Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Snownado]

4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Exactly. Storms that we in the Midwest and the northeast can't possibly appreciate would make someone's day down south. It's just so much more rare that if they get their once-a-winter opportunity, I'm not gonna bitch about it.

As someone who has lived in the south most of my life, i miss the excitement that even the smallest of snows brings down there. Up here, if there's a 1-3" snow nobody even mentions it. Last weekend when they were calling for 1-2" in Indy ( which never materialized) i was super pumped up and stayed up until 4am and then gave up. I just hope to see the ground covered again before winter is over.

[McHenrySnow]

31 minutes ago, Snownado said:

As someone who has lived in the south most of my life, i miss the excitement that even the smallest of snows brings down there. Up here, if there's a 1-3" snow nobody even mentions it. Last weekend when they were calling for 1-2" in Indy ( which never materialized) i was super pumped up and stayed up until 4am and then gave up. I just hope to see the ground covered again before winter is over.

Grew up in Kentucky and do the same. I'm excited for literally any flake of snow. 

[Snownado]

19 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Grew up in Kentucky and do the same. I'm excited for literally any flake of snow. 

I grew up along the I-20 corridor where we would go years without even getting a flake !

[Baum]

23 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Grew up in Kentucky and do the same. I'm excited for literally any flake of snow. 

today was your day. And the last 6 days has been epic.

[McHenrySnow]

25 minutes ago, Baum said:

today was your day. And the last 6 days has been epic.

The rime from the freezing fog was gorgeous today! 

[steve23guy]

Nice freezing fog left me with this at the park during work 

[RCNYILWX]

Revisiting what I posted earlier today, no changes in overall thinking based off most recent ensemble runs. End of 12z EPS quite promising in showing a slightly -PNA developing as the western NOAM ridge retrogrades off the west coast, which the GEFS continues to point toward as well. We can only hope this look gets to within 10 days because I could see it offering multiple chances to more than localized portions of the sub given the -AO/-NAO favored to lock in.

 

Prior to that, definitely a stagnant zzzz look. There's a chance some southern stream energy can break through later Sunday into Monday to bring a light snow threat for some areas. Ensembles showing low to medium chances of light measurable QPF during that time and the 12z GGEM did show a weak wave as well. Definitely not seeing anything supporting even widespread advisory type snows while we're in this blocky STJ dominated pattern, barring sizable changes in the medium range.

 

 

 

 

[McHenrySnow]

1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Revisiting what I posted earlier today, no changes in overall thinking based off most recent ensemble runs. End of 12z EPS quite promising in showing a slightly -PNA developing as the western NOAM ridge retrogrades off the west coast, which the GEFS continues to point toward as well. We can only hope this look gets to within 10 days because I could see it offering multiple chances to more than localized portions of the sub given the -AO/-NAO favored to lock in.

Prior to that, definitely a stagnant zzzz look. There's a chance some southern stream energy can break through later Sunday into Monday to bring a light snow threat for some areas. Ensembles showing low to medium chances of light measurable QPF during that time and the 12z GGEM did show a weak wave as well. Definitely not seeing anything supporting even widespread advisory type snows while we're in this blocky STJ dominated pattern.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

As long as I can retain much of my snow cover, I'll be okay until it snows again. 

[McHenrySnow]

Looks like a squall line coming down from Wisconsin. lol

[luckyweather]

Prior to that, definitely a stagnant zzzz look

I keep looking for a zzzz or bank clock reference in the LOT afd’s but you haven’t thrown us a bone yet...

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Revisiting what I posted earlier today, no changes in overall thinking based off most recent ensemble runs. End of 12z EPS quite promising in showing a slightly -PNA developing as the western NOAM ridge retrogrades off the west coast, which the GEFS continues to point toward as well. We can only hope this look gets to within 10 days because I could see it offering multiple chances to more than localized portions of the sub given the -AO/-NAO favored to lock in.

 

Prior to that, definitely a stagnant zzzz look. There's a chance some southern stream energy can break through later Sunday into Monday to bring a light snow threat for some areas. Ensembles showing low to medium chances of light measurable QPF during that time and the 12z GGEM did show a weak wave as well. Definitely not seeing anything supporting even widespread advisory type snows while we're in this blocky STJ dominated pattern, barring sizable changes in the medium range.

