Rtd208 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like the greater strengthening than forecast slightly boosted the SE Ridge enough so Zeta can come further north. It will be interesting to see if some stray wet flakes can make it south of I-80 early Friday before the precipitation cuts off. Zeta winds actually up to 105 mph now. Definitely unexpected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, Rtd208 said: Zeta winds actually up to 105 mph now. Definitely unexpected. New Orleans in for a direct hit. Luckily for them this wasn’t earlier in the summer when this could’ve made a run at near cat 5 like Laura. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Zeta winds actually up to 105 mph now. Definitely unexpected. RI has become the new normal in recent years. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 the 18z nam continues the north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Zeta now at 110 mph. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: New Orleans in for a direct hit. Luckily for them this wasn’t earlier in the summer when this could’ve made a run at near cat 5 like Laura. this could be a Cat 3 at LF a direct hit from a Cat 3 there is no picnic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Zeta now at 110 mph. and now I'm going to go off on the SS scale. There is literally no reason for Cat 3 to begin at 111 mph. No one measures winds at this speed- this is a Cat 3. They need to round out Cat numbers to 5 mph intervals....Cat 3 begins at 110 mph.....no reason for the weird number "111". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/28/hurricane-zeta-track-louisiana/ Flight-level winds during a midafternoon Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight hit 138 mph; extrapolated down to the surface, that would suggest 101 mph winds at the surface. A dropsonde, or probe, released shortly after found a surface wind of 115 mph in the southern eyewall. That would indicate Zeta is near or at major hurricane status. The National Hurricane Center did not upgrade Zeta in their most recent advisory, raising the potential that the measurement was suspect. Regardless, Zeta continues to increase in strength and could approach Category 3 intensity as it makes landfall. NHC: 115 mph winds? Naaahhh, we toss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 18 hours ago, snywx said: I think flakes for all N of 84 on friday morning.. Accumulation will prob be for those above 750'. Anyone above 1500' like MSV could see some advisory snows. Still plenty of time for it to be a dud. Looks even less likely now. Flakes are still a solid bet but meaningful accumulations are probably all but done at this rate save the elevations. Biggest concern turns into the 1-2" of rain followed right up with a freeze Friday afternoon into the evening: gonna be a problem on the roads I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said: Looks even less likely now. Flakes are still a solid bet but meaningful accumulations are probably all but done at this rate save the elevations. Biggest concern turns into the 1-2" of rain followed right up with a freeze Friday afternoon into the evening: gonna be a problem on the roads I'm sure. I want to see the full 00z suite and even the 06z products then switch to HRRR, this might have an October surprise for some who don't expect it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 23 minutes ago, sferic said: I want to see the full 00z suite and even the 06z products then switch to HRRR, this might have an October surprise for some who don't expect it If the surprise is advisory snows that's cool with me, might dry out just too quickly for anything meaningful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Could be some pretty gusty winds with the center of Zeta moving off the NJ shore. Last NAM had 40mph gusts or so especially near the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 0z Nam also has flakes into NYC with temps in the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 00z suite so far looks better for Catskills IMHO @snywx @crossbowftw3 what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, sferic said: 00z suite so far looks better for Catskills IMHO @snywx @crossbowftw3 what do you think? Definitely looking better. 1 run shift from GFS is ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Overnight runs were all kind to the NW of the city. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Please follow NWS statements. Otherwise, am glad modeling continues as previously anticipated and adjusted slightly down yesterday. Still differences of opinion and this is related to temp profiles so it's still possible am a little overstated on my expectations but for now...no change from yesterdays early post. Except... more wind this evening eastern LI where gusts 45 MPH seem possible, and then a repeat around daybreak Friday. Will reevaluate later today but for now, that's all I have. Have a fun day... mPING will be helpful tomorrow on mix and phase changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 6 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: Definitely looking better. 1 run shift from GFS is ridiculous Better for elevations and maybe I can sneak in 1-2 inches? Would be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Better for elevations and maybe I can sneak in 1-2 inches? Would be good I wouldn't be surprised at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 33 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Better for elevations and maybe I can sneak in 1-2 inches? Would be good I still think those N of 84 w/ 750’+ elevation see some sort of accumulation. Advisory snows look likely for those above 1500’ in Sullivan/Ulster counties 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, snywx said: I still think those N of 84 w/ 750’+ elevation see some sort of accumulation. Advisory snows look likely for those above 1500’ in Sullivan/Ulster counties I like where I sit at 2000'. Wouldn't be surprised to overperform there as is often the case especially in early/late season events. