Wintry event or cold rain for January 9 NYC subforum.

[NJsnow89]

Hopefully this all changes for us soon. So far today, models have backed off the NS. 

[Rjay]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Some serious potential with this one. All models have some type of storm for this time period.

It reminds me of past snowstorms where the models showed potential several days out and came together as we got closer. 

The AO/NAO will reach their most negative numbers around this time as well.

I hate this storm but who knows.  Maybe it could work out.  

[HeadInTheClouds]

16 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I hate this storm but who knows.  Maybe it could work out.  

Think it's going to be a swing and a miss. the 12-13th may be something. 

[MJO812]

Top 3  CIPS analogs for the Jan 8th storm:
 
1. December 2009
2. January 2016
3. Boxing Day 2010

 

Very interesting 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, NJsnow89 said:

Hopefully this all changes for us soon. So far today, models have backed off the NS. 

I'll take my chances 6 days out.

Remember Albany was supposed to whiff with December storm and they got blasted. 

I would not wanna be in the jackpot 6 days out.

[NEG NAO]

18Z GFS

[BombsAway1288]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

18Z GFS

Pretty much exactly where everyone should want it 6 days out.

[WestBabylonWeather]

I’ve been lurking long enough to know - that’s right where we want it a week out. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’ve been lurking long enough to know - that’s right where we want it a week out. 

Yes but we have to see if this is legit. This little vort near Maine supresses our main storm.

[MJO812]

 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

yeah BUT how are you going to get rid of that little vort near Maine that is suppressing next weekends coastal ?

[MJO812]

42 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

yeah BUT how are you going to get rid of that little vort near Maine that is suppressing next weekends coastal ?

Who knows if the models are actually right about it.

[NEG NAO]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Who knows if the models are actually right about it.

The Ukie is closer to the coast

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

 

meh...all el nino years...1980 is in there for a disclaimer...

[Treckasec]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

meh...all el nino years...1980 is in there for a disclaimer...

The upcoming pattern may just be more common in El Niño's... Even Jan 1996, Dec 2010, and Jan 2011 [La Niñas with a significant snowstorm] are on that list! It's surprising just how close to a robust snowstorm the pattern is, but there are wrinkles in the details preventing the storm from currently seeming more significant... While analogs are helpful, reality will always prevail over similar—yet different—situations. It's certainly something to watch, given that we have a number of days left to track the system, but ensembles haven't been very enthusiastic... It may be a signal that this storm doesn't have as much leeway to grow more significant, but stranger modeling madness has occurred in much smaller timeframes! 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

meh...all el nino years...1980 is in there for a disclaimer...

Dec 2010 El Nino?

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

meh...all el nino years...1980 is in there for a disclaimer...

This pattern isn't la Nina like 

[NEG NAO]

0z GFS

[HVSnowLover]

Still close but now it’s getting close enough timeframe from right where want it to we need to see a west trend

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Still close but now it’s getting close enough timeframe from right where want it to we need to see a west trend

0Z GFSv16

 

 

[NEG NAO]

0Z GEM 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z GEM 

Every model is something different.  Never seen such inconsistency in my life lol 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Every model is something different.  Never seen such inconsistency in my life lol 

Every storm? LOL 

[eduggs]

14 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Every model is something different.  Never seen such inconsistency in my life lol 

I've been following weather models for 25 years. And I've never seen such consistency 5 days out as I've seen this winter. Modeling gets better every year.  

There are so many mid-range models now and they run so frequently that we have data overload.  We are getting spoiled.

[Rjay]

What a mess lol 

 

[psv88]

30 minutes ago, Rjay said:

What a mess lol 

 

Good luck with that 

[MJO812]

Ukie 

[HVSnowLover]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie 

Nice to have one model wound up and a hit with everything else ots

[wdrag]

As noted previously, most of the modeling has our forum on the nw fringe of the storm, if anything at all.  Models have a complex upper air pattern in the northeast USA, so the NC/VA's snow event-storm may yet come a little closer, dependent upon upper air interactions up here. As it stands now, the central NJ e tip of Li of our subforum would be grazed with minor amounts (rain or snow?). But the op UK even while having shifted se, is  a current outlier solution for an event here.  Just have to watch for trends in the 12z/4 and 00z/5 cycles. I definitely want to see the GGEM spread more than 0.1" qpf into our forum by the 00z/5 cycle and the GFS come back north.. NAEFS has us on the edge and I haven't seen much southward drift the past 00z/4 cycle. That leaves me staying with this outlook, til am assured we've been bypassed to the southeast. 

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS once again is a miss because of the vort lobe that cuts off in eastern  Canada and moves south towards NE blocking this out to sea south of us - no sense in even tracking this for now until things change - lets see if most the other guidance  agrees at 12Z