dendrite

Winter Banter and General Disco 2

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I've had both shots of Pfizer....just felt like someone punched me in the shoulder, though second one was worse and even swollen a bit. I had a what felt like a hint of a fever late at night following second one, but didn't miss a beat...NBD.

Tried to donate plasma today, but couldn't do bc I had the vaccine. Just ended up doing regular blood donation. 

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19 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The market has Very likely made a top .
 

Until or Without more  intervention Further Out on yield curve (To depress the 10 year bond ) there is likely continued trouble and falling asset Values. Choppy price action 
 

 


0D257057-A621-4C40-A2D0-7838FD0FBD7E.thumb.jpeg.1adc371bf6226ed6f2a7dc9c0aa3d250.jpeg

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57 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:


0D257057-A621-4C40-A2D0-7838FD0FBD7E.thumb.jpeg.1adc371bf6226ed6f2a7dc9c0aa3d250.jpeg

It's sort of staring folks right in the face.  The Fed is the reason for all the liquidity and the crowded long trade that may begin to unwind here. Chair Powell also made it clear he did not intend to step in (more than they already are) and do anything about rising yields (that make borrowing rates higher to consumers)  * Bc they seethem as fulfilling their forecast /desire for letting inflation run a little hot And especially as added confidence in the market pricing in more of a recovery.   Its ironic in a sense that as the economy was in the toilet and interest rates were extremely low the stock market was soaring and now (unless the Fed steps in-and they made it seem like they won't unless there is carnage) as the economy picks up again the stock market is looking vulnerable. 

If you look at valuations and adjust them lower due to rising interest rates....and take into account the market almost always overshoots in whatever direction it is moving...it should be a wild ride next week . The Trend line from last April's rally into Mid February has a ...well just look at this chart.  The line in the sand on SP 500 is 3770 ...we break that and Free falling comes on

The Nasdaq closed below it's 50 Day moving ave. and the SP 500 (ES)(SPX) bounced of its 50 day around 1030 am. The market crapped itself around 350 P.M before the close. Now with all the liquidity the market could do anything from here, I don't mean to act like i "Know" where it's going but we have a key  (NEW) situation where the FED is for the first time in the year long rally the PROBLEM and it views the Yield rise (markets problem) as a GOOD THING that confirms the fed is doing its job in orchestrating a economic recovery. There are 6 Fed governors that speak next week and they will likely be spewing the same .."yields rising is a confirmation the economy is recovering" . This should send the market on its AZZ unless they find the wiggle room to change their mind prior to the market breaking the trend line above. The rising yields are a global issue and the Europeans are not so jolly about the movement as the rise in borrowing rates is choking off their recovery before it even gets going...they may break ranks with the FED and try to stop the rise..but the US Bond market is the biggest market in the whole financial system by a large degree so it sorta steers the boat. To add one final counter point ..there is the chance that this rising yield trade is nearly exhausted and or that the Fed will act clandestinely to  bring rates down thru direct unannounced purchases to  avoid asset price falls and to avoid acting like they are panicked  about rising rates (and to save markets confidence in them) either one of these would likely save the market from a break below the key support measures. 

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3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It's sort of staring folks right in the face.  The Fed is the reason for all the liquidity and the crowded long trade that may begin to unwind here. Chair Powell also made it clear he did not intend to step in (more than they already are) and do anything about rising yields (that make borrowing rates higher to consumers)  * Bc they seethem as fulfilling their forecast /desire for letting inflation run a little hot And especially as added confidence in the market pricing in more of a recovery.   Its ironic in a sense that as the economy was in the toilet and interest rates were extremely low the stock market was soaring and now (unless the Fed steps in-and they made it seem like they won't unless there is carnage) as the economy picks up again the stock market is looking vulnerable. 

If you look at valuations and adjust them lower due to rising interest rates....and take into account the market almost always overshoots in whatever direction it is moving...it should be a wild ride next week . The Trend line from last April's rally into Mid February has a ...well just look at this chart.  The line in the sand on SP 500 is 3770 ...we break that and Free falling comes on

The Nasdaq closed below it's 50 Day moving ave. and the SP 500 (ES)(SPX) bounced of its 50 day around 1030 am. The market crapped itself around 350 P.M before the close. Now with all the liquidity the market could do anything from here, I don't mean to act like i "Know" where it's going but we have a key  (NEW) situation where the FED is for the first time in the year long rally the PROBLEM and it views the Yield rise (markets problem) as a GOOD THING that confirms the fed is doing its job in orchestrating a economic recovery. There are 6 Fed governors that speak next week and they will likely be spewing the same .."yields rising is a confirmation the economy is recovering" . This should send the market on its AZZ unless they find the wiggle room to change their mind prior to the market breaking the trend line above. The rising yields are a global issue and the Europeans are not so jolly about the movement as the rise in borrowing rates is choking off their recovery before it even gets going...they may break ranks with the FED and try to stop the rise..but the US Bond market is the biggest market in the whole financial system by a large degree so it sorta steers the boat. To add one final counter point ..there is the chance that this rising yield trade is nearly exhausted and or that the Fed will act clandestinely to  bring rates down thru direct unannounced purchases to  avoid asset price falls and to avoid acting like they are panicked  about rising rates (and to save markets confidence in them) either one of these would likely save the market from a break below the key support measures. 

