WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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1 hour ago, HighStakes said:

No commentary on the 54 hour event on the GFS. 

I've liked  this threat since Saturday and now I'm really pumped about it . 

Para ftw 

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23 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Bullseye emoji457.png emoji457.png emoji457.png 5cf0d3ecd726551f94e1917f54a88acc.jpg .

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

"We were somewhere around Barstow ... when the drugs began to take hold."

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34 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The Para is ridiculous.  Lol.  Canadian like with that double tap.

March 20/21 2018 was similar. Severely blocked system that tried to cut and got forced under.   WAA wave followed by secondary redevelopment from the next vort to amplify the originally dying trough. Being March 20 the first WAA didn’t work out in the cities. But as I’ve said that storm moved a few weeks earlier would be a HECS for DC.  Also a Nina year with an NAO block. 

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Insane run of the gfs para. It's a March 58 look alike on the 500 maps.   Only difference is the a initial surface low in the Midwest.  After that the blocking scheme and the evolution of the troff through it are very similar.

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4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Insane run of the gfs para. It's a March 58 look alike on the 500 maps.   Only difference is the a initial surface low in the Midwest.  After that the blocking scheme and the evolution of the troff through it are very similar.

Now u made me look later 

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

March 20/21 2018 was similar. Severely blocked system that tried to cut and got forced under.   WAA wave followed by secondary redevelopment from the next vort to amplify the originally dying trough. Being March 20 the first WAA didn’t work out in the cities. But as I’ve said that storm moved a few weeks earlier would be a HECS for DC.  Also a Nina year with an NAO block. 

It's nice to look at, but there's 0 chance it happens like that.  I can hope and wish tho

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10 minutes ago, Amped said:

Insane run of the gfs para. It's a March 58 look alike on the 500 maps.   Only difference is the a initial surface low in the Midwest.  After that the blocking scheme and the evolution of the troff through it are very similar.

My best friend from childhood was born during that storm.

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3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Insane run of the gfs para. It's a March 58 look alike on the 500 maps.   Only difference is the a initial surface low in the Midwest.  After that the blocking scheme and the evolution of the troff through it are very similar.

Great catch. I’ve studied March 58 extensively. It’s one of my favorite historic storms. 30-50” in this area. Lol.  There actually was a low in the upper Midwest before March 58. It was very weak though... more upper level support then surface feature. But the initial wave on the trough did run up to the lakes with the upper low in upper Midwest. But it was a VERY similar setup with the remnants of a decaying Rex block that had retrograded and was dying in southeast Canada. The combo of that ridge and the vortex in the western Atlantic forced that upper low in the upper Midwest to dive southeast and it eventually activated and phased with the STJ wave along the southeast. But because of the block the upper low progression was very slow so the storm essentially was stuck as the upper support slowly caught up and the system went through several pulses of development.   It was an incredibly similar setup to what guidance is projecting. Doesn’t mean we get THAT same outcome.  That was a Max potential kind of thing where it all came together perfectly. DC would have had 40” of snow had that been in Feb btw. The boundary layer was just too warm that late.  FWIW 1958 has been showing up in pattern analogs a lot the last 2 months. 

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's nice to look at, but there's 0 chance it happens like that.  I can hope and wish tho

Don't lie to us - it's definitely locked in, right?

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Great catch. I’ve studied March 58 extensively. It’s one of my favorite historic storms. 30-50” in this area. Lol.  There actually was a low in the upper Midwest before March 58. It was very weak though... more upper level support then surface feature. But the initial wave on the trough did run up to the lakes with the upper low in upper Midwest. But it was a VERY similar setup with the remnants of a decaying Rex block that had retrograded and was dying in southeast Canada. The combo of that ridge and the vortex in the western Atlantic forced that upper low in the upper Midwest to dive southeast and it eventually activated and phased with the STJ wave along the southeast. But because of the block the upper low progression was very slow so the storm essentially was stuck as the upper support slowly caught up and the system went through several pulses of development.   It was an incredibly similar setup to what guidance is projecting. Doesn’t mean we get THAT same outcome.  That was a Max potential kind of thing where it all came together perfectly. DC would have had 40” of snow had that been in Feb btw. The boundary layer was just too warm that late.  FWIW 1958 has been showing up in pattern analogs a lot the last 2 months. 

 

506816A9-1E7A-4B79-8763-D274635B27C6.gif

C9842E6E-BADB-41E5-ACB6-E58A55DDF501.png

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's nice to look at, but there's 0 chance it happens like that.  I can hope and wish tho

I think the signal for a significant event there is real.  I was off by 3 days from 3 weeks lol.  It’s really a redo of the setup Thursday but with a slightly more amplified wave and a slightly more relaxed flow over the NE. But yea we can’t lock in any details yet. It could end up Richmond or Boston...or maybe it’s finally our turn. 

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15 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Don’t hold out, post that ish 

I did earlier. You wouldn’t like it so much. Kinda screwed N of Philly.  

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Looking at the eps individual members this certainly looks like it has big dog potential. Alot of big hits. Some focus more for the western part of the subforum

 Some are focused more for DC east.

And some are flush hits.

Hopefully we can get this threat under 100 hours.

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Starting to reach for the NC coast at 144 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-mslp_anom-2116000.png

I would think that's a pretty good latitude to come through the Ohio valley at.

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Awesome . Do you have access to March 19 th by chance?

Weaker lead shortwave might be better if you want a bigger event imo that way gives time for main energy to round the bend without the mid levels getting blown too far N. Just looking at how gfs vs euro handle things and what could benefit us idk. 

01A96C14-40A0-4C23-8D98-219E8F22830D.gif

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12 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Weaker lead shortwave might be better if you want a bigger event imo that way gives time for main energy to round the bend without the mid levels getting blown too far N. Just looking at how gfs vs euro handle things and what could benefit us idk. 

01A96C14-40A0-4C23-8D98-219E8F22830D.gif

I think I agree . Waa snows might be weaker but as long as coastal gives us good  love. Maybe we can walk the fine line and get both 

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^Definitely many  similarities to 58' lookin at my Kocin book 

March is my favorite winter month actually.  Always biggie potential. 93'  my alltime fav.Some of the best of the best bombs have come in March . 

58' delivered 4.00" qpf in Carroll county.  Just incredible!!

1942

1993

1962

 

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I would forfeit 10 consecutive winters to experience 93 again. This time being able to follow models in advance of it.

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

^Definitely many  similarities to 58' lookin at my Kocin book 

March is my favorite winter month actually.  Some of the best of the best bombs have come in March . 

58' delivered 4.00" qpf in Carroll county.  Just incredible!!

1942

1993

1962

 

March 1956 and 1960 had impressive storms also. 1960 also had sustained cold. 

I don't think we give the March 2018 enough due. For late March you cant do much better.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I would forfeit 10 consecutive winters to experience 93 again. This time being able to follow models in advance of it.

I followed it on the weather channel back then . Tornado outbreak to blizzard and all in between 

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