November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[poolz1]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

I looked at the extended GEFS h5 pattern at 18z.  You couldn’t ask for more boring and flat look. North side of normal for temps.  That takes us to Wed before Thanksgiving.  I won’t need the heat or the AC if that holds. Meh. 

I saw a D10 -NAO start to show up....beautiful 50/50. But yea, the entire NH sucks other than that little straw grasping tidbit. 

[CAPE]

7 hours ago, poolz1 said:

I saw a D10 -NAO start to show up....beautiful 50/50. But yea, the entire NH sucks other than that little straw grasping tidbit. 

Closest we get to anything decent in the NA over the next 15 days is this period, and that is more of a Scandinavian ridge, not a -NAO. It's a better look than we have now though. It would likely give us normal to maybe slightly below temps, and that would probably continue into Thanksgiving at least. Looks dry too.

 

[H2O]

Are we back to believing D10 -NAOs and -AO?

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

Are we back to believing D10 -NAOs and -AO?

No. Always a mirage,

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

No. Always a mirage,

I was encouraged by what you posted above.  Appreciate that.  Been watching each run of GEFS as we are getting to closer prime time.  

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I was encouraged by what you posted above.  Appreciate that.  Been watching each run of GEFS as we are getting to closer prime time.  

All subject to change at this range, but for now the GEFS, and the GEPS, are suggesting we may actually see seasonable temps the week of thanksgiving.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

All subject to change at this range, but for now the GEFS, and the GEPS, are suggesting we may actually see seasonable temps the week of thanksgiving.

That Pac though...  ugh.  I think the hints are piling up that this year will be in the really bad pac setup Nina category. If so our only hope to get any snow will be a period of blocking. Doesn’t have to be a predominant winter feature. 2000 was a positive NAO winter but we had 2 weeks of blocking and cashed in!  A few years in the similar set Im looking at we got some blocking late and a little snow in March to avoid a total shutout.  But in the moderate/strong Nina with a flat pac ridge analog set I see absolutely no snow without blocking. Not a single fluke storm. So I know this isn’t where we want to be...but if we don’t get any blocking we’re in BIG trouble imo. 

[psuhoffman]

I am not throwing in the towel yet...maybe the pac is throwing false signals (unlikely) or maybe we get some blocking (past results don’t always predict future outcomes). 

[leesburg 04]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That Pac though...  ugh.  I think the hints are piling up that this year will be in the really bad pac setup Nina category. If so our only hope to get any snow will be a period of blocking. Doesn’t have to be a predominant winter feature. 2000 was a positive NAO winter but we had 2 weeks of blocking and cashed in!  A few years in the similar set Im looking at we got some blocking late and a little snow in March to avoid a total shutout.  But in the moderate/strong Nina with a flat pac ridge analog set I see absolutely no snow without blocking. Not a single fluke storm. So I know this isn’t where we want to be...but if we don’t get any blocking we’re in BIG trouble imo. 

I look forward to your next post saying this again with different words 

[WxUSAF]

Brief cold air shot next week is gaining some oomph over the last day or two of runs. Verbatim 12z gfs says should be enough for freezes everywhere except probably DCA. Highs in the 40s as well.

[CAPE]

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That Pac though...  ugh.  I think the hints are piling up that this year will be in the really bad pac setup Nina category. If so our only hope to get any snow will be a period of blocking. Doesn’t have to be a predominant winter feature. 2000 was a positive NAO winter but we had 2 weeks of blocking and cashed in!  A few years in the similar set Im looking at we got some blocking late and a little snow in March to avoid a total shutout.  But in the moderate/strong Nina with a flat pac ridge analog set I see absolutely no snow without blocking. Not a single fluke storm. So I know this isn’t where we want to be...but if we don’t get any blocking we’re in BIG trouble imo. 

At this point I am just looking forward to some Fall days that actually feel like it. Feels like Florida out there today.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I have hoped for 30 years for a 1989-90 flip but in reverse. That flip that year was something of legend. Never seen anything like it.