What are the odds Cathy blows up ARK in a larger drop? Seems she sells her stable liquid assets like AAPL and AMZN to meet redemption requests and holds all the overvalued small cap low float stuff. Risky business in a vehicle that is supposed to provide daily liquidity.

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53 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Beautiful night to be outside. 

68FEEBF0-12CE-4B3D-9E51-4AE70E43CF78.jpeg

01410E91-34B4-48FE-857A-CC8E803BFCDD.jpeg

Gorgeous!  I saw the moon rising tonight and was in awe at how big it looked but could not get to an open view before the clouds moved in.  It was like a 10 minute race that I lost driving across town.  ;)

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Seeking advice from this diverse group...COMPLETELY non-weather related...NON-car nuts can skip?

Long time lurker but with the diversity of knowledge I've witnessed here for quite a few years...looking for thoughts/experiences...and yes, I know, first world problem here...

 

I inherited a pair of cars from my Dad.  The past two years they were winter stored at my Mom's house.  That may be changing.  

I have a (too small for everyday car, but sized well for the (toy) cars attached garage (22x22).  

Options that have come to mind:

A. both cars in the garage, and everyday cars live outside.  no cost is great, but someday I'll be commuting daily again and sometimes it does snow , and my wife might hate the toys getting the garage and not her car and it's inevitable especially in winter that using garage as pass through from outside, putting snowblower in garage, shovels, grocery, etc. the toys are going to be in the way/bumped/etc...see car nut in first sentence.  

B: stacked in one bay with a 4 post lift (i.e. directlift.com) and one of the everyday cars (mine) lives in the driveway. happy wife, happy life, a lift would be really nice for working on the cars.

C: B with one of those metal carports nestled in an area that would be too noticeable from the street.  What's best here...extend driveway asphalt (driveway redo may be on the docket for this year anyway), pour a cement pad, anchor on crushed stone?  advantage here is, not having to move cars (kids have cars as well, yes...our house looks like a used car lot) all the time to get cars in and out of garage, weather protection

D: single car prefab garage (i.e. https://www.kloterfarms.com/page.cfm?p=45764) AND the lift stacking one of the cars above the everyday other everyday in other bay.  partial man cave on a budget.   

E: dual lifts, dual stacking.  (a car nut can dream, right?)  Kinda wish my garage ceiling height was about 1' more to stack over my SUV, and about 3' longer for more room!

 

F: time machine and build that 24x24 garage I had a GREAT quote for two years ago.  :-(  economically, a poor idea then, and more so now but if I could roll back the clock, I think I would do it because the price was THAT good...but would I love to have that space to setup a man cave for working on the cars.  

  

So...any thoughts or experiences on lifts, carports, prefab garages?  

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4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I shot this last night from the front yard.

 

 

Febmoon4.jpg

Glad our pack held out.  It's very bright out there tonight, and the snow amplifies it.  Few things better.

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1 minute ago, radarman said:

Glad our pack held out.  It's very bright out there tonight, and the snow amplifies it.  Few things better.

Yeah, full winter moons are awesome!   Clouds moved in tonight but last night it was so bright off the snow it was like twilight at 10pm.

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8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Gorgeous!  I saw the moon rising tonight and was in awe at how big it looked but could not get to an open view before the clouds moved in.  It was like a 10 minute race that I lost driving across town.  ;)

We were riding down the snowmobile trail and I topped a little rise and I had to pull over and take that picture of the moon. My crappy iPhone doesn’t do it justice. 

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1 minute ago, mreaves said:

We were riding down the snowmobile trail and I topped a little rise and I had to pull over and take that picture of the moon. My crappy iPhone doesn’t do it justice. 

It took me a second look at your post to realize you captured the East and West views almost simultaneously.

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It took me a second look at your post to realize you captured the East and West views almost simultaneously.

Not quite simultaneously. But the moon is rising in the notch that we were riding to. The bottom pic is looking west from the hill on the right. I think we were at 2100’ looking towards the spine. Camel’s Hump is on the left. 

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31 minutes ago, TwoDogNight said:

Seeking advice from this diverse group...COMPLETELY non-weather related...NON-car nuts can skip?

Long time lurker but with the diversity of knowledge I've witnessed here for quite a few years...looking for thoughts/experiences...and yes, I know, first world problem here...

 

I inherited a pair of cars from my Dad.  The past two years they were winter stored at my Mom's house.  That may be changing.  

I have a (too small for everyday car, but sized well for the (toy) cars attached garage (22x22).  

Options that have come to mind:

A. both cars in the garage, and everyday cars live outside.  no cost is great, but someday I'll be commuting daily again and sometimes it does snow , and my wife might hate the toys getting the garage and not her car and it's inevitable especially in winter that using garage as pass through from outside, putting snowblower in garage, shovels, grocery, etc. the toys are going to be in the way/bumped/etc...see car nut in first sentence.  

