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Windspeed

Tropical Storm Eta

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1 minute ago, hlcater said:

Cat 4 is probably a good bet right now. Would like recon to get in there sooner rather than later, as eye is probably no wider than 6nm or so. An eye that small is not stable and I'm not confident that it maintains itself long enough should the 1730z recon plane end up getting canceled. Think it peaks sometime later today/this evening and kinda just holds steady into landfall. Whether or not this attains cat 5 to me is solely a function of how long can the pinhole remain stable?

I know and truly agree with what @Moderately Unstable said earlier but this thing looks and quacks much more like a high end cat 4 at the moment than anything else I think we’re witnessing historic strengthening ongoing. With the small eye you’re right, it’s allowed this raps level of deepening but is also extremely unstable to hold onto intensity at these levels for long periods of time. NEED RECON NOW 

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Shear is currently reaching a relative maximum prior to landfall and should hold steady or gradually weaken later today. Currently analyzed between 10-15kts, so ever so slightly stronger than the RAMMB would have it.

4b6abd01a380c757904a585a57b252bd.png

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Ok. Good on replacement mission. And as for board haters, I don't think they are haters per se. They've probably been around a long time, are knowledgeable, and get kind of annoyed hearing people fawn over every storm and obsess over its minute to minute changes. It isn't my style to tear someone apart for not knowing something or being passionate--I do understand why people could become jaded. 

I wonder whether or not it is tractable for the Nicaraguan government to evacuate that area. Last time a major hit them it killed a few hundred. The us does well with getting people out of the way, I wish we could export that support.

Re lightning, yeah I've been following that. Does indicate continued strengthening which is not at all surprising. I agree on stability of eye, but the storm isn't landfalling yet. We may see an ERC so I hope we get objective data before then. Even if it does that though it has time yet lol. 

 

As for predicting next year based on this year, that isn't a good prediction model. Probabilities don't change year to year. If something doesn't happen in year 1 it isn't more likely in year 2. That's a classic human probability bias problem. Human brains are primed to assume if event doesn't happen now it must happen later. It's just as likely to have a cat 5 this year and next, as neither this year or next. Or, I should say, the odds are relative to the expected number of storms, mjo, enso. 

I agree, it looks like a cat 4 now. Without objective data it is hard to know what it is. It would be nice to have velocity data for the nearby radar.

 

Edit: fun weenie fact, if you look at the eye motion right now you can see a nice trochoidal oscillation over the last few hours. Dope.

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2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Without recon I wonder what NHC will asses as the 1 pm advisory? My guess is slightly conservative 130mph cat 4

I think they will go with 130 as well.

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

130 mph would be very conservative...

Nice presentation. I could see 135kts but it still has a level to climb. More axisymmetrization, colder tops, warmer eye. 

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Well, I wouldn't call that a conservative jump. That's 20 mph, 15 knots, in 3 hours. That's aggressive. It's only conservative because the storm looks impressive. Also, *beware* that lightning indicates strengthening but also preceeds an erc. They went 110 at 10am, so 130 is a big 3 hour jump even if subjective data support 145-150. Depends on when they expect the plane. It's definitely doing what everyone said it would do lol. That microwave is in beast country. 

The post above proves my point about knowledge. 

 

Edit: lack of in situ data equals conservative estimate. Remember, a 3 hour increase of 10mph is a lot when you don't have objective data. That's a 24 hour increase of 60mph. It's a 3 hour drop of 5mb. It's probably strengthening faster than that but they need someone in that eye or ascat or both. 

We are now at 28/12/5. 

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Conservative estimates can be justified. I’ve seen beautiful small eyed storms with surprisingly weak winds too. Not saying this is necessarily the case, but here’s an example.

This storm was a cat 2 at its peak: 

image.png.157f633eea7727f6105ea4d0cd4f5f79.png

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12z Euro ending with a 933 mb storm heading NNW towards Cuba.  Would be something to see a storm reach cat 5, make landfall and weaken to a depression, then move back over water and strengthen back to a cat 5.  I assume that's never happened before?  Euro has been super bearish this season so seeing 933 mb ten days out is pretty impressive.

ecmwf_ow850_watl_fh240-240.gif

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Mother of all weenie runs from GFS/GFS-Para and Euro over the last few cycles...and the mother of all weenie satellite images ongoing ATTM. Only took 28 tries and the month of November, but the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is finally doing what we all thought it would.

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Euro is handling the southern stream trough/cutoff off the southeast coast differently than other models.   It is a lot stronger and further southwest in the medium range.   It pulls ETA east and stalls it instead of letting it come north.

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2 hours ago, jpeters3 said:

contrary to what you might all think, I'm sure recon missions aren't cancelled to piss off weather weenies.  There is probably a totally legitimate reason for this decision.

Over the Gulf, by especially Texas, I suspected secret seed operations were going on and they were told to go home. Obviously not here...

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Now closed -80c ring with pockets of -90c with the strongest updrafts. Definitely acting like it's feeling some of that SSWly shear I was talking about earlier. Holds 10-15kts through landfall by the looks.

db72b733-92af-46f7-9164-958e23e6df67.png

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Just now, hlcater said:

Now closed -80c ring with pockets of -90c with the strongest updrafts. Definitely acting like it's feeling some of that SSWly shear I was talking about earlier. Holds 10-15kts through landfall by the looks.

db72b733-92af-46f7-9164-958e23e6df67.png

Looks better in pink for sure. I think it’s still a little bit sheared but otherwise it’s hard to nitpick. 

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2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Constant lightning going off in the eyewall. Recon may find a high end Category 4. Unless there is an ERC/structural change, Eta has our best shot of attaining Category 5 this year in the basin now. Happens now or try again next year I reckon.

17321d9868741a8236d21ec3d1a20993.gif&key=68d190e163d83c107c71042237b64d5e94cd66a4a8f0e1263f67fedbfda0154e

Does this storm have an unusually large stadium effect around a tiny eye?

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1 minute ago, Prospero said:

Looks like Puerto Cabezas is the town to take the brunt; pop. about 67,000. Not really a lot on that coast to the north or south. Hurricane Felix hit it is 2007 as a Cat 5 and left 100 dead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Felix

 

Definitely do not see any LIVE webcams anywhere on the coast.

 

yep, the mosquito coast is pretty empty - excellent tarpon fishing, but otherwise there's not much there other than swamps, snakes and crocodiles.

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