of early spring. Strong ridging to the E and NW of the region will allow energy from the W to be funneled NE through the lakes. I might get a chance to have another blizzard from this system, or at least someone might, along with thunderstorms for others. Hope this one pans out. Have a week to see what happens for sure. You got access to models that we don't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 34 minutes ago, Baum said: no worries. one of my favorite winter storm keys comes into play here; the storm will be pushed south by the existing snowpack. That was an accuweather forum favorite 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 42 minutes ago, Powerball said: You got access to models that we don't? Nope, it's my own creation. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 NWS Indy is eluding to it in the afternoon AFD. The primary focus for the extended will be on the potential for a high impact winter storm over parts of central Indiana this weekend. In addition as has been expected since the Fall...this appears to be the opening salvo to the transition to a much more active weather pattern that may set the stage for the second half of the winter. An additional higher impact storm already appears on the horizon near the end of the forecast period later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The angle of approach remains key in this setup as it currently looks this far out with respect to how much of a snowpack destroyer/flood setup this becomes in the LOT CWA and surrounding locations with deep high liquid content snow cover. Also the pace of the occlusion process and occluded cold front sweeping through, which will affect the time spent in the warm sector. 12z operational ECMWF is much more ominous in that regard, while the recent runs of the GFS have been much less so. Still finding it hard how we could avoid any rain in that setup, which would need substantial changes in the longwave pattern. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 15 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: NWS Indy is eluding to it in the afternoon AFD. The primary focus for the extended will be on the potential for a high impact winter storm over parts of central Indiana this weekend. In addition as has been expected since the Fall...this appears to be the opening salvo to the transition to a much more active weather pattern that may set the stage for the second half of the winter. An additional higher impact storm already appears on the horizon near the end of the forecast period later next week. Good. And we both know how conservative and low on wording they are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: Good. And we both know how conservative and low on wording they are It's going to be a rainer. Not just for you, but for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 42 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: It's going to be a rainer. Not just for you, but for most of us. Noticed the IND afd mentioned "higher impact storm" for that one next weekend. Didn't say winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Noticed the IND afd mentioned "higher impact storm" for that one next weekend. Didn't say winter storm. Yup. I know the current storm was once upon a time a cutter of guidance, but this one appears like it will stay that way. Blocking has been steady, but it's gotta weaken at some point. I hate to see what happens with our snowpack prior to the cold coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 3:28 PM, Baum said: respect the block. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I dont think this storm is cutting as far west as what the models have. Too much blocking up north for that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 the pattern is shifting with this weekends storm. The west based -NAO will become an east based -NAO. That's why this storm will be able to cut much further west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 26 minutes ago, madwx said: the pattern is shifting with this weekends storm. The west based -NAO will become an east based -NAO. That's why this storm will be able to cut much further west. agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, Baum said: agreed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: To be honest, even you need a powerhouse cutter to head into the upper lakes to release the cold south. Once established your in the game. Perhaps not until. Sometimes a short term negative is a longer term positive. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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