• Member Statistics

    16,739
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    DirectSEO
    Newest Member
    DirectSEO
    Joined
WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I gave up and reaped on December 4th or.somerhinn like that.  Seems like a smart call right about now.  

They why you here?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The same thing can be said about Thursday just a few days ago.  

Yea and it’s right to be skeptical. But the signal is there and sooner or later it will snow again. Hopefully sooner. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Lol giving up on a storm 4 days out when it’s progged to our south? No way. 

Idk, pretty much every meaningful factor is trending the wrong way. More progressive wave, less spacing as psu just noted, better tpv press (which actually might help the day 7 event). If anything I think this may continue to trend farther East. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea and it’s right to be skeptical. But the signal is there and sooner or later it will snow again. Hopefully sooner. 

Agree, certainly didn’t mean I don’t think it won’t snow this winter just pointing out it feels like we’re on a hamster wheel.  “Great signal....24 hour snow mean is 2.5” 7 days out.  Can’t ask for more than that” - sounds familiar :)

Hopefully this one pans out!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Idk, pretty much every meaningful factor is trending the wrong way. More progressive wave, less spacing as psu just noted, better tpv press (which actually might help the day 7 event). If anything I think this may continue to trend farther East. 

The phasing of that TPV with both waves to our northeast sets up the next wave. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gefs still some good hits Thursday 

GEFS has more members and is more dispersive than it was prior to the upgrade, so I'm not really surprised.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Warning for those who like happy things, look away.

Wu8dpGF.gif

 

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You have to admire the blazing speed with which the para goes about its business.

My dog also goes about it’s business pretty fast and coincidentally produces the same result as the GFS products.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You have to admire the blazing speed with which the para goes about its business.

I know! So fast. It’s my forecast and I need it now! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When the eps looks great often that one member that sucks is right. But why can’t it ever be this one that’s right...???

C5EF40A1-F913-4845-B950-F377594361FE.thumb.png.2f9627b66a5309d9d05e8177ad842dcd.png

it hits DC with all 3 waves. Like 2-4, 2-4, 20” 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm thankful for the 10" we got in December because if we didn't we'd be in worse shape (snow-wise) than last year at this point.

I guess if I really want it to snow I should sell the plow and blower.  Isn't that how it always works?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

I'm thankful for the 10" we got in December because if we didn't we'd be in worse shape (snow-wise) than last year at this point.

I guess if I really want it to snow I should sell the plow and blower.  Isn't that how it always works?

 

We? Not everyone can claim that victory. 0". In any event, it's another rough year (thus far)

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes I know it wasn't a widespread event.  The 6 hours of ZR was actually pretty bad for us, still have tree limbs needing to be removed from that.  I love the beauty of an ice storm event and even the sound especially at night.  But the huge crack and thumping as large limbs succumb to the weight of the accreting ice come crashing down, the reality sets in of the cleanup that follows which isn't always fun.  And the power flashes and surges that accompany them inconvenience many.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z Eps stronger with HP at 144 for our day 7 threat . This window appears to be a bit better airmass going in . I'm betting more nice hits on the Eps 0z tonight. :weenie:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

When the eps looks great often that one member that sucks is right. But why can’t it ever be this one that’s right...???

I settle for the Euro control,  occasional MECS,  being right once every 5 years.  Such a tease, and hardly ever turns out correct. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Stormfly said:

I'm thankful for the 10" we got in December because if we didn't we'd be in worse shape (snow-wise) than last year at this point.

I guess if I really want it to snow I should sell the plow and blower.  Isn't that how it always works?

 

Me too.  Happy for that 1.0 inches...about the same as what you got only way less.  Closer to 0 than 10.  Still thankful. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think that tpv is the issue. It’s behind the trough axis. It’s close but so long as it’s behind it’s not compressing that much. It’s not helping unless it dives in behind and phases though. But the bigger issue is the spacing (or lack of) between the waves off the coast and Thursday’s storm. The ridge to the west is too close also.  

Yea, I agree but it’s still discouraging. I mean, yes the ridge axis out west isn’t ideal and yes, there’s some interaction with the departing storm (not ideal). But I feel like we had enough ingredients that a moderate event was possible if we got the right track. That’s the annoying thing, it’s not an awful evolution but the result is a miss.

I do think though that if the TPV isn’t phasing or helping to sharpen the back side of the trough, then it’s hurting.. not helping, imo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How long until the Parallel GFS replaces the regular one, like a week or so at this point?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

How long until the Parallel GFS replaces the regular one, like a week or so at this point?

      probably sometime in March now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, high risk said:

      probably sometime in March now.

Is it still the case that the ensembles will be based on the old physics?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

 

So this time around...it wasn't the thermally challenged base state that did it, but just another bit of random chaos unable to be seen at a longer range? Oh the roll of the atmospheric dice...lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.