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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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17 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

With a big high like that you got a better chance of a SE trend than a NW one....

not necessarily... just because a high is strong doesn't mean the synoptics producing it can't tick northward over a couple of cycles!

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1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:

not necessarily... just because a high is strong doesn't mean the synoptics producing it can't tick northward over a couple of cycles!

....hopefully the Euro does tick north some.....but overall you wouldnt think there is much risk of a NW trend with a 1050ishmb high building into the upper midwest.....

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32 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Got to take notice when these two agree like this in this range....

 

euro.thumb.png.b275182c21dc1e8228c849b43d714f3b.png

 

gfs.thumb.png.28921ea99bfe938dc0d6b666d9e25441.png

Yep, gives it more believability at that range.  Maybe this will hold in some varying shape, intensity or form over the next few runs.

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8 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

....hopefully the Euro does tick north some.....but overall you wouldnt think there is much risk of a NW trend with a 1050ishmb high building into the upper midwest.....

Still hard to believe a 1050 will be out there.  I tend to believe the artic surge is coming and with a stout HP...but a 1050?  

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4 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Still hard to believe a 1050 will be out there.  I tend to believe the artic surge is coming and with a stout HP...but a 1050?  

Almost always HP seems to be over modeled at this range. Still, even if it lowers 10mb that’s still a stout high. I doubt 1050+ actually happens. I bet this trends north. I’ll take the cold look though. That’s pure arctic ice air floating around Canada and spilling into the lower 48, geeze

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1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

Sure, there’s been plenty of reason to be pessimistic this winter but right now is not the time, imo. We know things can and do change drastically in the long range but it  couldn't look any better at day 8-10 than what it does right now.  If we can hold the general evolution of  the block retrograding west and connecting with with west coast ridging then we are sitting pretty. The retrograding block that moves from Davis straits over to the southwest Canada and connects with ridging is probably the single best prog you can hope for to generate a storm in the south east. It hasn’t happened like this since 2010/2011(excluding non winter months)

Yes, this is the key move.  The AO and NAO are doing their job.  It's the western pattern that is once again letting us down (the going theme this winter) as we can see here on the trend loop (1st image) where the above normal height anomalies along the west coast of North America have trended west during the timeframe of early next week - this leads to the SE ridge flexing.  This coincides with a period when the Pacific jet is retracting (2nd image...i.e. retracting Pacific jet = retrograding height pattern along the West Coast).  The good news is that the models are showing the jet extending after this retraction days 4-12...this would move the western ridging back east into Western North America.  We'll have to see how that plays out in reality 5-10 days from now, but the Pacific jet extending & retracting are the foundation for the EPO and PNA patterns.

Feb-3-EPS.gif

 

Feb-3-EPS-Jet.gif

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Don’t forget that surface pressures are a result of the strength and placement of upper level features and forcing. If those are modeled incorrectly, the surface pressures will not be correctly modeled.
 

So the idea of some feature in the future either being able or not able to do something because of modeled high pressure strengths and locations is a bit of an inaccuracy. 

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7 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Don’t forget that surface pressures are a result of the strength and placement of upper level features and forcing. If those are modeled incorrectly, the surface pressures will not be correctly modeled.
 

So the idea of some feature in the future either being able or not able to do something because of modeled high pressure strengths and locations is a bit of an inaccuracy. 

Thanks for the clarification Matthew

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6 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

I’ll gladly take a quarter of that run and call it a winter. You and I have been at this a long time and that might be an all time run. 

 

Was just texting Shaggy that this might be best GFS run ever lol.......seriously looked about to smack the SE again at the end of the run too....closest run to Mar 1980 I have ever seen.....only better.

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It’s really critical that the Canadian vortex ejects East like the gfs/jma show. That  allows room for amplification and phasing of the southern stream wave. Cold air doesn’t seem to be an issue so hopefully no worries rooting for the quick ejection. we can still score even if it evolves differently but that’s what we need for the storm of the century scenario.

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