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Good Thursday morning again, especially those who want to see some wet snow in the 5 boroughs; - aka NYC. I'll start with--- I hope the NAM is not misleading me and ends up slightly too cold. It definitely snows with accumulations in the not too distant nw-nne suburbs... Whether the CP ASOS records wet snow, or just UP, I think the city will see at a minimum, a period of a mix of rain and wet snow developing around 10-11AM and then trending to all light rain Noon-2P, then ending. IF ASOS doesn't see it, it may not be recorded as an official T. 12z/29 NAM is reconfirming it's recent colder than all models solutions and so while it could still be a NAM slightly too cold scenario, I am leaning NAM, especially since it's closing in on prior GFS-P indicators of 5-6 days ago (I think a fault of the current GFS is that it doesn't handle the BL temps very well in marginal thermal profiles- I think I demonstrated this a couple of time last winter-in advance of a situation in CHI and elsewhere). So, what i expect after primary ZETA has departed and diminished to light rain-drizzle around midnight, is one or two developing moderate to heavy bands within the general cyclonic flow - approaching 500MB flow generated rain/drizzle. Those should develop over NNJ-se NYS and possibly extreme ne PA around 7-9AM and that will be a transition to a colder BL profile and what I think is gloppy wet snowflakes mixed with rain in NYC ~10-11A and a 7 to 1 or something like snow ratio in the nw suburbs of NYC, including nw NJ/se NYS and CT. I've added some 06z NAM time sections and I think you can see where the marginal temps are around 8AM at LGA, then it cools enough at 10-11 AM for a better chance of snow making it down to the ground...not sticking in NYC except maybe roofs/cars--depending on location. One thing tends to always happen...if it snows for an hour or so, the sfc temp drops to 33-34, no matter the northerly surface wind. I've also added a modeled banding signature (black band in NJ) that suggests what I'm talking about and seeing in model data. The snow growth will be briefly decent near 8am Friday in these band's but our temperature profile in NYC at 8AM may still be too warm to see wet snow at that time. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 18 hours ago, romba said: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/28/hurricane-zeta-track-louisiana/ Flight-level winds during a midafternoon Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight hit 138 mph; extrapolated down to the surface, that would suggest 101 mph winds at the surface. A dropsonde, or probe, released shortly after found a surface wind of 115 mph in the southern eyewall. That would indicate Zeta is near or at major hurricane status. The National Hurricane Center did not upgrade Zeta in their most recent advisory, raising the potential that the measurement was suspect. Regardless, Zeta continues to increase in strength and could approach Category 3 intensity as it makes landfall. NHC: 115 mph winds? Naaahhh, we toss Okay, so riddle me this. I was watching TWC right before landfall of the mainland. The coast was already in the eyewall. Gusts were only around 50 mph on the beach. I checked the New Orleans Int'l Airport and they registered one 68 mph gust with sustained winds only at 40 mph, at any one point. How can this be with winds around 110 mph? Are we really classifying the intensity of hurricanes correctly? As I found out, the storm surge is probably the most destructive part, but isn't the the impact at the surface the area to classify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 New NAM is pretty cold and has a period of moderate precip tomorrow with the cold air. Would be nice to see snow tomorrow here even if it won’t be accumulating. North shore hilly areas, colder areas in NYC would have a decent shot I would think, in addition to the northern burbs where snow may actually stick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 I'll gladly take 2 inches here in Liberty NY and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Hi, I've added the 12z/29 NAM thermal profile at LGA... please remember... this is model. Timing could be wrong or too exuberant on profile cooling or very little precipitation left after any changeover in the city. I'll revisit banding in 20 minutes. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 More guidance: For those N of the city... again...wet snow so I'd cut the amounts in half for POU... around 1" The city SREF plume is now down to where I think it should be, nil or 0.1-0.2. Probably melt on contact if it does mix with or change in the city. The banding on the 12z/29 cycle has shifted a little east... so not quite as good a signal but still some action, especially N of I80. I've added a graphic pic for 12z/30... from the 12z/29 SPC HREF... it too can be slightly cold but gives an idea. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Picked up 0.84" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Picked up 0.84" of rain so far today. 0.70 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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