 

 

 

 

 It would be nice to get a spread the wealth pattern rather than local jackpots each system.  What kind of systems does that pattern tend to favor?

[RCNYILWX]

 It would be nice to get a spread the wealth pattern rather than local jackpots each system.  What kind of systems does that pattern tend to favor?

I attached the ensemble mean (EPS first 2 and GEFS next 2 images) 200 mb isotachs (wind speeds) to illustrate. If you go from current to out around day 10 or so, the pattern blocks off the northern stream/Polar Jet and is very southern stream dominant, hence the overall zzzz look. The pattern on the attached images is quite different from that, with the northern Pacific/polar jet coming ashore and coupling with the enhanced southern stream forced underneath the block. The -NAO is quite evident in the anti-cyclonic curvature of the height lines up to the vicinity of Greenland.    

 

 

Anyway, I'd envision Pacific hybrid type systems and clippers in the above pattern depending on point of entry short-wave impulses. If the -PNA trend the EPS and GEFS are showing out at the end of their respective runs is legit, then you can get a west southwest to east northeast tracking Colorado low that would eventually see the primary running into the block and a secondary probably redevelop underneath. Could also see that with more vigorous Pac hybrid systems tracking from west northwest to east southeast.

 

I might get attacked by Angrysummons for this, but if I'm not mistaken both 2009-10 and 2010-11, the most recent examples of prolonged sustained -AO/-NAO blocks during the heart of met winter also were accompanied by periods of neutral to negative PNA. Not bringing these up as a promise of what we'll get, but as a way to demonstrate that the east coast weenies getting excited about the upcoming pattern doesn't have to automatically mean we'll get screwed out in the central and western subforum.

 

I certainly can't guarantee some systems not getting suppressed and favoring southern parts of sub and points south and then the east coast, but as modeled and if we can get them into non-fantasy time-range, the ensemble means look solid for a good chunk of the sub to cash in potentially. You don't see it by looking solely at the 500 mb anomalies, but there is a suppressed WAR progged off the east coast, so that's not a northwest flow CAD hell look to me once out to mid month.

 

Finally, if we go back to the last strong -NAO during the cold season, March-April 2018, that period had some more than solid winter systems that benefitted portions of the sub.

 

Would like to see any long range experts or enthusiasts chime in with feedback on my thoughts. Don't want to get hopes up too much quite yet when there's a lot of time to go.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[RCNYILWX]

I keep looking for a zzzz or bank clock reference in the LOT afd’s but you haven’t thrown us a bone yet...

If only we could be as creative in our AFDs like back in the day when Gino had a Facebook group dedicated to his AFDs haha. My main source of optimism right now is that it looks like we're unlikely to melt the glacier much before the hopeful arrival of a better pattern, so until that time, at least it's better than no snow OTG on these cloudy/foggy days and the kids can get out and sled every day. I spent hours doing that with my kids over the holiday weekend  

 

 

 

 

[McHenrySnow]

just had a good burst of snow with the trough moving through, got in the "yellow" on the super res radar. came down pretty good for about 5-10 minutes. solid coating. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

If only we could be as creative in our AFDs like back in the day when Gino had a Facebook group dedicated to his AFDs haha. My main source of optimism right now is that it looks like we're unlikely to melt the glacier much before the hopeful arrival of a better pattern, so until that time, at least it's better than no snow OTG on these cloudy/foggy days and the kids can get out and sled every day. I spent hours doing that with my kids over the holiday weekend  

 

 

 

 

Got a grass/glacier mix here.  Too many bare spots.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

I attached the ensemble mean (EPS first 2 and GEFS next 2 images) 200 mb isotachs (wind speeds) to illustrate. If you go from current to out around day 10 or so, the pattern blocks off the northern stream/Polar Jet and is very southern stream dominant, hence the overall zzzz look. The pattern on the attached images is quite different from that, with the northern Pacific/polar jet coming ashore and coupling with the enhanced southern stream forced underneath the block. The -NAO is quite evident in the anti-cyclonic curvature of the height lines up to the vicinity of Greenland.    

