• Member Statistics

    16,544
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Malcolm M
    Newest Member
    Malcolm M
    Joined
WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

B57B57D8-9495-4E44-88EC-E2C8DEECBCFD.thumb.png.2d7e24073a2d542df3189dc97c32dcc3.png
here we go again down the next rabbit hole. Why not. So this time the TPV is actually on our side and the coldest air in the N Hemisphere is in N America. -NAO. WPO ridge.  Cooler SSTs in Feb. Ok might as well try EVERY possible variation of a good pattern just to prove we’re fooked no matter what lol 

but bamwx.

check out the gfs man....it says there is no 10 day close the blinds like you said a few days ago

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Ji said:

but bamwx.

check out the gfs man....it says there is no 10 day close the blinds like you said a few days ago

The bombing Atlantic low combined with the blocking suppressed attempts to ridge out in the east. I’m still skeptical we get a big snow threat in the Feb 4-10 window but I could see some mix/icy scenarios and that look towards mid February is potentially very good. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Hey Bristow...see those 60s showing up on the 270 hr plus gfs run? :)

Not until you said that.  It doesn’t snow much when the temps are 60. It’s probably some tiny short wave in South Africa that’s messing things up.  

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After this latest debacle, perhaps its just time to ignore storm tracks in the LR and just focus on thermals.  Seems like the only way out of this mess is to get a legit, long-lasting cold dump into the CONUS.  Unless that happens, seems it is game over.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Finally it looks like around the 3rd or 4th of February we can put this  “so called winter” to bed for once and for all.  The sun and warmth will be appreciated and no need to waste time tracking potential snow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Since we can't rely on pattern...let's talk thermals: How's it looking after next week's warm-up? (serious question). And signs of any actual cold?

Day 7/8 ?

Looks like a potential frozen hit to me  . Para showed a hit  and Ukmet definitely looks promising at 144 . Euro also coming in better looking at hour 150:popcorn:

No warmup 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a back-surgeried warminista, I won't breathe a sigh of relief until Febrrary is ended.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Since we can't rely on pattern...let's talk thermals: How's it looking after next week's warm-up? (serious question). And signs of any actual cold?

I've been checking in everyday on the 18Z GEFS ensemble mean temps.  So far, it is not advertising any notable cold.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I've been checking in everyday on the 18Z GEFS ensemble mean temps.  So far, it is not advertising any notable cold.

Given how this month has gone...I'm not even gonna be convinced of anything until I see legit cold air...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Given how this month has gone...I'm not even gonna be convinced of anything until I see legit cold air...

I agree with that assessment.

I'm not saying that just because the GEFS isn't showing cold there can't be cold.  I'm just saying that as of now, the GEFS is not advertising any significant cold.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  

Interesting, so basically could have been worse. Also may shed a bit of light on Feb and March  

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I agree with that assessment.

I'm not saying that just because the GEFS isn't showing cold there can't be cold.  I'm just saying that as of now, the GEFS is not advertising any significant cold.

Some decent cold air potential during this period on the EPS. There is a mechanism to inject cold southward between the WPO/Chukchi ridge and the TPV, but most of it ends up out west. For this period, the Pac improves enough to allow the mean trough to shift eastward, but it appears to be transient on the means. A long way out so we will just have to monitor the trends as always.

1612699200-qIEVnhdRRhM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Way, way out there

Rated on a complexity scale  9  out of 10 . I am being generous. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The relaxation looks brief. By mid Feb we look right back into it. 
77CE54F6-E780-4B36-A12C-1B63CA69BBAA.thumb.png.84dcba434e861227290cbdd757c4220c.png

I guarantee if everything else there is correct that SE ridge won’t last long. plus even with that ridge the cold is pressing. Look where the boundary is. 
EA41FE87-A2F4-4748-ABFF-EA0E8438AEA1.thumb.png.638367d701d0656357ef6231ebb2570b.png

Looks like the pattern is rebooting only with a lot more cold to work with. 

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Growing evidence of real cold into Canada as Feb advances,  while the - NAO recycles, along with hopefully some Pac improvement.

Vortex remains weak.    

 

 Ensemble plume

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Of course they lean warm

Just a small annoyance on what BAMWX says in this tweet:

Model output isn't data, it's information. Data is unstructured, raw material without meaning until structured and aligned with other data. Information is the output of structured data that has meaning and context for users.

Long range looks quite promising. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The GEFS is trending the wrong way for them. 

They’ve always got some point to prove

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

How does March 4th look i have an outside event that I can't cancel 

March forth with confidence 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

How does March 4th look i have an outside event that I can't cancel 

You and I both know you could cancel that event 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

459DF644-38A9-42BE-B329-9D68A4337813.png.acc288f7ca974b59840658ec32eea903.png

After a brief flirtation with merely slightly negative the troposphere NAM tanks again by February 10.  It’s becoming clear we will go wall to wall -AO this year. 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.