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Brian D

Dec 29-Jan 2 potential storm event

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20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Precip rates are always something to consider, but they are probably even more important in the daytime.  If your rates are light, I have a hard time believing it would struggle to accrete even at 31-32.

Stop and say it ain’t true... 

 

Sorry, the Jameson and Ginerales have taken over. That being said, for all of our sakes, I hope everyone has a good New Year. 


edit** 

and accretion levels stay in check. 

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Any thoughts on this RC?  Fairly cold look for the LOT cwa at 21z.

HRRRNIL_sfc_temp_018.png.ea9f10b082dadddaaec364acf30c9a4e.png

I think it's definitely plausible north except probably right near the lake, even south can't rule it out. Question there is does the latent heat release from the warmer rain drops eventually win out for southern areas. Recalling the 2019 ice storm, the expected warming above freezing didn't happen during the steady precip because winds stayed northeast the whole time and the surface wet bulb zero line struggled to advance northward. That'll be the key to watch tomorrow is the surface wet bulb zero line.

 

 

 

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54 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I think it's definitely plausible north except probably right near the lake, even south can't rule it out. Question there is does the latent heat release from the warmer rain drops eventually win out for southern areas. Recalling the 2019 ice storm, the expected warming above freezing didn't happen during the steady precip because winds stayed northeast the whole time and the surface wet bulb zero line struggled to advance northward. That'll be the key to watch tomorrow is the surface wet bulb zero line.

 

 

 

Down to 12 at DPA.  :yikes:

chi_sfc.gif.abbe35defdb2fbd9e4b3e2c49b875e54.gif

A little unclear on just how far north the more sig ice gets since sleet looks like a player, but we didn't have temps like this in the hours immediately before 12/28/15 or 2/11/19.  Untreated surfaces will be a nightmare.

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23 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Down to 12 at DPA.  :yikes:

chi_sfc.gif.abbe35defdb2fbd9e4b3e2c49b875e54.gif

A little unclear on just how far north the more sig ice gets since sleet looks like a player, but we didn't have temps like this in the hours immediately before 12/28/15 or 2/11/19.  Untreated surfaces will be a nightmare.

Meanwhile my temp keeps creeping up and is a few degrees warmer than hrrr depicts now. I'm nervous. Lol

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13 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Meanwhile my temp keeps creeping up and is a few degrees warmer than hrrr depicts now. I'm nervous. Lol

Gonna be a tight one.  If you do break above freezing, I don't think it will be in time or by enough to prevent some issues.

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This is a bit surprising, or not lol. Freezing level is really really shallow already, maybe 2k feet.  Depth of the warmth is under 700 mb right now.  Models had it deeper yesterday.....

925mb_sf.gif?1609489361869

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LOT expanded the Ice Storm Warning, and imo, you could argue another tier or two north/east of the current warning may receive Ice Storm Warning criteria amounts.

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Just let the dogs in.  No precip 30 min ago when I let them out.  They look like Billy Idol twins now, freakin frozen Godzilla spikes on their backs lol.

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How the hell can a warm blooded hairy ass animal go outside for 30 min and come back in looking like a frozen freak show?  I have a new ZR gauge. 

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Happy New Year, all. Fine day for an ice storm. HRRR keeps me at or about 30 degrees all day. I’m working dayside in my newsroom. Let’s have some fun.

8738499F-1899-4E0B-9463-F9EB9ACF2B37.jpeg

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For my Indiana guys, mike Ryan just posted this in NWSChat:

Happy New Year everyone! Freezing rain is the story this morning, and the band east-west through the Indy metro is producing the steadiest rates so far this morning. As this band moves north over the next 30 minutes, precipitation coverage looks to be a bit more scattered. Also of note, the 32 degreee line appears to be following a county or so south of the location of the band. Bloomington has gone above freezing in the last hour and Terre Haute appear poised to do likewise within the next hour. Still think the Indy metro pulls above freezing from south to north in the 830-10 am timeframe. Road temps are in the 30-32 range over north central Indiana, 31-33 in the Indy metro and above freezing south of I-70. Finally, a trend we've noticed all night back into Missouri is that ice accrual seems to be roughly half to two thirds of the precipitation totals. That has held here...BMG had 0.11 inches precip and 0.06 ice accrual. in the last hour.