 

 

Anyway, I'd envision Pacific hybrid type systems and clippers in the above pattern depending on point of entry short-wave impulses. If the -PNA trend the EPS and GEFS are showing out at the end of their respective runs is legit, then you can get a west southwest to east northeast tracking Colorado low that would eventually see the primary running into the block and a secondary probably redevelop underneath. Could also see that with more vigorous Pac hybrid systems tracking from west northwest to east southeast.

 

I might get attacked by Angrysummons for this, but if I'm not mistaken both 2009-10 and 2010-11, the most recent examples of prolonged sustained -AO/-NAO blocks during the heart of met winter also were accompanied by periods of neutral to negative PNA. Not bringing these up as a promise of what we'll get, but as a way to demonstrate that the east coast weenies getting excited about the upcoming pattern doesn't have to automatically mean we'll get screwed out in the central and western subforum.

 

I certainly can't guarantee some systems not getting suppressed and favoring southern parts of sub and points south and then the east coast, but as modeled and if we can get them into non-fantasy time-range, the ensemble means look solid for a good chunk of the sub to cash in potentially. You don't see it by looking solely at the 500 mb anomalies, but there is a suppressed WAR progged off the east coast, so that's not a northwest flow CAD hell look to me once out to mid month.

 

Finally, if we go back to the last strong -NAO during the cold season, March-April 2018, that period had some more than solid winter systems that benefitted portions of the sub.

 

Would like to see any long range experts or enthusiasts chime in with feedback on my thoughts. Don't want to get hopes up too much quite yet when there's a lot of time to go.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Excellent thoughts. It's nice to have an explanation as opposed to just looking at a surface map of model qpf which will change 100 times. As mentioned earlier, an east coast pattern still usually gives some love to eastern Michigan, most of Ohio, and points eastward, reaching as far north as Toronto. But those often leave the western/central sub zzzz. So an east pattern that gives plenty of love to the Midwest, sign me up 

[RyanDe680]

Worst part of winter.  Grey.  Glacier. Dry.

 

 

[cyclone77]

Yeah it's a big change from a few days back when every little model run was scrutinized for any little possible change.  Now it's kind of like now what?  Just give us something to track, anything lol.  These long stretches with nothing are mind numbing this time of year.  Maybe it's because I'm getting older, but I don't remember there being so many long periods of absolutely nothing to track for weeks at a time back in the "old days".  Prob should have put this in the complaint thread lol.

[Malacka11]

I don't wanna screw us all, but I do think that if we can just survive the next seven days, there will at least be an event to look forward to tracking. 

[RCNYILWX]

Yeah it's a big change from a few days back when every little model run was scrutinized for any little possible change.  Now it's kind of like now what?  Just give us something to track, anything lol.  These long stretches with nothing are mind numbing this time of year.  Maybe it's because I'm getting older, but I don't remember there being so many long periods of absolutely nothing to track for weeks at a time back in the "old days".  Prob should have put this in the complaint thread lol.

Maybe there's something to that with these blocky stagnant patterns seemingly getting more frequent? But on the other hand could recency bias be at play? I only ask because my time out here is 10.5 years now and at least for me, these relatively lengthy dull stretches don't seem that much out of place.   

 

 

The legendary winter of 13-14 was very much out of the norm. Even the 2010-11 winter, my first out here, had a decent December, followed by a pretty quiet January until GHD I and then February really wasn't all that great out here after GHD I. I've wondered if the 2007-08 through 2010-11 winters and then 13-14 and to a lesser extent 14-15 coming not too long after that stretch helped drive the perception of how a winter should be because that's when these forums became popular. I've heard it mentioned many times here that the 90s overall weren't great and neither were the 80s.

