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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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Consistency! That’s what we have been lacking, but we now have it. At some point, the GFS will catch on...probably around Monday. :lol:

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

heavy snow at 126

 

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

heavy snow at 126 but playing with fire lol

 

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Thumping snow at 126.

 

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Regardless... still gonna be a fair bit of snow this run. DCA pummeled at 126

quadruple ninja'd

 

1 minute ago, wawarriors4 said:

DCA Snow at 126, not so much down this way around EZF

What is the precip type in DC at 126? 

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We'll probably flip, but we are nowhere near out of the game on this one.

Yup. This has potential to be a great front end thump to mix back to snow once the LPC is east of us. Plenty of cold just to our north. These specifics won't be picked up 5 days out. 

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based on what i see now...no forecast will be safe until about 12 hours before the storm starts

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Just now, osfan24 said:

If you liked the mid-December storm, you will love this one. :axe:

i liked it but i think mostly because it was pre Christmas

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This is still an evolving situation. 

It will trend back south/flatter/quicker transfer.

If not, what PSU said, and I will just accept that it cant snow on the coastal plain anymore lol.

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ULL north of MN causes probelms, but it does not phase. The coastal goes east off NJ

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Well, we went from a foot to 4".  I mean, better than 0"

the more north the low..the less heavy precip we get too. We wont that low to be in KY. That would give us 2 solid panels of snow instead of 1 and a light mix.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma.png

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5” thump to mix to dryslot? I’d hit that. Interesting that this starts late Monday morning on the euro now. Speeding up.

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Just now, Amped said:

ULL north of MN causes probelms, but it does not phase. The coastal goes east off NJ

is this a new feature?

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Just now, Ji said:

is this a new feature?

Yes, doesn't look like it was on any prior Euro runs.

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

5” thump to mix to dryslot? I’d hit that. Interesting that this starts late Monday morning on the euro now. Speeding up.

Yeah, that's the main difference I see on this run - the southern shortwave speeds up and is a bit more neutral than positive tilted, which leads to a strong sfc reflection. The NS didn't change that much, but this progression gives cold a little less time to press in from the N.

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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

850s are absolutely toasted though. Probably 32 and really rather than mix. Sad.

1611630000-2O3SY5SgYD8.png

There is no way it stays snow over here for long with the primary taking that track, despite what some of the silly ass surface/snow maps are depicting.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Do we do the lowered expectations thing and say “at least it’s not the CMC” or do we compare it to the last several runs?

Storm after the storm?

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Just now, CAPE said:

There is no way it stays snow over here for long with the primary taking that track, despite what some of the silly ass surface/snow maps are depicting.

Yeah.  Heavy snow from a low in Indiana is not something I would rely on.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Do we do the lowered expectations thing and say “at least it’s not the CMC” or do we compare it to the last several runs?

Nah we compared it to the last several runs. I don't want anymore sloppy storms. I want a clean snowstorm. Been forever. I don't feel like going through and getting some sloppy 3-4 inches and then seeing it mix and turn to rain/melt and be a sloppy mess. That's basically all I've seen since 2016.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

There is no way it stays snow over here for long with the primary taking that track, despite what some of the silly ass surface/snow maps are depicting.

850th.us_ma.png

verbatim we hold the 850s well south during the thump period but those SW winds are uh, cranking in some 850 juice shortly thereafter

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Do we do the lowered expectations thing and say “at least it’s not the CMC” or do we compare it to the last several runs?

Lower expectations because that run was just a stop on the way to shutout town. If everything settles a bit south then we get something.  You get more something.  

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7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is still an evolving situation. 

It will trend back south/flatter/quicker transfer.

If not, what PSU said, and I will just accept that it cant snow on the coastal plain anymore lol.

The setup argues south, the lack of cold has me doubting.  

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The ULL in Canada just showed up on the 12z run.  0z on top, 12z bottom

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-1597600_!.png

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-1597600.png

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