• Member Statistics

    16,549
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    yuyuer0221
    Newest Member
    yuyuer0221
    Joined
Stormlover74

January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

Recommended Posts

Added from the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Dec 2020 Digital edition.  I think they would like to see this info shared and I think it valuable...especially Lead Time on SVR and Synoptic Scale events. It definitely supports my basis for acting on threads.    This is from page 1125.  

AMS STATEMENTS

Priorities for a New Decade: Weather, Water, and Climate

A Policy Statement of the American Meteorological Society

(Adopted by the AMS Council on 28 September 2020)

 

One to three hours. Our national investment in research and observations has paved the way for severe weather guidance to extend beyond traditional 30- to 60-minute warnings into the 1- to 3-hour time frame. Such guidance could lead to major benefits in preparation and safety. It also raises new questions. How will people respond if they expect to have more than an hour to take action ahead of a possible tornado or a flash flood? How can the probabilities and uncertainties inherent in such guidance best be conveyed? How can schools, workplaces, and other institutions act to support public safety measures in these extended time frames?

Weeks to months. Specific local weather forecasts cannot be issued with accuracy beyond about 10 to 14 days. However, many other types of outlooks have demonstrated accuracy over periods of weeks to months (subseasonal to seasonal periods) when they are presented in terms of probabilities or likelihoods. For example, some periods of increased regional tornado risk

Predicting and respond- ing to such multipronged threats will require new forms of collaboration and data sharing across sectors and disciplines.

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Below is a scatter diagram for New York City's daily snowfall of 4" or more during the January 21-31, 1950-2020 period based on the AO/PNA:

AOPNA01172021.jpg

How is the PNA today?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Below is a scatter diagram for New York City's daily snowfall of 4" or more during the January 21-31, 1950-2020 period based on the AO/PNA:

AOPNA01172021.jpg

Nice plot. Is it also possible to plot the base rate - the AO/PNA scatter diagram for all days?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, TriPol said:

How is the PNA today?

Still positive (+0.523). However, it is forecast to fall sharply. There is strong consensus on the guidance for the PNA to go negative over the next 5-7 days and then strongly negative afterward.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Nice plot. Is it also possible to plot the base rate - the AO/PNA scatter diagram for all days?

All days in January or all cases? The latter would lead to a noisier outcome on account of differing wave lengths.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

All days in January or all cases? The latter would lead to a noisier outcome on account of differing wave lengths.

All days during the January 21-31, 1950-2020 period.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12Z GEM basically a miss to the south for most of the metro - GFSv16 hasn't started running at 12Z for whatever reason as of 11:59 am

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS -redevelops off coast but too warm

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

Gefs is further south compared to 6z gefs and 12z op.

60046ff9c21ad.png

60046fff94450.png

60047005832af.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will never learn. Weeklies and ensembles past day 10 are useless. GEPS now looks terrible at day 15. Not sure what EPS looks like.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I will never learn. Weeklies and ensembles past day 10 are useless. GEPS now looks terrible at day 15. Not sure what EPS looks like.

Starting to look like other years where the pattern doesn’t materialize. Always seems to be around mid January 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I will never learn. Weeklies and ensembles past day 10 are useless. GEPS now looks terrible at day 15. Not sure what EPS looks like.

GEPS has been getting progressively more Niña looking going into February since the Thursday night run. I posted about it this morning, BAMWX pointed it out that the EPS and GEFS are backing off the very cold runs for the long range they had and are both markedly warming up each cycle for the last several runs....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

follow the soi. it's been positive for weeks. only went it goes negative the cold will come.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

                                                                                                     HELP ME RHONDA YEAH!!!..................Get Me Out of this Winter................

Polar Vortex Bust keeps getting worse.       We do not break 20 at  mid-winter with a loose PV???!!!       The last 7 days of January are now averaging 33degs.(28/38), a full 12 degrees more than just 3 runs back.

1610884800-yXy0W2jX3cQ.png

 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Starting to look like other years where the pattern doesn’t materialize. Always seems to be around mid January 

What drives me crazy is a lot of Mets predicted a bad year for snowfall due to no blocking and poor Pacific. We had great blocking and it still didn't matter. I can't remember ever having great blocking in a Nina and not getting a decent winter. I have only seen super Nino's with blocking fail like late 90s. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

What drives me crazy is a lot of Mets predicted a bad year for snowfall due to no blocking and poor Pacific. We had great blocking and it still didn't matter. I can't remember ever having great blocking in a Nina and not getting a decent winter. I have only seen super Nino's with blocking fail like late 90s. 

The +EPO is killing us this go around

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Brian5671 said:

The +EPO is killing us this go around

Yeah but we have had plenty of +epo winter's with blocking and we scored decently. I firmly believe if we had more storm chances we would have had some snow this winter. Our temps were fine with the right track.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here you go:

AO01172021-all.jpg

Thanks. That's helpful to visualize the relative likelihoods and typical ranges of each state during this upcoming time of year. It's hard to tell, but it looks like AO-/PNA+ is most common.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

What drives me crazy is a lot of Mets predicted a bad year for snowfall due to no blocking and poor Pacific. We had great blocking and it still didn't matter. I can't remember ever having great blocking in a Nina and not getting a decent winter. I have only seen super Nino's with blocking fail like late 90s. 

It's a crap shoot. Perfectly timed shortwaves can produce major storms in any "pattern". And a great "pattern" with a slight wrinkle in the setup can produce zilch. The large scale synoptic features certainly increase or decrease the likelihood of a good winter, but there is also a lot of luck (randomness) involved.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah but we have had plenty of +epo winter's with blocking and we scored decently. I firmly believe if we had more storm chances we would have had some snow this winter. Our temps were fine with the right track.

Winters are warmer now.   Seems like more of a DC type climate around here last 5-6 yrs

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z Euro looks like Canadian - a miss  south mostly

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.pngprateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

Holding back energy

Would be a different solution if it ejected it

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.