yoda Posted November 19, 2020 56 minutes ago, snowman19 said: So how bad are the new Euro weeklies actually? All I see on twitter is crying about how God awful they are, but no graphics. Some folks like to exaggerate When I see this in the SNE thread 59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Hopefully the weeklies are as accurate as last winter. Then I immediately know they sucked royally for us without having to go look at them Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SnowGoose69 Posted November 19, 2020 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: So how bad are the new Euro weeklies actually? All I see on twitter is crying about how God awful they are, but no graphics. Some folks like to exaggerate Its sort of a 01-02/11-12 hybrid pattern. Its not necessarily December 2015 or February 2018 with a roided SER. Its just a constant weak to moderate AK vortex and although the east is trofy at times there is no decent source of cold air. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted November 19, 2020 Everyone needs to just enjoy extended fall. Hopefully we can go abnormally dry. My WAG is we see a period of actual winter from roughly mid Jan to mid Feb, courtesy of a -EPO. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leo2000 Posted November 20, 2020 Very Interesting Judah Cohen Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ji Posted November 20, 2020 Gefs shows a pna in long range Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted November 20, 2020 7 hours ago, Ji said: Gefs shows a pna in long range All the globals seem to suggesting a +PNA over the past few runs. Latest extended GEFS brings us this look by mid December. 5 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snowman19 Posted November 20, 2020 9 hours ago, leo2000 said: Very Interesting Judah Cohen People actually still listen to that fraud lol Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted November 20, 2020 44 minutes ago, snowman19 said: People actually still listen to that fraud lol He is not so much a fraud as he is a one-trick pony hack. 2 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted November 20, 2020 2 hours ago, CAPE said: All the globals seem to suggesting a +PNA over the past few runs. Latest extended GEFS brings us this look by mid December. Mentioned the Pac wave train yesterday, and here you have the transition to a +PNA . Today, as you mentioned, more evidence of a + PNA , granted over 600 hours away, but plausible. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted November 20, 2020 @CAPE speculating that even if we get a +PNA what about the cold air source? If the EPS is correct Canada is very, very warm. Remarkable, and a sad situation for cold and snow lovers in the East. . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted November 20, 2020 20 minutes ago, frd said: @CAPE speculating that even if we get a +PNA what about the cold air source? If the EPS is correct Canada is very, very warm. Remarkable, and a sad situation for cold and snow lovers in the East. favorable location It probably wouldn't do us much good if it were transient... and the persistent toughing near AK has largely cut off polar air penetration into our source region. I don't expect to see persistence with a stable W US ridge in a favorable position anytime soon. What would really help is if the EPO flipped- that would provide a mechanism to get cold air back into western/central Canada pretty quickly. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
poolz1 Posted November 20, 2020 A product of a +PNA after a several weeks long stint of any cold source being choked off....need some EPO help. Both the GEFS and CFS show a weakening of the SPV around the 20th of Dec. Granted, this predicted weakening is just more of comedown off its high and more toward the ERA5 mean but a weakening nonetheless. The idea of a developing PNA and then more importantly -EPO would make sense in order to start throwing some jabs at the PV. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted November 20, 2020 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Both the GEFS and CFS show a weakening of the SPV around the 20th of Dec. Granted, this predicted weakening is just more of comedown off its high and more toward the ERA5 mean but a weakening nonetheless. This does echo the thoughts of Isotherm's seasonal. We wait and watch. At the least the +PNA may help us from torching if indeed it develops. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted November 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: he persistent toughing near AK has largely cut off polar air penetration into our source region. I don't expect to see persistence with a stable W US ridge in a favorable position anytime soon. Recalling last winter where robust West Coast ridging was forecasted a few times, only to breakdown or never develop, due to the compressed and rapid jet stream movement, culprits already discussed last year. But, if we can get a great Pac pattern in prime climo that lasts a week or more, maybe we can score. Watching the seasonal progression of shorter wave lenghts should be interesting as well later in December. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted November 20, 2020 Let's re-visit this forecast in early December. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted November 20, 2020 Expect the unexpected .............. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2020 Return of December 5? 2 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthArlington101 Posted November 20, 2020 Return of December 5? I was thinking return of the 2018 December 9th snowstorm... though that might upset some people. 2 4 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted November 20, 2020 20 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I was thinking return of the 2018 December 9th snowstorm... though that might upset some people. What a ruthless post. I like it. 4 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chris78 Posted November 20, 2020 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: I was thinking return of the 2018 December 9th snowstorm... though that might upset some people. Fighting words there.......lol Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 20, 2020 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: What a ruthless post. I like it. Southerners unite! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2020 Weird to say this, but the GEFS advertised pattern in early December is actually pretty darn good. Verbatim not much cold air, but if that 500mb pattern occurred, it would end up colder I’d wager. 6 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthArlington101 Posted November 21, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Weird to say this, but the GEFS advertised pattern in early December is actually pretty darn good. Verbatim not much cold air, but if that 500mb pattern occurred, it would end up colder I’d wager. Looks wet/active. Cold would be good. The fact that it isn't advertising cold in the LR is fine with me since it's usually wrong when it does! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LP08 Posted November 21, 2020 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Weird to say this, but the GEFS advertised pattern in early December is actually pretty darn good. Verbatim not much cold air, but if that 500mb pattern occurred, it would end up colder I’d wager. Sign me up for this no doubt. 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted November 21, 2020 30 minutes ago, LP08 said: Sign me up for this no doubt. Oh yeah we’d take that all day. Give me a good EPO so that Canada can reload the cold. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted November 21, 2020 A bit of a signal on the Eps centered between day 9-12. The past few runs have increased the western ridge and also depth and longevity of the troughiness in the east Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Weather Will Posted November 21, 2020 Same with WB 6Z GFS/ GEFS. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted November 21, 2020 Yea. The 6z Gfs gets real interesting lol near the end of run. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted November 21, 2020 One thing I've noticed on all guidance is a constant barrage of storminess . We are closing in on December 1st ... Soooo definitely white becomes a decent possibility . Always fun when something lines up in the short range especially. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites