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December 2020 Discussion

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7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I miss being in the interior already.

Aren’t you west of 495? Lol

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30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't forget, there rarely is such thing as a persistent '14-'15 type pattern. Many times, our pattern are sort of in between good and garbage. The reasons why sometimes these break right (like Dec 07 for instance) is because of some subtle, but notable distinctions in where features like troughs and ridges are placed.

So it doesn't do a lot of good when you see something not 100% perfect and get all bent out of shape. I don't see anything wrong as a whole on the EPS, especially by December standards. Looking forward to a change.

As long as there is no pig, I’m happy with the look. Dec 2008 had a big Aleutian ridge too and -PNA. Both ‘07 and ‘08 did.  

It doesn’t look like the PNA is going to go negative anytime soon though. Maybe just not as ragingly positive. We’ll see if it starts to revert to more typical Nina -PNA toward later December. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

As long as there is no pig, I’m happy with the look. Dec 2008 had a big Aleutian ridge too and -PNA. Both ‘07 and ‘08 did.  

It doesn’t look like the PNA is going to go negative anytime soon though. Maybe just not as ragingly positive. We’ll see if it starts to revert to more typical Nina -PNA toward later December. 

Yeah exactly. Doesn’t have to be a pristine -NAO/+PNA etc. Looking forward to the change. 

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I remember posting that the American teleconnectors were signaling correction event(s) that could come in either one event or a series ... I even said the first would be a transition one, and that the next would have the better odds at a colder profile ... 

Not a  shocker for me.  

It's really like nothing's changed ... and people are impatiently waiting on every model run to given that psychotropic cinema rush.. and their not getting it - haha... 

Just chill ...

Happy T.G. by the way.  word!

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Happy thanksgiving everyone.  Despite my FIL travails here we’re going to enjoy the day.  We all got access to rapid tests which we did this morning and thankfully all are negative.  This protects everyone tested for 24 hours as long as we don’t exit our personal bubble.  Given the fragile nature of those way older than the mainstream it seemed wise.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Looks darn wet early next week. Probably 1-3” for many with the chance for more. 

Gonna be interesting to watch what happens in Ohio/Indiana. Potential very sharp snow gradient might be in play....talking nothing to at least a foot within maybe 30 miles. If not less, that is.

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4 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Gonna be interesting to watch what happens in Ohio/Indiana. Potential very sharp snow gradient might be in play....talking nothing to at least a foot within maybe 30 miles. If not less, that is.

Someone will get smoked out there for sure.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe 4” in upslope regions?

Some of the guidance soaked Maine. I expect hrly updates of the flow in CFS for the Kennebec, from Tamarack.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No shit lol. That’s a sweet look.

You’d have to think there would be multiple legit threats in the extended with that look. Really good meridional flow. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You’d have to think there would be multiple legit threats in the extended with that look. Really good meridional flow. 

Definitely. Hopefully EPS follow.

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro and FV3 both continue increasing damaging wind threat. Now both up over 60

If we can’t have snow, a good rain and wind lashing is the next best thing. 

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8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

People still talking about a “drought” down there? It’s soaking wet up here already. Standing water everywhere. 

I had standing water out back after the Sunday night/Mon morning rain. picked up another inch today. I have not had standing water out back since late spring. so yeah, it’s been wet.

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9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

People still talking about a “drought” down there? It’s soaking wet up here already. Standing water everywhere. 

20201124_Northeast_text.png

Indeed. Though there isn't much severe about the conditions in my backyard.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

20201124_Northeast_text.png

Indeed. Though there isn't much severe about the conditions in my backyard.

I’m on the edge of the red area extreme drought. closing in on 9” of rain since Oct. 13.

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Just now, SJonesWX said:

I’m on the edge of the red area extreme drought. closing in on 9” of rain since Oct. 13.

We have been arguing to shrink the size of the severe drought each update, but so far we've only been able to trim on the margins.

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