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56 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

10

I'm the real OG weenie

Ok.. That explains it. So guys..be gentle. I give you a lot of credit for loving and following the weather the way you do. I think some of you adults should take notes from this kid!! 

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3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I mean the PV lobe is catching up slowly 

James, the one thing I will say is that the Cape looks good for OES on Thursday and Friday.  That lobe coming over your head is at 510dm, with a good northerly fetch, -20 at h850.  Please give us the full analysis.

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56 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

James, the one thing I will say is that the Cape looks good for OES on Thursday and Friday.  That lobe coming over your head is at 510dm, with a good northerly fetch, -20 at h850.  Please give us the full analysis.

Yeah, northwest winds at the surface push the best bands offshore of the Cape National Seashore.  One of those events where when I was going to Bishop Stang for high school and rode the bus home to Harwich, there would be these huge ocean effect clouds and every time I get over the bridge I would be excited to see if it was snowing at home, turns out the clouds weren't even close and were far offshore.  We need that surface low to move more west.  Again the parameters suggest intense instability with delta Ts greater than 22C, strong low-level convergence, and extremely cold air mass.  Again we need the surface winds to act properly.

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13 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Yeah, northwest winds at the surface push the best bands offshore of the Cape National Seashore.  One of those events where when I was going to Bishop Stang for high school and rode the bus home to Harwich, there would be these huge ocean effect clouds and every time I get over the bridge I would be excited to see if it was snowing at home, turns out the clouds weren't even close and were far offshore.  We need that surface low to move more west.  Again the parameters suggest intense instability with delta Ts greater than 22C, strong low-level convergence, and extremely cold air mass.  Again we need the surface winds to act properly.

Winds look more North or NNW at times..so I could see you getting a couple inches + given the airmass. 

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1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Winds look more North or NNW at times..so I could see you getting a couple inches + given the airmass. 

You know the NAM changed a lot at 18z for the H5 pattern for the 28/29th system.  models are leaning towards a more northerly development of the H5 low and subsequent lows to the surface!  Stay tuned could trend to a full blown nor'easter phase.

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4 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

You know the NAM changed a lot at 18z for the H5 pattern for the 28/29th system.  models are leaning towards a more northerly development of the H5 low and subsequent lows to the surface!  Stay tuned could trend to a full blown nor'easter phase.

If you get a north wind with the 510dm lobe overhead, you can do quite well.  No low level inversion layer.

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2 hours ago, Hoth said:

This entire thread is like the last fifteen seconds of this video.

 

If you ski out of your league, you're gonna have a bad time.

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On 1/25/2021 at 8:04 PM, Go Kart Mozart said:

If you get a north wind with the 510dm lobe overhead, you can do quite well.  No low level inversion layer.

yeah models are not showing an inversion.  A 510 dm low over head does quite well for us!

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