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40/70 Benchmark

January 2021

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, no argument from me there. That is the period to watch.

It's the 12th ... we'e been flagging that 8-12th period ... I thought there may be two events book-ending, but having one or the other become dominant is not unusual going deep blurry range inward. 

I was just noting that the GGEM and GFS both carry substantive trough through the E nearing the 12th+ but so it may be more of a 'what' over 'if'  - ...  if indeed the PNA is about to enter a robuster rise

hey, does the EPS PNA avail to us anyone ? 

See, that flow emergence out there is going have better predictive skill than this nebular wave contention crap we just dealt with ... just sayn'   Realize no one wants to hear that now but - it is what it is

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's the 12th ... we'e been flagging that 8-12th period ... I thought there may be two events book-ending, but having one or the other become dominant is not unusual going deep blurry range inward. 

I was just noting that the GGEM and GFS both carry substantive trough through the E nearing the 12th+ so - ...  if indeed the PNA is about to enter a robuster rise

hey, does the EPS PNA avail to us anyone ? 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-pna-box-9804800.png

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Here's the loop....you can see the western ridge amplifying 3 different times....it does slowly retrograde west each "cycle".

 

Jan5_loop.gif

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On 1/1/2021 at 12:27 PM, Henry's Weather said:

Wisdom says that our best chances occur at the formation and dissolution of these blocks, with the best chance at the dissolution, as some modified cP air has usually been dislodged south at that point, which is what I believe happened with our 12/16-17 storm? So, this wisdom leads me to assign Jan 8-9 and some time mid-late January (maybe the 18th-20th) as the most legitimate threats. I'd be interested to see if this verifies.

We also seem to be southern stream dominated at first, with northern stream chances improving if we get some PAC ridging going on mid-month. I think most in NE would agree, with the exception of some far SW Connecticut people, that Manitoba Maulers forced under a block is a much preferable synopsis to a southern stream event.

Pretty happy with this so far, although as typically happens for me, I assumed the pattern would flip before it did. Maybe push back both those threats 4 days?

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-pna-box-9804800.thumb.png.ef7507ad589731f437a7cc027e44373c.png

Interesting ...  sucks, but interesting - 

The GEFs looke that way-ish btw. 

It's kielbasa-worthy to point out but true nonetheless ...the PNA is a huge domain space. We probably can support a +PNAP look over the continent ...if ephemeral, during a -PNA over all. 

Doesn't sound very scientifically responsible but it doesn't feel like the PNA is going to do that - it may come to me why on the treadmill.  

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You basically migrate the PNA to the EPO domain on the EPS. All the while having a Greenland ridge. So that Greenland ridge may help prevent  those cutters that can happen with a big -EPO s/w diving into the Plains.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's the loop....you can see the western ridge amplifying 3 different times....it does slowly retrograde west each "cycle".

 

Jan5_loop.gif

OH, ...okay - I see ...this does some help to reconcile matters.. 

That is technically probably a -PNA in the derivatives with higher heights ENE of Hawai'i out over the eastern Pac like that...but, the wave length is unusually long - fascinating. 

thanks for posting this - ... that 'splains it rather nicely.  See, that ridgecrest to ridgecrest being coastal B.C. to transiently Greenland is a bit unusually broad.  

 

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Are we starting to lean towards a favorable Feb as well? I feel like I've seen periods of strong high latitude blocking persist longer than initially progged, and especially with some kind of stratospheric interference supporting this kind of pattern. Might be wishful thinking at this point. Slow to come, slow to leave? Though I guess the -NAO part of it arrived on time.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure why one wouldn't simply call for HECS within a specified time window, rather than analog one of the most prolific months in local lore if that is what is trying to be conveyed. A Jan 2011 call is more than one event in my mind.

When one sees a long period hemispheric setup that is conducive to such extremities 

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

When one sees a long period hemispheric setup that is conducive to such extremities 

I meant in the hypothetical sense that you are indeed simply calling for a January 2011 caliber HECS, as Luke stated.

I think you have an outside shot at that type of period....lets see what happens.

I'm still betting against it, but a HECS would not shock me given the modeled pattern.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I meant in the hypothetical sense that you are indeed simply calling for a January 2011 caliber HECS, as Luke stated.

I think you have an outside shot at that type of period....lets see what happens.

I'm still betting against it, but a HECS would not shock me given the modeled pattern.

Always a bit of good luck in epicosity periods as well, timing luck, either or.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Always a bit of good luck in epicosity periods as well, timing luck, either or.

Yea. I was just simply stating I’ll take one big event and be happy...and not bank on a full redux. Anthing more is nutella icing on chocolate cake. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well stated. 

I hope peeps keep expectations in check though. Even the greatest patterns can put up goose eggs. 

I’ve sent out my email to my subscribers this morning stating so. Expect high profile chances but not always high profile results. 

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21 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Are we starting to lean towards a favorable Feb as well? I feel like I've seen periods of strong high latitude blocking persist longer than initially progged, and especially with some kind of stratospheric interference supporting this kind of pattern. Might be wishful thinking at this point. Slow to come, slow to leave? Though I guess the -NAO part of it arrived on time.

My guess is that if February breaks well for us, it will be a PNA working in conjunction with a protracted NAO due to a very successful and fully propagated SSW.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My guess is that if February breaks well for us, it will be a PNA working in conjunction with a protracted NAO due to a very successful and fully propagated SSW.

If there's one time the fabled SSW will actually help us for once, it's this February. The longer range guidance really wants to start building the Aleutian ridge up and that is usually kind of crappy for us in La Nina February unless we have a -AO/NAO.

But who knows, this year has acted way more like an El Nino than a La Nina so far, and every time we expect it to change, it doesn't.

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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If there's one time the fabled SSW will actually help us for once, it's this February. The longer range guidance really wants to start building the Aleutian ridge up and that is usually kind of crappy for us in La Nina February unless we have a -AO/NAO.

But who knows, this year has acted way more like an El Nino than a La Nina so far, and every time we expect it to change, it doesn't.

Yea, no one except Tom saw that PNA in Dec coming....that destroyed my national Dec temp forecast....like 180 opposite lol It still worked out locally bc I hit on the NAO.

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3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ve sent out my email to my subscribers this morning stating so. Expect high profile chances but not always high profile results. 

Hmmm,  didn’t see it, did my subscription not renew or should I check my spam folder?

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12 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Over the past hour we’ve had a few mood flakes.

 

This article regarding polar air just came out as some of y’all may be aware!

https://apple.news/AIszB6jXVQWSksjAqxt9r0g

Here's the key takeaway from that article:

"But it’s quite a leap to go from the stratosphere to conditions at ground level, and Cohen, for example, argues that regardless of how impressive the stratospheric warming or polar vortex movement is, “No one is going to care until there is snow in people’s backyards.”"

Here is Judah Cohen's weekly blog from yesterday, which gets into this on a more technical level:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

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52 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Here's the key takeaway from that article:

"But it’s quite a leap to go from the stratosphere to conditions at ground level, and Cohen, for example, argues that regardless of how impressive the stratospheric warming or polar vortex movement is, “No one is going to care until there is snow in people’s backyards.”"

Here is Judah Cohen's weekly blog from yesterday, which gets into this on a more technical level:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

LOL I reminded him of that on twitter Monday AM, and I think he really got spooked

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Right right ... in other words his audience are IMBY pinheads ... what? He discovered the internet yesterday ?

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