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WinterWxLuvr

November Medium/Long Range Discussion

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

0z GFS op for Mid November. I guess it was a 3-run epic -NAO mirage lol. 

gfs_z500a_namer_60.png

GEFS still has some +Heights up top but digs a trough out west the last couple runs.

After this cold blast we're looking like multiple weeks to take care of any outdoor yard issues

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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

0z GFS op for Mid November. I guess it was a 3-run epic -NAO mirage lol. 

gfs_z500a_namer_60.png

GEFS still has some +Heights up top but digs a trough out west the last couple runs.

The GEFS look could work later in winter. November and December we tend to need some Pac cooperation. 

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As mentioned a couple days ago we may not be done after Eta as the EPS indicates more activity. 

Meanwhile the robust WAR becomes an even bigger player later this week, approaching 588 DM. , simply incredible ! 

On the speculation side, maybe an anomalous weather event later in November in the East.  

  

 

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image.thumb.png.2ce2356fec66c87abd6a3cf8fafe4d4e.png

almost a carbon copy of the dominant patter from last year.  Maybe we can get it out of the way early this year.:ee:

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30 minutes ago, LP08 said:

almost a carbon copy of the dominant patter from last year.  Maybe we can get it out of the way early this year.:ee:

Does that include sacrificing December?:yikes:

cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_1.png

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13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Does that include sacrificing December?:yikes:

I hope your mower is still gassed up. 

I envision 3 more grass cuttings. 

Wondering if simply by chaos we re shuffle the playbook temporarily to  a colder pattern in early December.  Some things do look to change by mid November and rolling forward could  lead to a colder outcome in the East. We all know there is a lot going against us, but hopefully the next 30 days provides more insight to the weather near the holidays and beyond.    

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26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Does that include sacrificing December?:yikes:

cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_1.png

I'm sure the Euro Weeklies will save us :)

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11 minutes ago, frd said:

I hope your mower is still gassed up. 

I envision 3 more grass cuttings. 

Wondering if simply by chaos we re shuffle the playbook temporarily to  a colder pattern in early December.  Some things do look to change by mid November and rolling forward could  lead to a colder outcome in the East. We all know there is a lot going against us, but hopefully the next 30 days provides more insight to the weather near the holidays and beyond.    

I mow/mulch until early December, when all the leaves are finally down.

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20 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Wondering if simply by chaos we re shuffle the playbook temporarily to  a colder pattern in early December.  Some things do look to change by mid November and rolling forward could  lead to a colder outcome in the East. We all know there is a lot going against us, but hopefully the next 30 days provides more insight to the weather near the holidays and beyond.    

Latest GEFS runs are not as enthused with building heights up top around/beyond mid month. We have seen this perpetual kick the can routine many times when it comes to advertising HL +height anomalies in the LR.

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43 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest GEFS runs are not as enthused with building heights up top around/beyond mid month. We have seen this perpetual kick the can routine many times when it comes to advertising HL +height anomalies in the LR.

Well enjoy the outdoors.  Better to be outside then in. I will welcome any winter cold during the next 5 months.  I can't even recall the last 6 I ch or greater snowfall here.  

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36 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looking beyond our mild/warm and boring stretch of weather, mid next week looks to become active with possible tropical connection.

Oh joy. Some mud and humidity to add to the heat. I can't stand humidity this time of year. Everything stays damp all day.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Looking beyond our mild/warm and boring stretch of weather, mid next week looks to become active with possible tropical connection.

WPC is gradually increasing precip amounts in Days 6 and 7 as you mention. 

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Some indications that the spv and the tpv may start to couple later in the month. From Matt Hugo

<

Some evidence now as well for +ve uWind anoms to make the link between the strat and trop looking ahead further into Nov, especially between 70-90N. Note how the yellow and orange colours descend from 100hPa down to surface. Another potential sign that blocking is less likely...

>

 

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Mid and late next week still looks potentially active/juicy.