 

The 2000s were pretty spotty too until the aforementioned stretch kicked off by 07-08. You had epic months like December '00 followed by long doldrums. You had good months like January '05 and February '07 following very long mild stretches and outright bad winters like 01-02 and 03-04 and much of 05-06. Don't get me wrong, I became passionate about the weather because of east coast snowstorms and badly want us to have a major region wide event this winter. But I really think our climo owes to having at least one or two lengthy disappointing stretches a winter even in solid winters.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[vortex]

50 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Maybe there's something to that with these blocky stagnant patterns seemingly getting more frequent? But on the other hand could recency bias be at play? I only ask because my time out here is 10.5 years now and at least for me, these relatively lengthy dull stretches don't seem that much out of place. 

 

 

The legendary winter of 13-14 was very much out of the norm. Even the 2010-11 winter, my first out here, had a decent December, followed by a pretty quiet January until GHD I and then February really wasn't all that great out here after GHD I. I've wondered if the 2007-08 through 2010-11 winters and then 13-14 and to a lesser extent 14-15 coming not too long after that stretch helped drive the perception of how a winter should be because that's when these forums became popular. I've heard it mentioned many times here that the 90s overall weren't great and neither were the 80s.

 

The 2000s were pretty spotty too until the aforementioned stretch kicked off by 07-08. You had epic months like December 01 followed by long doldrums. You had good months like January 05 and February 07 following very long mild stretches and outright bad winters like 01-02 and 03-04 and much of 05-06. Don't get me wrong, I became passionate about the weather because of east coast snowstorms and badly want us to have a major region wide event this winter. But I really think our climo owes to having at least one or two lengthy disappointing stretches a winter even in solid winters.

 

 

 

 

 

I’m thinking you meant December of 2000? December 01 stunk snow wise.   

Overall I agree with your statement.  I remember plenty of boring stretches of winter weather, especially 90s and early 2000s.  

[RCNYILWX]

I’m thinking you meant December of 2000? December 01 stunk snow wise.   

 

Overall I agree with your statement.  I remember plenty of boring stretches of winter weather, especially 90s and early 2000s.  

Yep, meant December 2000, will fix that in my original post, thanks for catching it.

 

 

 

[Baum]

Winter doldrums early. Part of the climo. Will just make us enjoy the good stretch when it comes. And these stretches can sometimes breed a surprise or two event....especially in January.

[A-L-E-K]

zzzzzzzzzz

[TheRegionRat]

12 hours ago, luckyweather said:

I keep looking for a zzzz or bank clock reference in the LOT afd’s but you haven’t thrown us a bone yet...

Bone thrown this morning in the LOT AFD regarding a pattern change.

The forecast for the later half of the period, which encompasses
the weekend through early next week, continues to be dry with
seasonal temperatures. However, there are signs that as we head
into the middle to end of next week that the upper level pattern
may begin to transition to a more active northwesterly flow
pattern across the central CONUS. This could thus result in some
colder weather and better chances for precipitation beyond the
current forecast period.

[Baum]

biggest  office, Quad Cities, counters:

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WET WEATHER IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE   
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. IS UNUSUALLY QUIET FOR THIS   
TIME OF YEAR. THERE ARE NO ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS OR SIGNIFICANT   
STORM SYSTEMS ON THE IMMEDIATE HORIZON.

[A-L-E-K]

1 hour ago, TheRegionRat said:

Bone thrown this morning in the LOT AFD regarding a pattern change.

The forecast for the later half of the period, which encompasses
the weekend through early next week, continues to be dry with
seasonal temperatures. However, there are signs that as we head
into the middle to end of next week that the upper level pattern
may begin to transition to a more active northwesterly flow
pattern across the central CONUS. This could thus result in some
colder weather and better chances for precipitation beyond the
current forecast period.

i don't see shit about the bank clock in  that AFD

anyways, i'm ready 2 b dusted, bring the NW flow

 

[Cary67]

26 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

i don't see shit about the bank clock in  that AFD

anyways, i'm ready 2 b dusted, bring the NW flow

 

Unless heralded "pattern" change to a colder regime happens mid to late month ORD may have a tough time reaching 15" by Feb

[A-L-E-K]

28 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Unless heralded "pattern" change to a colder regime happens mid to late month ORD may have a tough time reaching 15" by Feb

ez bust 4 u there, sorry

[Snownado]

This says it all folks. Look at all that snow in the south compared to Indy.