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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

B57B57D8-9495-4E44-88EC-E2C8DEECBCFD.thumb.png.2d7e24073a2d542df3189dc97c32dcc3.png
here we go again down the next rabbit hole. Why not. So this time the TPV is actually on our side and the coldest air in the N Hemisphere is in N America. -NAO. WPO ridge.  Cooler SSTs in Feb. Ok might as well try EVERY possible variation of a good pattern just to prove we’re fooked no matter what lol 

but bamwx.

check out the gfs man....it says there is no 10 day close the blinds like you said a few days ago

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33 minutes ago, Ji said:

but bamwx.

check out the gfs man....it says there is no 10 day close the blinds like you said a few days ago

The bombing Atlantic low combined with the blocking suppressed attempts to ridge out in the east. I’m still skeptical we get a big snow threat in the Feb 4-10 window but I could see some mix/icy scenarios and that look towards mid February is potentially very good. 

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18 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Hey Bristow...see those 60s showing up on the 270 hr plus gfs run? :)

Not until you said that.  It doesn’t snow much when the temps are 60. It’s probably some tiny short wave in South Africa that’s messing things up.  

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After this latest debacle, perhaps its just time to ignore storm tracks in the LR and just focus on thermals.  Seems like the only way out of this mess is to get a legit, long-lasting cold dump into the CONUS.  Unless that happens, seems it is game over.

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Since we can't rely on pattern...let's talk thermals: How's it looking after next week's warm-up? (serious question). And signs of any actual cold?

Day 7/8 ?

Looks like a potential frozen hit to me  . Para showed a hit  and Ukmet definitely looks promising at 144 . Euro also coming in better looking at hour 150:popcorn:

No warmup 

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4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Since we can't rely on pattern...let's talk thermals: How's it looking after next week's warm-up? (serious question). And signs of any actual cold?

I've been checking in everyday on the 18Z GEFS ensemble mean temps.  So far, it is not advertising any notable cold.

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28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Given how this month has gone...I'm not even gonna be convinced of anything until I see legit cold air...

I agree with that assessment.

I'm not saying that just because the GEFS isn't showing cold there can't be cold.  I'm just saying that as of now, the GEFS is not advertising any significant cold.

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12 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I agree with that assessment.

I'm not saying that just because the GEFS isn't showing cold there can't be cold.  I'm just saying that as of now, the GEFS is not advertising any significant cold.

Some decent cold air potential during this period on the EPS. There is a mechanism to inject cold southward between the WPO/Chukchi ridge and the TPV, but most of it ends up out west. For this period, the Pac improves enough to allow the mean trough to shift eastward, but it appears to be transient on the means. A long way out so we will just have to monitor the trends as always.

1612699200-qIEVnhdRRhM.png

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The relaxation looks brief. By mid Feb we look right back into it. 
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I guarantee if everything else there is correct that SE ridge won’t last long. plus even with that ridge the cold is pressing. Look where the boundary is. 
EA41FE87-A2F4-4748-ABFF-EA0E8438AEA1.thumb.png.638367d701d0656357ef6231ebb2570b.png

Looks like the pattern is rebooting only with a lot more cold to work with. 

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14 hours ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Of course they lean warm

Just a small annoyance on what BAMWX says in this tweet:

Model output isn't data, it's information. Data is unstructured, raw material without meaning until structured and aligned with other data. Information is the output of structured data that has meaning and context for users.

Long range looks quite promising. 

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