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24 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

For my Indiana guys, mike Ryan just posted this in NWSChat:

Happy New Year everyone! Freezing rain is the story this morning, and the band east-west through the Indy metro is producing the steadiest rates so far this morning. As this band moves north over the next 30 minutes, precipitation coverage looks to be a bit more scattered. Also of note, the 32 degreee line appears to be following a county or so south of the location of the band. Bloomington has gone above freezing in the last hour and Terre Haute appear poised to do likewise within the next hour. Still think the Indy metro pulls above freezing from south to north in the 830-10 am timeframe. Road temps are in the 30-32 range over north central Indiana, 31-33 in the Indy metro and above freezing south of I-70. Finally, a trend we've noticed all night back into Missouri is that ice accrual seems to be roughly half to two thirds of the precipitation totals. That has held here...BMG had 0.11 inches precip and 0.06 ice accrual. in the last hour.

Was watching this earlier.  Surface freezing is just south of I70 right now.  According to meso analysis 925 freeze line is up to Ft. Wayne and 850's are already half way through MI.  Had some light ZR a little while ago, maybe some ZR drizzle now with a surface temp of 30 and climbing already.  WAA is going to blow through most of IN if this keeps up.  Don't think we have much to worry about except lots of cold ass rain.  I would venture to say even points to the far NW may come out better.  Looks like as always the WAA overperforms the models.  Kinda surprised.  I would think as this thing shears out the pump would weaken.  Mediocre Pacific heat pumped by that extra tropical storm NE of HI last week along with untouched GOM torch water and damn near 0 arctic air mass leads to the GFS solution Saturday for us.  A freakin mess lol.

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As I typed that the surface freeze line moved N of Indy.  I'll be above 0C by 9am.  Looks like if anyone is going to get ice it'll be NW IL/ SE IA.  Most of MO at or above 0C now except for far NW.  I really am surprised a 1006 low is lifting this much warmth this aggressively.  I was thinking noon to 2pm to hit 0C from an overnight low of -5C.   Not complaining, only thing I hate more than ice is mud.  My temps up to 31F now.  Guess I'll get the greater of 2 evils lol.

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Moderate freezing rain in Chambana, with heavier precip moving in, winds are howling as well. Roads are a complete disaster, and I just had to crawl out to my garage, like a dummy I left my ice melt out there. Be safe everyone. 

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Well, hoping to overperform the apparent lack of expectations and tag a legit 2-4" snow event today. Was hoping the outlook would at least lead to an SWS here on the LOT northern tier.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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Just now, KokomoWX said:

Very light icing in Kokomo.  I am seeing power flickers.  Sigh.  

Weird, I'm melting off the roof here.  Windshield is water drops.  Had some ice on the porch a few hours ago but it's melted.  I'm up to 32.5 now.  Gone up a degree an hour since 4am.

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DMX radar is down due to a communications error, so there is no way of telling if it's snowing in southern Iowa anymore.  Going to be a close call here.  It's all snow in NW Missouri, though.

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20210101_082808.thumb.jpg.8ad4478168d3b8cdd1c5babf0f05b533.jpg

Briefly started as sleet here before switching to rain. Roads are a nightmare and trees have a solid glaze of ice already. High precip rates are preventing all of the liquid from freezing on contact though. 

A huge area is going to get ice today which is going to make it difficult to quickly restore power to places that lose it. I wonder how far north that freezing line is going to make it. 

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HRRR been trimming the southern extent of ice in Indiana but cranking it in northern IN and far southern MI and NW OH over the last 6 hours....

.zr_acc.us_mw.png

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10 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

HRRR been trimming the southern extent of ice in Indiana but cranking it in northern IN and far southern MI and NW OH over the last 6 hours....

.zr_acc.us_mw.png

Even if those totals are cut in half that's going to be an absolute mess. 

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46 minutes ago, kevlon62 said:

Well, hoping to overperform the apparent lack of expectations and tag a legit 2-4" snow event today. Was hoping the outlook would at least lead to an SWS here on the LOT northern tier.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

your golden.

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