• Member Statistics

    16,547
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    McTrimm
    Newest Member
    McTrimm
    Joined
Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread

Recommended Posts

19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

CMC is quite a bit colder BUT also loses the primary faster. More realistic storm with our region being on the Northern edge. Close call tho because the tilt is neg and almost appears the slp gets pulled N for a frame or 2. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23.png

This is still pretty good at this lead.  What do I take away the promised timeframe is here and we track that’s about it for now.  What else could we want over the last year? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bigtenfan said:

After a look at the 6Z GFS I am surprised how quiet this sub forum is.

Until the Euro and EPS comes on board, the end of the week storm that the GFS  and GEFS  shows is done.

  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well looks like we are going to miss Thursday event as well. I'm on the redsky train. This season is cooked... I hope its 70 all of February because this pattern blows 

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Never bet against the euro when it shows no snow. It's right 100% of the time. Gfs is a trash model, just take it out back.

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Well looks like we are going to miss Thursday event as well. I'm on the redsky train. This season is cooked... I hope its 70 all of February because this pattern blows 

Yea..status quo for storm impacts again

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Well looks like we are going to miss Thursday event as well. I'm on the redsky train. This season is cooked... I hope its 70 all of February because this pattern blows 

But I didn't punt and expected 30 days conducive to winter weather. The analogs for a mild dry Nina February appear useless, if anything February is projecting below normal. If we manage little to no snow through the next month it's a historic fail.

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

January 2006 was the warmest on record, no -NAO or favorable anything and I managed 2" snow AND got mild torches and pop up thunderstorms. 

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Glenn Schwartz article I'm Phillymag on why no winter forecast. Essentially says climate change has ruined analogs of the past.

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Never bet against the euro when it shows no snow. It's right 100% of the time. Gfs is a trash model, just take it out back.

Tired of kicking the can. The period is producing trackable event but I'm pretty sure I speak for most on here when I say wtf is the point in tracking if all systems fail.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS was the best model on the monster storm that never panned out earlier this winter. Anyone who just chooses to blatantly not listen to the GFS shouldn't be telling anyone what the weather may or may not be.

Glenn Schwartz is a joke. Blame everything but yourself, makes sense. These forecasts were never impressive. Generic vague predictions of average snowfall is all they ever were, woop de doo.

Way too many people ride runs they like and disregard runs they do not like. It doesn't work that way, and it's why everyone gets burned time and time again. If one kuchera run of some model shows 18" and another standard run of another model shows nothing, you can't just run with the 18" one because you prefer what it shows lol.

 

 

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Glenn Schwartz article I'm Phillymag on why no winter forecast. Essentially says climate change has ruined analogs of the past.

Analogs from the past say less snow and we'll get screwed this winter.....and we have.

Punting after the Thurs event fails?

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Tired of kicking the can. The period is producing trackable event but I'm pretty sure I speak for most on here when I say wtf is the point in tracking if all systems fail.

It’s maddening isn’t it? So far, we have had over 2 1/2 months of “great potential”, people have been hyping since mid November, what have we gotten in the NYC metro? One storm (December 16th).....well over a month ago and the snow was long gone, melted, by Christmas Day. Nothing but moving the goal posts, moving the finish line forward and kicking the can down the road ever since then. This month was an unmitigated disaster. The very snowy and cold pattern is always just 8-10 days away. Now, February 2-3 is being hyped as another very snowy period....over 8 days away. Groundhog Day, hit the repeat button.  I also see the twitterologists hyping a “major” SSW in late February. Even if it was to actually happen, what the hell good is it going to do at the end of February? There is a lag of weeks before its effects are felt on the troposphere....that would make it mid to late March before anything would even happen from it. By then, winter is over, done, stick a fork in it, it’s over Johnny

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s maddening isn’t it? So far, we have had over 2 1/2 months of “great potential”, people have been hyping since mid November, what have we gotten in the NYC metro? One storm (December 16th).....well over a month ago and the snow was long gone, melted, by Christmas Day. Nothing but moving the goal posts, moving the finish line forward and kicking the can down the road ever since then. This month was an unmitigated disaster. The very snowy and cold pattern is always just 8-10 days away. Now, February 2-3 is being hyped as another very snowy period....8 days away. I also see the twitterologists hyping a “major” SSW in late February. Even if it was to actually happen, what the hell good is it going to do at the end of February? There is a lag of weeks before its effects are felt on the troposphere....that would make it mid to late March before anything would even happen from it. By then, winter is over, done, stick a fork in it, it’s over Johnny

The ONLY good thing about this (personally) is a delayed/colder than normal Spring before we torch in Summer which makes Fall come that much quicker... 

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just watch March will somehow come thru with cold and Snow just when we’ve all given up, it’s so frustrating all the great posts about the Pattern being perfect setup for East Coast Snow Storms only to them fail every possible way. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Just watch March will somehow come thru with cold and Snow just when we’ve all given up, it’s so frustrating all the great posts about the Pattern being perfect setup for East Coast Snow Storms only to them fail every possible way. 

I saw flakes falling 3 days this month and 2 days in May lol

 

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Analogs from the past say less snow and we'll get screwed this winter.....and we have.

Punting after the Thurs event fails?

Have to see how March, April and May look first

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

GFS was the best model on the monster storm that never panned out earlier this winter. Anyone who just chooses to blatantly not listen to the GFS shouldn't be telling anyone what the weather may or may not be.

Glenn Schwartz is a joke. Blame everything but yourself, makes sense. These forecasts were never impressive. Generic vague predictions of average snowfall is all they ever were, woop de doo.

Way too many people ride runs they like and disregard runs they do not like. It doesn't work that way, and it's why everyone gets burned time and time again. If one kuchera run of some model shows 18" and another standard run of another model shows nothing, you can't just run with the 18" one because you prefer what it shows lol.

 

 

Most of us on here aren’t meteorologists. We’re storm Enthusiasts....unless you’re completely new to this wx world every one of us knows not to go all in in situations like that. It’s just part of the fun. Hell, the 00z gfs run the other night was the most fun I had all winter lol. I obv knew it was at the extreme north side of guidance as I’m sure others did too. Relax with hurricane man. Why the hate?

  • Like 4
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Have to see how March, April and May look first

Of course, patience.

The only thing saving me (losing it) from 2 upcoming failed events are 2 NFL championship games and beer...

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Heading into mid winter, a quick recap at gay Adam and hot Cecily's winter outlook. 

*Note: They had 10" for Philly, 12" local burbs and 15"+ far burbs 

lt.jpg

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Analogs from the past say less snow and we'll get screwed this winter.....and we have.

Punting after the Thurs event fails?

The analogs were bad for winter. Problem is the -AO/-NAO combo was not in the equation and we failed for new reasons.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The analogs were bad for winter. Problem is the -AO/-NAO combo was not in the equation and we failed for new reasons.

 

Why's new?

This winter may be equally if not worse than last. (so far) Last year we had limited/zero potential so there was no stress/late nights involved. This year I'm way behind on sleep...

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.