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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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Just now, Ephesians2 said:

GFS is going to be great for central/southern VA

Reminds me of something...

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painful miss----we know how this will end. Norfolk VA ends the winter with way above normal Snow. DC gets 3 inches

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Just now, Cobalt said:

Reminds me of something...

Don't say it, lol If I remember correctly, though...models had the low all the way down in Georgia and we were trying to will it up this way...So as long as this doesn't trend south the next few days then maybe we're in a good spot? Lol

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Just now, Ji said:

painful miss----we know how this will end. Norfolk VA ends the winter with way above normal Snow. DC gets 3 inches

DC screwjob is setting up nicely. Torch the first storm and get fringed by the second. Only in this city I swear do we find ways to fail.

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Just now, JakkelWx said:

Dare I say this looks similar to 2016 around D7?

I know about suppression but of all the models the GFS showing this concerns me the least.  

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Typical response when in the bullseye on D7:  Wow, too bad we know it won't hold for 7 days.

Typical response when not in the bullseye on D7:  Wow, you know that's exactly how it'll play out.

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Just now, nj2va said:

Typical response when in the bullseye on D7:  Wow, too bad we know it won't hold for 7 days.

Typical response when not in the bullseye on D7:  Wow, you know that's exactly how it'll play out.

The blatant pessimism helps me not be so surprised when we get fringed, blowtorched, and suppressed all at the same time. 

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21 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Typical response when in the bullseye on D7:  Wow, too bad we know it won't hold for 7 days.

Typical response when not in the bullseye on D7:  Wow, you know that's exactly how it'll play out.

Yeah I don't get it...Somehow the snow weenie brain of some translates a slightly unfavorable D7 model run into reality and and favorable one into fantasy...where in reality neither is true because, well....the reality, whichever it is, hasn't happened yet!!!

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On a serious note with the 50/50 location and the ridge being in an iffy spot want this shortwave to have as much latitude as possible as it tracks east. This way even if it bombs on the coast and heads east quickly it would be able to throw back moisture. What’s also allowed this to come nw a bit is that tpv in Canada shifting NW. The euro and gfs did this today, but cmc kept it too Far East. This one has good potential though. Well see

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 after the storm on D7, we get a cutter but it brings in arctic cold down from above. Cross polar flow.

gfs_mslpa_nhem_44.png

gfs_T2m_nhem_46.png

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2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

LOl. That is, actually, literally where we want this seven days out. We are good and very much in the game.

Yea honestly I’m more worried about the north trend continuing than it missing us South. Time will tell

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