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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s a temporary window before pac puke starts to invade again but there is a really good window of a few days as the pattern retrogrades and essentially reboots back to where we started. That is often how we get a east coast storm.  It’s why we usually warm up soon after. 

Wonder if we recycle the pattern and it actually produces possibly later in February even though many have written February off

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Just now, CAPE said:

The one that works apparently cannot be sustained for long enough to do us any good, given the inherent base state, and I don't mean just the Nina.

As you are aware some claim the Nina is a non-player compared to the new regime that has set up over the past few years. Referring to the new base state. 

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

@psuhoffman, just curious what would you say the odds are that DCA measures 1” of snow in January at this point?

That’s a pretty low bar. I still think the period holds the most potential we will see. I covered why at the end of my post to Frd. This threat around the 25 isn’t a done deal yet either.  It’s far enough out to see things reverse. But the last 24 hours of trends have been discouraging.  Everyone wanted that N pac trough to relax.  It did. And so instead of getting mid latitude pac puke we get a heat flux from the tropical pac up through the gulf and pumps a ridge in front of the trough out west. 

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This is leaning towards a 94/95, 2005/2006 type deal where we hope we get 1 good secs/mecs although I'm still remaining positive at the moment. There are still more positive signs that we score and the window should be at least 2 weeks.

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The GFS is earning its goofus nickname. Looks like a completely different model every time it runs. Look at the cmc. Far more likely scenario IMO

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Lol ok so what we were looking at last week was a great look but today's not so great look was just a progression from the great look to the not so great look? Ok now I'm really wondering what we are doing here?

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3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

This is leaning towards a 94/95, 2005/2006 type deal where we hope we get 1 good secs/mecs although I'm still remaining positive at the moment. There are still more positive signs that we score and the window should be at least 2 weeks.

Delayed usually means denied for us lol.

I was much more optimistic a week ago. 

It just seems every time an issue gets resolved another pops up to insure we miss either south or north.

If you loop the last several days of GFS runs it's comical or sad how many waves miss us to the south and then we have a cutter then another wave misses to the south. 

It's really hard to beleive how much we need to go right for it to snow.

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I mean c’mon. It took a low from western KY straight north to Michigan. I’ll put money that that doesn’t happen

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I mean c’mon. It took a low from western KY straight north to Michigan. I’ll put money that that doesn’t happen

Basically what we're looking at today only pertains to today obviously and not what the weather will be in two weeks...we've been duped!! Just like at the beginning of each football season thinking the Vikings can win.

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GEFS through day 7 looks better than 6z.  Ridge in the east that connects to the Greenland ridge is weaker.

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7 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Delayed usually means denied for us lol.

I was much more optimistic a week ago. 

It just seems every time an issue gets resolved another pops up to insure we miss either south or north.

If you loop the last several days of GFS runs it's comical or sad how many waves miss us to the south and then we have a cutter then another wave misses to the south. 

It's really hard to beleive how much we need to go right for it to snow.

The “something” is warmth.  Even when the flow is suppressive it’s not even that cold. The storm that gets suppressed south of us this week is just rain. But when something amplifies were walking a thin line because warmth has no problem blasting north at any excuse.  

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47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

with a 200kt screaming jet

So is the Pacific Jet retraction cancelled?

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looks like a potentially decent cad setup on the gfs, especially if the track is further south.  as is, it would changeover, but it's over a week out.  definitely looks worth tracking.

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11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Delayed usually means denied for us lol.

I was much more optimistic a week ago. 

It just seems every time an issue gets resolved another pops up to insure we miss either south or north.

If you loop the last several days of GFS runs it's comical or sad how many waves miss us to the south and then we have a cutter then another wave misses to the south. 

It's really hard to beleive how much we need to go right for it to snow.

It's just been an incredible uphill climb. At least entering prime time climo makes it easier but when you're on such a bad run you expect everything to go wrong and that has happened even when getting some great mid-range looks. This is still out best shot so far coming up. Have to hope something breaks our way. The 25th is far from settled so maybe we the tide changes. My goal with the 25th system is something measurable then as PSU the next wave is the one that works out. By the end of January you dont want to be punting waves. 

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3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

GEFS through day 7 looks better than 6z.  Ridge in the east that connects to the Greenland ridge is weaker.

It is flatter than the last 2 runs.

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3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

GEFS through day 7 looks better than 6z.  Ridge in the east that connects to the Greenland ridge is weaker.

I thought the same thing...slp mean looks to respond to the lower heights in front as well.  Nice to see an improvement for once....

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Just now, CAPE said:

It is flatter than the last 2 runs.

Still tons of spread too.  Some waves come out quicker and go south.

 

I hope when we discuss ops at range we are not saying “that’s definitely going to happen”.  I merely say what the run shows and not making any definite conclusions.

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Just now, LP08 said:

Still tons of spread too.  Some waves come out quicker and go south.

 

I hope when we discuss ops at range we are not saying “that’s definitely going to happen”.  I merely say what the run shows and not making any definite conclusions.

At this range, I give them a glance then wait for the ensembles. Don't think I have made a single post about an op run in the last few days.

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Does anybody else think the warming of our bay and ocean is having an impact on our winters and reducing our snow climo? 

2 years in a row <1'' in my backyard. I can't say we've had a night that was bone chilling cold either and our highs seem to often be in the low to mid 40s...

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3 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

Does anybody else think the warming of our bay and ocean is having an impact on our winters and reducing our snow climo? 

2 years in a row <1'' in my backyard. I can't say we've had a night that was bone chilling cold either and our highs seem to often be in the low to mid 40s...

There's 70 degree ocean temps just 200 miles to our east. At almost our latitude.