 

Grass cutting to Jan this year. Soil moisture crazy high, fog every morning, dew points backing up eventually. 

Thinking ahead to what becomes of the SSTs in the Western Atlantic. They may never really decline that much if this is a very warm winter.  

 

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From Mount Holly on the potential for next week-

A deep upper trough in place across the southwestern CONUS is forecast to eject northeastward late Monday into Tuesday while TC Eta churns across south Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The ejecting trough will send a surge of deep tropical moisture associated with Eta poleward by the middle of the week. Eta itself is forecast to remain over the Gulf of Mexico and will presumably dissipate there via strong wind shear by the middle to end of the week. The dynamics and forcing from the trough will arrive across our area into Wednesday as the tropical moisture arrives and, long story short, it looks quite wet. Precipitable water values could surge well above 2", which would shatter November records at IAD and OKX. A first guess at rainfall amounts would be widespread values in the 1-2" range during the Wednesday time frame, however a lot can and will change with regard to the timing and placement of heaviest rain over the coming days.

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57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s basically climo, so doesn’t mean much

That’s what I said all of last year. The eps has what, like 50 members? So you get 5 showing a one foot snow, 5 showing an 8” snow and there’s 100” and a mean of 2”. Never mind the fact that 80% showed zilch. It’s a TFU product.

That’s my new acronym for the winter TFU.

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Some guys on phillywx have tracked the threshold on the EPS (let alone the weeklies) where a snowfall mean actually means it will snow. Minimum is usually 2-3”, but typically more like 4-5”. And that’s within 2 weeks, not 6.

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5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Some guys on phillywx have tracked the threshold on the EPS (let alone the weeklies) where a snowfall mean actually means it will snow. Minimum is usually 2-3”, but typically more like 4-5”. And that’s within 2 weeks, not 6.

Party pooper. 

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Maybe some small glimmers of hope on the ATL side as we get later in Nov but the Pac crap looks pretty darn stable.  There does seem to be agreement with a fairly stable 50/50ish low in the LR. 

Cant imagine the 35 day GEFS have much use but when every member shows a very strong PV you have to think its on to something.  CFSv2 shows much more spread but certainly leans in the GEFS direction.

gT3Xvke.png

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6 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

a very strong PV you have to think its on to something.  CFSv2 shows much more spread but certainly leans in the GEFS direction

Good points. I have noticed over time the CFSv2 trends to the GEFS. 

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The easterly phase of the QBO favors strat warming/weakening of the SPV, and currently it is in the westerly phase, and moving more positive. Unless the SPV couples down to the surface though(disaster), the focus really should be on the TPV, which is broader and more directly influences sensible weather. I still think our best bet for a period of cold air delivery into the east lies with blocking in the EPO domain, like the current CFS runs are suggesting for Jan. If it happens it probably won't last that long, but a 2-3 week period of a mini version of 2013-14 might be our best hope. I will expect a predominant +AO/NAO until I see otherwise in real time.

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1 hour ago, frd said:

Good points. I have noticed over time the CFSv2 trends to the GEFS. 

The Euro seasonal actually shows a -NAO in December but it’s ruined with a God awful PAC side at the same time....has a huge vortex over AK/++EPO. All the -NAO would do in that case is bring down junk PAC air. If the Euro is wrong about the PAC being that bad, then December would be the best shot at being the wintry month, it shows the next 3 months (Jan-Mar) after with just raging +NAO and +AO. There is some support for a -NAO in December, question will be how bad is the PAC at that point?

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Just looking at h5 it really stays warm until Thanksgiving week where who knows after that.  I bet I could have went early Dec at DCA for the first freeze and probably would still be too early.  

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We all know they usually go negative in the last week of November / First week or two in December, then go positive again until March or April. Watch it happen again... hopefully not.

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I looked at the extended GEFS h5 pattern at 18z.  You couldn’t ask for more boring and flat look. North side of normal for temps.  That takes us to Wed before Thanksgiving.  I won’t need the heat or the AC if that holds. Meh. 

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