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Ralph Wiggum

December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm

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2 minutes ago, Animal said:

Back to bed!!

Really pissed at the euro, nam and every other model...spooked about the warning for a foot or more!!

But at least you new to expect if from your geography and a tight coastal, up here we now need to be sedated.

 

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5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

NAM is a sleet bomb and there is a positive to that it won't melt before Xmas.

 

It's funny to see this trend to Boston now and the dryslot/mixing continue to punch farther N and W down here. Instead of moving due E the track keeps adjusting to crawl NE along the coast then bomb New England. Should we be surprised down here in SE PA?

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Winter storm warning.....20 to 24 inches they calling for.

 

Winter Storm Warning from WED 10:00 AM EST until THU 10:00 AM EST

Action Recommended

Make preparations per the instructions

Issued By

Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service

Affected Area

Portions of northern New Jersey and east central and northeast Pennsylvania

Description

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 20 to 24 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

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5 minutes ago, shadow_ said:

Winter storm warning.....20 to 24 inches they calling for.

Have one here for 12+ inches. A little concerned that the mix might even come up here, but still a day of tracking. 

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this is for Macungie - I swear I was reading a forecast for Mammoth Mountain Ca. Most I ever seen actually predicted from one event:  MT Holly real close in pulling the trigger for a issuing Blizzard warnings later this evening too. I think they should just to put more meat into the whiteout conditions under the winter storm warning that will exist to keep idiots from venturing out. Two feet of snow in 24 hours  is just as bad as a blizzard IMHO

Wednesday
Snow, mainly after 1pm. High near 31. East wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Wednesday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow likely, mainly before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 32. North wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
 
 
 From the discussion: 
Even inland and back into the interior, wind gusts of 35-40 mph are possible. This
would result in blizzard-like conditions, especially where snow
is heaviest. It is too soon to issue a Blizzard Warning, and
confidence is too low to warrant issuing one, but the potential
is there.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's funny to see this trend to Boston now and the dryslot/mixing continue to punch farther N and W down here. Instead of moving due E the track keeps adjusting to crawl NE along the coast then bomb New England. Should we be surprised down here in SE PA?

March 2017 all over again. But seriously, Mt Holly calling for 20-24" of snow up this way which just seems extremely aggressive. There isn't any guidance at 6z showing nearly that much. The warm push is gonna turn much of SE PA to sleet or a dry slot if it holds as depicted. I'm gonna stick with my call I gave much of my family: 10-14" up here. Still 36 more hours until the storm, this can shift back south but I'm not gonna hold my breath

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But at least you new to expect if from your geography and a tight coastal, up here we now need to be sedated.
 

Like I said earlier.....

Billy billy billy..........


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, Newman said:

Unless we see these meso models shift the banding back south, I don't see the 18-24" range verifying this far south. Insane forecast by NWS, I still can't get over it. I want it to verify dearly, but I can't get myself to believe it with the 0z and 6z push north.

PA_state_Snow.png

NJ_state_Snow.png

 

6424A43E-3556-4BA9-9ED3-30B7C0EEC9EB.jpeg

C734E21F-69B3-4773-A32B-174D4190AAF9.jpeg

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Shades of March 2017. Slept for a few hours and had a wicked dream that I was physically encased in a tomb of sleet and ice. Woke up in a cold sweat....stepped out of bed and slipped on what felt like ice on my bedroom floor. Dog pissed. Jumped in shower, turned water on and ice sprayed out of the shower head. Woke up and realized I was having a dream inside of a dream. Weird stuff. Now I'm not sure if this is real or a dream. 

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Wednesday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in
 the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the
 afternoon. High 35. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 26. Wind east-northeast around
 7 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the morning, becoming 10 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in
 the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3
 inches.

 
 Wednesday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog after midnight. Snow likely.
 Breezy. Low 28. Wind chill as low as 18. Wind east-northeast around 14 mph,
 gusting to 20 mph, in the evening, becoming 11 mph, gusting to 20 mph, after
 midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly around 2 inches. Snow accumulation 15 to 20 inches.
 
 Thursday: Cloudy. A chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the morning, then a
 slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High 30. Wind north-northeast around 9
 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning, becoming 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance
 of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than
 a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch.
 

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wtf happened overnight?? I wake up and Redsky is a Mormon, Ralph's encased in carbonite...who said we need a mod?

12/19/95 is the storm I was thinking of the other day. A forecast of 12+ turned into a sleet feast. After the last two winters, I won't complain what falls from the sky, as long as it's frozen. As others have said, time to pay attention to the hi-res models for CAD.

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12 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

wtf happened overnight?? I wake up and Redsky is a Mormon, Ralph's encased in carbonite...who said we need a mod?

12/19/95 is the storm I was thinking of the other day. A forecast of 12+ turned into a sleet feast. After the last two winters, I won't complain what falls from the sky, as long as it's frozen. As others have said, time to pay attention to the hi-res models for CAD.

The problem really isn't the CAD, the surface high in Canada is still strong. The problem is we have the upper level lows passing well to our north now. Like here on the RGEM. When the 700mb low passes north of you through eastern PA, we're all gonna dry slot or turn to sleet.

700hv.us_ne.png

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The GFS was the last one to hang onto SE PA, and with the 6Z it took that away to some degree.  Seems Mt. Holly needs to adjust their forecasts badly.

I still can't tell if Scranton or Harrisburg will jackpot.  Maybe both?

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I really think Mt Holly should not have jumped so high for SE PA. It’s always better to raise totals later. Even though that HP is strong, it’s seems evident mixing with end up being an issue for many of us. Still holding out hope LV stays all snow but sleet may ruin our accumulations as well.

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I am shocked at mt Holly's forecast for 95. High likelihood they are  going to bust massive again around 95 just like they did  the last Decembers storm where 6-12" was forecast and we got 0 and the March storm 2 years ago where 18-24" was forecast but we ended up with 3-6" due to the sleet layer being underforecasted. Those are crazy high forecast totals with the uncertainty we have in place in regard to precip type. Even up here in Hopewell, they're calling for 18-24" and I'll be shocked if that verifies. The meso models have the sleet line punching up towards Allentown. When they've shown this in the past, it has verified and it's usually too conservative with the sleet line. I'm expecting a ton of sleet now for 95 itself. Probably only 3-6" total because of that. Even up near me I think we are 6-12" because of the sleet. Hopefully the trend stops.

 

 

 

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New NAM continues to shoot the sleet line further nw. Plain rain line actually touches 95 this run. I don't think that's likely, I believe they'll stay frozen but this is looking like a large sleet event for many now. And also a death knell to those 18-24" totals even up on the lehigh valley if the nams thermals are right...

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5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

New NAM continues to shoot the sleet line further nw. Plain rain line actually touches 95 this run. I don't think that's likely, I believe they'll stay frozen but this is looking like a large sleet event for many now. And also a death knell to those 18-24" totals even up on the lehigh valley if the nams thermals are right...

Of course we don't shovel or scrape a model run....stay tuned it will change

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