Ji Posted January 24 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: here we go again down the next rabbit hole. Why not. So this time the TPV is actually on our side and the coldest air in the N Hemisphere is in N America. -NAO. WPO ridge. Cooler SSTs in Feb. Ok might as well try EVERY possible variation of a good pattern just to prove we’re fooked no matter what lol but bamwx. check out the gfs man....it says there is no 10 day close the blinds like you said a few days ago Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 24 33 minutes ago, Ji said: but bamwx. check out the gfs man....it says there is no 10 day close the blinds like you said a few days ago The bombing Atlantic low combined with the blocking suppressed attempts to ridge out in the east. I’m still skeptical we get a big snow threat in the Feb 4-10 window but I could see some mix/icy scenarios and that look towards mid February is potentially very good. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leesburg 04 Posted January 24 Hey Bristow...see those 60s showing up on the 270 hr plus gfs run? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BristowWx Posted January 24 18 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Hey Bristow...see those 60s showing up on the 270 hr plus gfs run? Not until you said that. It doesn’t snow much when the temps are 60. It’s probably some tiny short wave in South Africa that’s messing things up. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cbmclean Posted January 24 After this latest debacle, perhaps its just time to ignore storm tracks in the LR and just focus on thermals. Seems like the only way out of this mess is to get a legit, long-lasting cold dump into the CONUS. Unless that happens, seems it is game over. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 24 Yeah, how do we create good upper air dynamics for thunderstorms? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 24 Finally it looks like around the 3rd or 4th of February we can put this “so called winter” to bed for once and for all. The sun and warmth will be appreciated and no need to waste time tracking potential snow. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24 Since we can't rely on pattern...let's talk thermals: How's it looking after next week's warm-up? (serious question). And signs of any actual cold? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Since we can't rely on pattern...let's talk thermals: How's it looking after next week's warm-up? (serious question). And signs of any actual cold? Day 7/8 ? Looks like a potential frozen hit to me . Para showed a hit and Ukmet definitely looks promising at 144 . Euro also coming in better looking at hour 150 No warmup 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
arlwx Posted January 24 As a back-surgeried warminista, I won't breathe a sigh of relief until Febrrary is ended. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cbmclean Posted January 24 4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Since we can't rely on pattern...let's talk thermals: How's it looking after next week's warm-up? (serious question). And signs of any actual cold? I've been checking in everyday on the 18Z GEFS ensemble mean temps. So far, it is not advertising any notable cold. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24 36 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I've been checking in everyday on the 18Z GEFS ensemble mean temps. So far, it is not advertising any notable cold. Given how this month has gone...I'm not even gonna be convinced of anything until I see legit cold air... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cbmclean Posted January 25 28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Given how this month has gone...I'm not even gonna be convinced of anything until I see legit cold air... I agree with that assessment. I'm not saying that just because the GEFS isn't showing cold there can't be cold. I'm just saying that as of now, the GEFS is not advertising any significant cold. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted January 25 Interesting, so basically could have been worse. Also may shed a bit of light on Feb and March Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted January 25 12 hours ago, cbmclean said: I agree with that assessment. I'm not saying that just because the GEFS isn't showing cold there can't be cold. I'm just saying that as of now, the GEFS is not advertising any significant cold. Some decent cold air potential during this period on the EPS. There is a mechanism to inject cold southward between the WPO/Chukchi ridge and the TPV, but most of it ends up out west. For this period, the Pac improves enough to allow the mean trough to shift eastward, but it appears to be transient on the means. A long way out so we will just have to monitor the trends as always. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted January 25 Way, way out there Rated on a complexity scale 9 out of 10 . I am being generous. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Signs increasing the NAO tanks again in 10-15 days. 3 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 25 Of course they lean warm Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 26 The relaxation looks brief. By mid Feb we look right back into it. I guarantee if everything else there is correct that SE ridge won’t last long. plus even with that ridge the cold is pressing. Look where the boundary is. Looks like the pattern is rebooting only with a lot more cold to work with. 2 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 26 7 hours ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Of course they lean warm The GEFS is trending the wrong way for them. 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leesburg 04 Posted January 26 How does March 4th look i have an outside event that I can't cancel Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted January 26 Growing evidence of real cold into Canada as Feb advances, while the - NAO recycles, along with hopefully some Pac improvement. Vortex remains weak. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mattie g Posted January 26 14 hours ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Of course they lean warm Just a small annoyance on what BAMWX says in this tweet: Model output isn't data, it's information. Data is unstructured, raw material without meaning until structured and aligned with other data. Information is the output of structured data that has meaning and context for users. Long range looks quite promising. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chris21 Posted January 26 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The GEFS is trending the wrong way for them. They’ve always got some point to prove Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 26 12 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: How does March 4th look i have an outside event that I can't cancel March forth with confidence 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 26 Yes please No bamwx tweet for that run???? 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BristowWx Posted January 26 12 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: How does March 4th look i have an outside event that I can't cancel You and I both know you could cancel that event Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 27 After a brief flirtation with merely slightly negative the troposphere NAM tanks again by February 10. It’s becoming clear we will go wall to wall -AO this year. 5 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