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Brief cold air shot next week is gaining some oomph over the last day or two of runs. Verbatim 12z gfs says should be enough for freezes everywhere except probably DCA. Highs in the 40s as well.

Wow, euro and ggem even colder. Upper 30s highs next Wednesday and mid 20s Thursday morning.

[H2O]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Wow, euro and ggem even colder. Upper 30s highs next Wednesday and mid 20s Thursday morning.

What warm November?  Vodka cold 12/1-3/30!!!!!!

[Wonderdog]

Thanksgiving Eve snowstorm for NOVA, Bristow. Just for you!

[BristowWx]

23 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Thanksgiving Eve snowstorm for NOVA, Bristow. Just for you!

That’s why I wrote Wonderdog on my ballot this year!  

[WxUSAF]

First freeze let’s go!

 

[CAPE]

Impressive, but man is it fleeting. Hopefully it gets the job done(legit freeze).

[Ji]

I am not throwing in the towel yet...maybe the pac is throwing false signals (unlikely) or maybe we get some blocking (past results don’t always predict future outcomes). 

How did 2013-14 look in the fall of 2013? Was there any hints a big winter was in store. Between 2009 and 2016...we did really well snow wise

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

12 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I am not throwing in the towel yet...maybe the pac is throwing false signals (unlikely) or maybe we get some blocking (past results don’t always predict future outcomes). 

How did 2013-14 look in the fall of 2013? Was there any hints a big winter was in store. Between 2009 and 2016...we did really well snow wise

I didn’t think it was going to be that good but there were some signs it wasn’t headed toward a dumpster fire in the fall that year. 

[yoda]

14 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Wow, euro and ggem even colder. Upper 30s highs next Wednesday and mid 20s Thursday morning.

Looks like our best friend Mr. Wind could be playing along too lol... from morning AFD from LWX about next week

Next low pressure system associated with longwave trof across
the upper Great Lks early next week is deeper and moves faster
into Quebec by 12Z Mon. Modest moisture will increase ahead of
cdfnt Sun with showers likely in western areas Sunday and
possibly spreading east of the mtns Sun night. Any amounts are
expected to be very light. Strong cold front then sweeps
through the area late Sun night or early Monday with blustery
conditions developing. Brisk conditions will persist through the
middle of next week before temps begin to moderate during the second
half of next week.

[Weather Will]

JB posted on WB post. If it snows Christmas week, the winter will get an “A” in my book...Oz EURO control Christmas week.

[Ji]

winter is coming

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

JB posted on WB post. If it snows Christmas week, the winter will get an “A” in my book...Oz EURO control Christmas week.

I’m looking forward to my first 3” probability map.

[CAPE]

Euro control. Hour 1104. Oh yeah, that has a chance.

[WinterWxLuvr]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Euro control. Hour 1104. Oh yeah, that has a chance.

It’s almost as good as those 6 month CFS forecasts I used to see. Not sure if they even run them anymore

[Weather Will]

We’ll see if the teleconnections signaling a colder period starting later next week through Thanksgiving holds...EURO 12Z.

[cbmclean]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

We’ll see if the teleconnections signaling a colder period starting later next week through Thanksgiving holds...EURO 12Z.

For the PNA to trend back towards 0 would be a big win.  The NAO/AO are interesting.  In both cases the control looks very promising towards the end of the month, but you can see that in both cases the ensemble means are in + territory.  That tells me that there is a minority of members that are predicting solid negative departures, but the majority of the members are positive.  Does anyone know what the meaning of the thicker blue bar in the middle of the spread lines.  Is that like the 25 - 75th percentile?

[frd]

13 hours ago, Weather Will said:

We’ll see if the teleconnections signaling a colder period starting later next week through Thanksgiving holds...EURO 12Z.

 

Little faith in those indices. Many , many false attempts the last 24 months.

Enjoy the outdoors late month.  

 

  

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

On 11/10/2020 at 11:45 AM, WinterWxLuvr said:

I have hoped for 30 years for a 1989-90 flip but in reverse. That flip that year was something of legend. Never seen anything like it.

2014-15?