B: stacked in one bay with a 4 post lift (i.e. directlift.com) and one of the everyday cars (mine) lives in the driveway. happy wife, happy life, a lift would be really nice for working on the cars.

C: B with one of those metal carports nestled in an area that would be too noticeable from the street.  What's best here...extend driveway asphalt (driveway redo may be on the docket for this year anyway), pour a cement pad, anchor on crushed stone?  advantage here is, not having to move cars (kids have cars as well, yes...our house looks like a used car lot) all the time to get cars in and out of garage, weather protection

D: single car prefab garage (i.e. https://www.kloterfarms.com/page.cfm?p=45764) AND the lift stacking one of the cars above the everyday other everyday in other bay.  partial man cave on a budget.   

E: dual lifts, dual stacking.  (a car nut can dream, right?)  Kinda wish my garage ceiling height was about 1' more to stack over my SUV, and about 3' longer for more room!

 

F: time machine and build that 24x24 garage I had a GREAT quote for two years ago.  :-(  economically, a poor idea then, and more so now but if I could roll back the clock, I think I would do it because the price was THAT good...but would I love to have that space to setup a man cave for working on the cars.  

  

So...any thoughts or experiences on lifts, carports, prefab garages?  

I would go with either a lift if it fits, I've seen them at houses I appraise or a carport (cheapest option).

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1 hour ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Make sure you bundle up on Tuesday junior..... 

Lol I've lost 20 pounds in 2 months. I actually took the job to load weight so I'm very happy. The gains I've tracked via my whoop fitness tracker have been cool. 

Back when it snowed a few weeks ago, made the mistake of not wearing gloves on some of the colder days. Feeling in my fingertips is just coming back lol 

Nice man. Was just busting. You know me. As long as you are drinking a lot of beer.. keep up the good work! Getting married is a huge endeavor 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice man. Was just busting. You know me. As long as you are drinking a lot of beer.. keep up the good work! Getting married is a huge endeavor 

Thank you my friend. It's going to be great. We are doing summer 2022 at TPC River Highlands. Just signed contract with a band. A lot of planning and a ton of money. Happy wife happy life though. 

 

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3 hours ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Make sure you bundle up on Tuesday junior..... 

Lol I've lost 20 pounds in 2 months. I actually took the job to load weight so I'm very happy. The gains I've tracked via my whoop fitness tracker have been cool. 

Back when it snowed a few weeks ago, made the mistake of not wearing gloves on some of the colder days. Feeling in my fingertips is just coming back lol 

Don't worry about the scale...its all about body mass. Build some lean mass and monitor how your pants fit at the waist. Leave Kev and his archaic height/weight chart in the early 80s.

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't worry about the scale...its all about body mass. Build some lean mass and monitor how your pants fit at the waist. Leave Kev and his archaic height/weight chart in the early 80s.

After lifting for the past 3 years I gained like 25 lbs and went down 2 pants sizes. 

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

After lifting for the past 3 years I gained like 25 lbs and went down 2 pants sizes. 

My PCP finally stopped popping an aneurysm every time he weighed me like 3 years ago. I'm 5'7", 215lbs......on Kev's handy, dandy chart, I should be scheduled for a bypass at 40YO, but my blood work is flawless and I have a 34-35" waist. Not ripped by any stretch of the imagination, but healthy.

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't worry about the scale...its all about body mass. Build some lean mass and monitor how your pants fit at the waist. Leave Kev and his archaic height/weight chart in the early 80s.

I had some weird things happen during pandemic. Gained a ton of weight but didn't look like it. Also blood pressure was bad. Its insane how much better I feel already. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jay is a big dude...played ball in college, so body comp is def a factor.

I love how  you can calculate your BMI and have 90% of the population obese by that metric. :lol: 

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6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

After lifting for the past 3 years I gained like 25 lbs and went down 2 pants sizes. 

I weighed more when I lifted and had a smaller pants size too. Been so busy I haven't been working out and ended up with  gut, lost most of it on my diet and have to get back to working out to get back in shape.

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Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

I had some weird things happen during pandemic. Gained a ton of weight but didn't look like it. Also blood pressure was bad. Its insane how much better I feel already. 

So happy for everything going on in your life....tough to believe you were a kid when you joined this place.

Good luck with the wedding planning lol

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jay is a big dude...played ball in college, so body comp is def a factor.

I haven't been lifting at all. My body is a mess in terms of damage from football now. I've been focusing on just cardio and losing weight. I'm sure lifting would help, but I am not keen on going to the gym during the pandemic. 

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1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I haven't been lifting at all. My body is a mess in terms of damage from football now. I've been focusing on just cardio and losing weight. I'm sure lifting would help, but I am not keen on going to the gym during the pandemic. 

I hear ya.....I have been back since the summer, but I bought the bare essentials for my basement during lockdown.....squat rack and free weights. That is all you need, really.

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3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I haven't been lifting at all. My body is a mess in terms of damage from football now. I've been focusing on just cardio and losing weight. I'm sure lifting would help, but I am not keen on going to the gym during the pandemic. 

Get weights and workout from home, me and my brother have a great gym set up in his basement, we put on the Bruins or Sox games and workout.

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