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40/70 Benchmark

January 2021

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6 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I thought about that too recently--feel like its been a while since we had a string of those--or any for that matter.

Clippers seem to have gone into hibernation for some years now.  

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4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Looks like it would deliver the goods. 

Yeah that would work for SNE....prob not a huge event, but at least solid advisory or low end warning. Something to get the ground covered for the cold pattern.

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7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Looks like it would deliver the goods. 

It's going straight E from there, much like the GGEM.  But we'll take what we can get.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You're smoking some potent shit if you would have guessed that is my worst winter on record. I suppose that you also would have guessed that the mid atl had above average snowfall..

Does it have to be so dramatic ?  lol -

Not sure about the M/A  ...they do tend to do better relative to their own climate in suppression - whether that is NAO driven or for whatever reason.. 

But as far as here?   I took that as 'raise one's hand if guessed less' in general - I wasn't getting into specifics of CD inches received.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that would work for SNE....prob not a huge event, but at least solid advisory or low end warning. Something to get the ground covered for the cold pattern.

Where’s the dotted line?  My pen is ready. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have nothing resembling hope for anything within the forecast range, and its already been over a month since the only significant event.......past two Januarys, ZERO warning events.

Yeah sir - 

in the spirit of commiseration only ( so taken with the grain - ) ... the end of the 06z GFS operational ends the first week of Feb with still nothing to show.  And at that time, we are passing through the event horizon of the solar nadir's end ..heralding in solar spring.   Oh, the climate and lag and reality all team up and keep snow chances going until May ( stealing our warming/warm season when it does ) granted, but ...  

in the spirit of commiseration, if we're still in with this crap on Feb 6 I'm checked out.  I don't care if 1888 walks through the door - I don't give a ratz shit f-sake what it does.. cold season shenanigans take a backseat to visions and memories, nostalgia of warm season affairs.    

And no, that does not mean I'm tying those aspirations to the cinema of model depictions so don't anyone try to couch the above sentiment in with that lunacy -

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Ukie came way south from 00z though 

At least we have the Ukie and the CMC more in our region. It's more than we've seen in the last few days from the bigger guys. It keeps hopes alive for this one I'm at least here in Southern New England. Actually, looking at the model runs the last several days, so many people are in play from Maryland right up through southern New England

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29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, you have no idea.....its slow here, anyway.....now with the covid hardbreak, they are discouraging face-to-face unless necessary. That's why I don't post much at home, anymore...its all I do, all day.

I guess what bothers me is that the pattern has not been terrible it has just found ways to not produce.  It’s easier to deal with the lack of snow when you know the pattern is absolute crap so your expectations are kept quite low.

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ukie came way south from 00z though 

00z was obscenely north...it was going to sleet well into CT.

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43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM came quite a bit north with 1/26....we'll see what the other foreigns do before linking our doom and gloom fate to the GFS.

I noticed something subtle about the UKMET ...

notice it's NAO block is more over the Canadian N. country/archipelago - it's not really over even the D. Straight region. In fact, it's so far W that it's even come off the western boundary of the domain space somewhat.  Then... the wave in the M/A is suddenly situating enough N to at least clip CT-RI-SE regions... ?  Not sure that's unrelated -   

Thing is, this is delicate needle threader pattern ...I mean like situational stem-ware situated between a couple of elephant asses.  It wouldn't exactly be the first time that placement and amplitude of blocking nodes was inconsistent in guidance ..lol

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I noticed something subtle about the UKMET ...

notice it's NAO block is more over the Canadian N. country/archipelago - it's not really over even the D. Straight region. In fact, it's so far W that it's even come off the western boundary of the domain space somewhat.  Then... the wave in the M/A is suddenly situating enough N to at least clip CT-RI-SE regions... ?  Not sure that's unrelated -   

Thing is, this is delicate needle threader pattern ...I mean like situational stem-ware situated between a couple of elephant asses.  

Probably means we’ll just get sh!t on again. 

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah sir - 

in the spirit of commiseration only ( so taken with the grain - ) ... the end of the 06z GFS operational ends the first week of Feb with still nothing to show.  And at that time, we are passing through the event horizon of the solar nadir's end ..heralding in solar spring.   Oh, the climate and lag and reality all team up and keep snow chance going until May ( stealing our warming/warm season when it does ) granted, but ...  

in the spirit of commiseration, if we're still in with this crap on Feb 6 I'm checked out.  I don't care if 1888 walks through the door - I don't give a ratz shit f-sake what it does.. cold season shenanigans take a backseat to visions and memories, nostalgia of warm season affairs.    

And no, that does not mean I'm tying those aspirations to the cinema of model depictions so don't anyone try to couch the above sentiment in with that lunacy -

You seem fixated on that.

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2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

You seem fixated on that.

Warm bum-bums in the car seat is Tip's favorite time of the winter.

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You make fun of that .. because you hate the fact of its truth and inevitability - face your heartache and conquer that way.   That's your salvation - through acceptance. 

 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The hope is it’s not a south trender

It's definitely a risk with this block....but sometimes these ejecting SWFE type systems will trend north as we get closer....even when there's some confluence. We'll just have to wait and see because the subtleties of the block up north mean a lot and aren't likely to be handled great by model guidance.

GFS was a garbage solution, but GGEM trended north into an advisory event for pike-south and while Ukie trended south, it is still solidly north of the new GGEM solution. In addition, the 06z EPS trended solidly north, so we will see if the 12z run is any better. If it is, then there's definitely some more hope for this system.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's definitely a risk with this block....but sometimes these ejecting SWFE type systems will trend north as we get closer....even when there's some confluence. We'll just have to wait and see because the subtleties of the block up north mean a lot and aren't likely to be handled great by model guidance.

GFS was a garbage solution, but GGEM trended north into an advisory event for pike-south and while Ukie trended south, it is still solidly north of the new GGEM solution. In addition, the 06z EPS trended solidly north, so we will see if the 12z run is any better. If it is, then there's definitely some more hope for this system.

You’d think if the op Euro comes north today then maybe, just maybe we have something. But the way it’s gone, best not to have high hopes 

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GGEM has moved the entire polar branch of the westerlies through SE Canada ...NE of its 00z axial position by some 1500 km ...becoming more evident by the 120 hour interval, and then maintains that bias through D6/7... effectively allowing the 26th to both maintain more coherence in the meat-mincer machine,... but also a more N trajectory.  

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