Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, RedSky said: "The" family member told me Accu weather said 4" of snow last night and "they are never wrong" Is this true and why do I waste my time on any of this lol I see the family member was drinking wine again...the early call was of 4"+ (not 4"). I thought it was a stupid call, anyone could say that. But that's Accu Weather standard early call on any potential big storm...it covers their ass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, mattinpa said: Someone in the NYC forum said GFS ensembles are west. Anyway looks good for at least 4-6” but depending on banding and location of transfer, we still could get 12+”. Getting a little late in the game for ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Getting a little late in the game for ens But can’t they still tell us if the GFS might have been a little south/east? It doesn’t take much change to make a difference here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 My early guess is in line with hazwoper. Except I feel a little bit more comfortable saying 4-6" for Se Pa for now. Warning level event is the baseline. Sucks that it seems like the MECS region wide is off the table but again hopefully this doesn't trend to all out whiff. Don't like the massive shift in guidance. Hopefully it's just one of those blips and the models begin correcting themselves back n and w but unsettling start to 12z to say the least. Another shift like that and se pa is even out of warning snows... I guess I should of know since I said suppression has been the theme all month back at day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 UKIE is stronger with that feature also....let's see what it does at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Birds~69 said: I see the family member was drinking wine again...the early call was of 4"+ (not 4"). I thought it was a stupid call, anyone could say that. But that's Accu Weather standard early call on any potential big storm...it covers their ass. Same family member anytime I mention any kind of weather coming instantly consults weather bug because that is never wrong. Serious annoying family member. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 If our area gets the short end of this storm I'm glad if the mid atlantic area wins out. Their last few winters have been worse than ours. NE area will get their snow as always. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, The Iceman said: My early guess is in line with hazwoper. Except I feel a little bit more comfortable saying 4-6" for Se Pa for now. Warning level event is the baseline. Sucks that it seems like the MECS region wide is off the table but again hopefully this doesn't trend to all out whiff. Don't like the massive shift in guidance. Hopefully it's just one of those blips and the models begin correcting themselves back n and w but unsettling start to 12z to say the least. Another shift like that and se pa is even out of warning snows... Tom Brady 2nd and goal with the game tied at 24 and 5 mins to play. We need a fumble or a pick here! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, The Iceman said: My early guess is in line with hazwoper. Except I feel a little bit more comfortable saying 4-6" for Se Pa for now. Warning level event is the baseline. Sucks that it seems like the MECS region wide is off the table but again hopefully this doesn't trend to all out whiff. Don't like the massive shift in guidance. Hopefully it's just one of those blips and the models begin correcting themselves back n and w but unsettling start to 12z to say the least. Another shift like that and se pa is even out of warning snows... Eskin may nail it! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 UKIE looks like the CMC upstairs. Not horrible at the surface. Step back from the ledge my friend 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, RedSky said: "The" family member told me Accu weather said 4" of snow last night and "they are never wrong" Is this true and why do I waste my time on any of this lol We also need an update from that WIP guy. Maybe Eskin will be right after all. As for the 12Z Euro -- biggest run since the domestication of the dog. Let's stop the bleeding! 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, JTA66 said: We also need an update from that WIP guy. Maybe Eskin will be right after all. As for the 12Z Euro -- biggest run since the domestication of the dog. Let's stop the bleeding! And don't listen to that 98 whatever stations guy, they will say snow is coming and it never does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The goalposts are narrowing and SE PA is still in middle or a dickhair to the left of the best snows. We take. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Para gfs is still a region wide crushing.. this is the new gfs' time to shine!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 UKMET crushes most of the area. Very sharp cutoff north of the Lehigh Valley though. Allentown sees close to a foot while Jim Thorpe and Hazleton only get an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Guys and gals I think this one is going to start edging north again at 18z, maybe we don't end up like the para GFS but a decent 8-12" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, JTA66 said: We also need an update from that WIP guy. Maybe Eskin will be right after all. As for the 12Z Euro -- biggest run since the domestication of the dog. Let's stop the bleeding! Some guy name "Bruce" (not a caller) was on WIP yesterday afternoon predicted 20" for Philly w/blizzard warnings by Mon morning. I like Bruce's thought pattern.. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Some guy name "Bruce" (not a caller) was on WIP yesterday afternoon predicted 20" for Philly w/blizzard warnings by Mon morning. I like Bruce's thought pattern.. Yeah Bruce has been on a few times this month predicting big snowstorms. He's definitely a huge weenie I hope he's correct though 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie Good to see the ukie actually tick northwest. It had actually shown the bleed se yesterday before any other model so hopefully it leads the charge back nw up to game time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birdbean Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Tom Brady 2nd and goal with the game tied at 24 and 5 mins to play. We need a fumble or a pick here! Wheres Brandon Graham when you need him? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 33 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I see the family member was drinking wine again...the early call was of 4"+ (not 4"). I thought it was a stupid call, anyone could say that. But that's Accu Weather standard early call on any potential big storm...it covers their ass. What is wrong with 4+ 3+ days out? It just gives the general public knowledge of potential snow. Look at the models, no one knows. Euro could go even farther south at 12z while others have a foot. So idk. wish we could get a reasonable euro run today, if we do considering every other model gives us decent snow it might be game on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Good to see the ukie actually tick northwest. It had actually shown the bleed se yesterday before any other model so hopefully it leads the charge back nw up to game time While the precip location is good it did increase the confluence wave big time. Just had a stronger upper level low and PVA to make up for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 the NAVGEM is a massive hit, for what its worth (which isn't much) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 What do you all think for South-Central NJ (near Mount Holly)? My sister is supposed to get vaccinated at the South NJ mega site (in Glouchester county) Monday AM, and she is worried about snow impacting her trip to that site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, hazwoper said: the NAVGEM is a massive hit, for what its worth (which isn't much) Definitely better than it showing a miss intersting how far east it is with the low but the precip shield is much larger than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, mattinpa said: Someone in the NYC forum said GFS ensembles are west. Anyway looks good for at least 4-6” but depending on banding and location of transfer, we still could get 12+”. There really is no transfer of energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: There really is no transfer of energy. It is west of the op run. Cmc is also west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Really, the Euro can't be any worse than the 0z so things can only look better for the 12z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: What do you all think for South-Central NJ (near Mount Holly)? My sister is supposed to get vaccinated at the South NJ mega site (in Glouchester county) Monday AM, and she is worried about snow impacting her trip to that site. I'm in the same boat. My significant other has an important doctor's appointment in the same area that she's waited to get for 2 months so she isn't keen on giving it up. I'm trying to convince her to reschedule though, I think mon morning could be pretty bad. Snow starts in the evening on Sunday so there could be 12 hours worth of snow on the ground by Monday AM. Travel could be a nightmare all day Monday but I'd definitely keep a close eye on things the next 24 hours. We re seeing pretty significant changes still each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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