November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[yoda]

56 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So how bad are the new Euro weeklies actually? All I see on twitter is crying about how God awful they are, but no graphics. Some folks like to exaggerate 

 When I see this in the SNE thread

59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully the weeklies are as accurate as last winter. 

Then I immediately know they sucked royally for us without having to go look at them

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

So how bad are the new Euro weeklies actually? All I see on twitter is crying about how God awful they are, but no graphics. Some folks like to exaggerate 

Its sort of a 01-02/11-12 hybrid pattern.  Its not necessarily December 2015 or February 2018 with a roided SER.  Its just a constant weak to moderate AK vortex and although the east is trofy at times there is no decent source of cold air.

[CAPE]

Everyone needs to just enjoy extended fall. Hopefully we can go abnormally dry.

My WAG is we see a period of actual winter from roughly mid Jan to mid Feb, courtesy of a -EPO.

[leo2000]

Very Interesting 

 

Judah Cohen

 

 

[Ji]

Gefs shows a pna in long range

[CAPE]

7 hours ago, Ji said:

Gefs shows a pna in long range

All the globals seem to suggesting a +PNA over the past few runs. Latest extended GEFS brings us this look by mid December. 

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, leo2000 said:

Very Interesting 

 

Judah Cohen

 

 

People actually still listen to that fraud lol

[CAPE]

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

People actually still listen to that fraud lol

He is not so much a fraud as he is a one-trick pony hack.

[frd]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

All the globals seem to suggesting a +PNA over the past few runs. Latest extended GEFS brings us this look by mid December. 

Mentioned the Pac wave train yesterday, and here you have the transition to a +PNA . Today, as you mentioned, more evidence of a + PNA , granted over 600 hours away, but plausible. 

 

 

 

[frd]

@CAPE speculating that even if we get a +PNA what about the cold air source?

 If the EPS is correct Canada is very, very warm. Remarkable,  and a sad situation for cold and snow lovers in the East. . 

 

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, frd said:

@CAPE speculating that even if we get a +PNA what about the cold air source?

 If the EPS is correct Canada is very, very warm. Remarkable,  and a sad situation for cold and snow lovers in the East.  favorable location 

 

 

It probably wouldn't do us much good if it were transient... and the persistent toughing near AK has largely cut off polar air penetration into our source region. I don't expect to see persistence with a stable W US ridge in a favorable position anytime soon. What would really help is if the EPO flipped- that would provide a mechanism to get cold air back into western/central Canada pretty quickly.

[poolz1]

A product of a +PNA after a several weeks long stint of any cold source being choked off....need some EPO help.

Both the GEFS and CFS show a weakening of the SPV around the 20th of Dec. Granted, this predicted weakening is just more of comedown off its high and more toward the ERA5 mean but a weakening nonetheless.  The idea of a developing PNA and then more importantly -EPO would make sense in order to start throwing some jabs at the PV.   

 

[frd]

1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Both the GEFS and CFS show a weakening of the SPV around the 20th of Dec. Granted, this predicted weakening is just more of comedown off its high and more toward the ERA5 mean but a weakening nonetheless. 

This does echo the thoughts of Isotherm's seasonal. We wait and watch. At the least the +PNA may help us from torching if indeed it develops. 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

he persistent toughing near AK has largely cut off polar air penetration into our source region. I don't expect to see persistence with a stable W US ridge in a favorable position anytime soon.

Recalling last winter where robust West Coast ridging was forecasted a few times, only to breakdown or never develop,  due to the compressed and rapid jet stream movement, culprits already discussed last year. But, if we can get a great Pac pattern in prime climo that lasts a week or more, maybe we can score. Watching the seasonal progression of shorter wave lenghts should be interesting as well later in December.    

[frd]

Let's re-visit this forecast in early December. 

 

[frd]

 

Expect the unexpected .............. 

 

[WxUSAF]

Return of December 5?

 

[NorthArlington101]

Return of December 5?
 

I was thinking return of the 2018 December 9th snowstorm... though that might upset some people.

[WxUSAF]

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I was thinking return of the 2018 December 9th snowstorm... though that might upset some people.

What a ruthless post. I like it.

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I was thinking return of the 2018 December 9th snowstorm... though that might upset some people.

Fighting words there.......lol

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What a ruthless post. I like it.

Southerners unite!

[WxUSAF]

Weird to say this, but the GEFS advertised pattern in early December is actually pretty  darn good. Verbatim not much cold air, but if that 500mb pattern occurred, it would end up colder I’d wager. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Weird to say this, but the GEFS advertised pattern in early December is actually pretty  darn good. Verbatim not much cold air, but if that 500mb pattern occurred, it would end up colder I’d wager. 

Looks wet/active. Cold would be good. The fact that it isn't advertising cold in the LR is fine with me since it's usually wrong when it does!

[LP08]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Weird to say this, but the GEFS advertised pattern in early December is actually pretty  darn good. Verbatim not much cold air, but if that 500mb pattern occurred, it would end up colder I’d wager. 

Sign me up for this no doubt.

[WxWatcher007]

30 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Sign me up for this no doubt.

Oh yeah we’d take that all day. Give me a good EPO so that Canada can reload the cold.

[losetoa6]

A bit of a signal on the Eps centered between day 9-12. The past few runs have increased the western ridge  and also depth and longevity of the troughiness in the east 

[Weather Will]

Same with WB 6Z GFS/ GEFS.

[losetoa6]

Yea. The 6z Gfs gets real interesting lol near the end of run. 

[losetoa6]

One thing I've noticed on all guidance is a constant barrage  of storminess . We are closing in on December 1st ... Soooo definitely white becomes a decent possibility . Always fun when something lines up in the short range especially.