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11 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

Does anybody else think the warming of our bay and ocean is having an impact on our winters and reducing our snow climo? 

2 years in a row <1'' in my backyard. I can't say we've had a night that was bone chilling cold either and our highs seem to often be in the low to mid 40s...

I think it's Nina screwing us over this year.  2013-2014-2015 above normal snowfall is too easily forgotten.  That wasn't that long ago.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately it’s not totally different it’s simply a continuation of the trend at h5 and what the natural effect of that is. 
This 24 hours ago was a block look...

00CA6CBF-916F-400E-BD87-CFB7CC693BCA.thumb.png.b0651490676dd076ee7fb2c60c872d7a.png
This is a full latitude ridge...

83C185A6-0B06-4D5D-BBFA-185B31862D27.thumb.png.5949f5e37519326202b66f79f61758ba.png

the high latitude ridge does us no good if it links up with the mid latitude ridge. What makes it a “block” is the westerly flow under the ridge. If it links it just becomes a HUGE ridge. 

Yep. It’s why I put up caution flags once the Op gfs trended that way. Now, we do have a decent 50/50 and I wouldn’t discount some front end. We could hope that main shortwave trends faster and stays more disconnected from the lower heights west of the block. I just would not expect a pure classic snowstorm at this range. This has sloppy mess written all over it. I also agree that this event may set the stage for the one around the 30th.

See now you’ve trapped lower heights under the block. Youd want that confluence to be a bit better, but it’s a more favorable look.  Then again now we’re talking day 10+ & what can go wrong this winter will go wrong so far, is what it is.

 

 

09588C6A-57E7-4D25-9A54-349FC426FD8D.jpeg

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57 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The one that works apparently cannot be sustained for long enough to do us any good, given the inherent base state, and I don't mean just the Nina.

 

55 minutes ago, frd said:

As you are aware some claim the Nina is a non-player compared to the new regime that has set up over the past few years. Referring to the new base state. 

Agree wrt Nina. The last few years weren’t a Nina.  The pacific problem has been the same regardless of enso.  And frankly we’ve barely had any Nina mid latitude pattern response this year. 

@CAPE but what is the right pattern?  If we have a PNA western ridge there will be a trough off the west coast directing mid latitude pac puke into North America.  Historically that worked so long as it wasn’t a full on vortex over AK because the puke mainly gets directed up and over into Canada and mixes with the cold continental air and the result is it’s not cold but not a furnace and just cold enough to get snow here  But the last few times we tried that the pac jet was too strong and it completely obliterated cold to our north.  Ok so that don’t work anymore.  
 

But what else does?  If we put that ridge off the west coast as an epo ridge because that ridge will be elongated SW to NE (again stronger pac jet and central pac ridge base state effect) it will dump a trough into the southwest.  That hasn’t worked because it pumps a ridge into the east (and news flash the Caribbean/gulf/Atlantic are on fire also lol) and the heat it picks up there pumps a huge ridge.  We thought with a block it would (should) but if, and I do mean if because it’s not close to done yet, that doesn’t work then what?   And relying on the incredibly rare epo NAO ridge bridge block combination isn’t going to save us often.  That’s a super rare look. 
 

So where do we want the ridge/trough alignment out west exactly?  If a pna and an epo doesn’t work?  Yea if we somehow got the once in a blue moon rare broad epo and pna ridge...but that’s even more rare then a epo NAO ridge bridge.  That’s not a typical wavelength.  The epo and pna are typically opposite. If you get a ridge in one you likely get a trough in the other.  And frankly it’s made even less likely with a faster pac jet, and that combo was super rare to begin with. 
 

Our best bet is as everything retrogrades because there was an epo ridge ahead of it and some cold got in, and as the pattern shifts back to a trough in the northeast pac there will be a window before the cold gets blasted out of North America again with a trough in the east. But that’s a temporary window that took weeks if factors going in an intricate progression. I fail to see this golden pac pattern that leads to a permanent snow friendly regime here if a +epo/+pna/-AO/NAO (what we’ve had for 6 weeks!)  doesn’t work anymore. 

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1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Basically what we're looking at today only pertains to today obviously and not what the weather will be in two weeks...we've been duped!! Just like at the beginning of each football season thinking the Vikings can win.

It’s never going to snow again.  Hahah you’re a Vikings fan and....

nevermind.  I had to remind myself that Daniel Synder is the owner of my team.  And my team sucks.  And it has no name.  And we made the playoffs because we were the least suck ass team in our division.  And....

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1 hour ago, frd said:

Wonder if we recycle the pattern and it actually produces possibly later in February even though many have written February off

Later February past President's day doesn't usually work, historically...We either hit it between Jan 20th and that day or not at all barring a rare March exception lol

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

As everything retrogrades the ridge there has pulled back enough that we could get something to amplify along the east coast.  It’s a temporary window before pac puke starts to invade again but there is a really good window of a few days as the pattern retrogrades and essentially reboots back to where we started. That is often how we get a east coast storm.  It’s why we usually warm up soon after. 

So I'm still wondering about February, then...Do we have any more clarity on whether it's gonna be a lost month? If so, I do hope the little window at the end of the month you mentioned produces...But it would be nice not to have to punt Feb!

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16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It’s never going to snow again.  Hahah you’re a Vikings fan and....

nevermind.  I had to remind myself that Daniel Synder is the owner of my team.  And my team sucks.  And it has no name.  And we made the playoffs because we were the least suck ass team in our division.  And....

Really feel bad for you guys...My Ravens may have their playoff struggles at the moment, but I am thankful for having a stable, well-run organization! WFT's owner...mercy above.

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