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Hoosier

Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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9 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

There is a chance this pattern may lock in for a while 

Looks similar to December

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On 1/2/2021 at 5:11 AM, A-L-E-K said:

Zzzzzz

Can always count on Alek for a succinct analysis of the mid-range outlook.

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5 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Can always count on Alek for a succinct analysis of the mid-range outlook.

I'd say zzzzz too except I don't trust any of these models more than a day maybe 2 out the way they've been performing.  It could snow pigeon eggs Wed. night for all they know  :weenie:

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I'm much more into short/medium range stuff and would defer to mets and other knowledgeable people for the long range, but fwiw, I agree with the idea of things getting better after mid-month or so.  There are no guarantees that it will work out to everybody's liking, but overall I think that it will be a pattern with more cold air available for systems to work with instead of the super marginal thermal setups that we have been seeing. 

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7 hours ago, Cary67 said:

EC and lower OV getting excited. El Nino reborn for the next few weeks

Euro maybe picking up on it

Screenshot_20210103-140113_Samsung Internet.jpg

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going to be a brutal back half of January. Rest up, if you love winter weather. Lot of model watching coming.

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

going to be a brutal back half of January. Rest up, if you love winter weather. Lot of model watching coming.



Current Teleconnections:
nao.sprd2.gif
ao.sprd2.gif
pna.sprd2.gif

12z GFS:
sfct.us_ov.png
18z GFS:
sfct.us_ov.png

 

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1 hour ago, hlcater said:

The BSR and LRC are meteorology’s equivalent to voodoo dolls and dark magic

Its one of the best long range forecasting tools out there. Not perfect though 

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On 1/4/2021 at 12:04 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

image.thumb.png.94039ef0f32d18469340e16a877713c7.pngThis is a heck of a set up. Given what happened in the Bearing sea a couple days ago there could be a big system between the 16th and the 21st if my calculations are correct

Great, just in time for my birthday (not that I have any plans or am going anywhere this year)...

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5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

image.thumb.png.94039ef0f32d18469340e16a877713c7.pngThis is a heck of a set up. Given what happened in the Bearing sea a couple days ago there could be a big system between the 16th and the 21st if my calculations are correct

Every week for this epic storm gets pushed back. Last week was 10-15th. This week it’s the 15-21st. This is how you know you’re in a warm winter

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2 hours ago, dmc76 said:

Every week for this epic storm gets pushed back. Last week was 10-15th. This week it’s the 15-21st. This is how you know you’re in a warm winter

Yep, I was enjoying the random 1-2" snowfalls. Luckily GTHA goes into this boring period with about 3-4" of snow on the ground. 

Ideally it holds off until late January and we get 4-6 weeks of cold shots and storminess and pattern change again in mid march with above seasonal temps. I dont even know the last time we had a warm second half of march and April. 

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It doesn't look great through mid month but it also doesn't look like a torch because of the strong west based -NAO. Without it, it would be a full on torch. Pacific jet will remain active during this time with a tendency for systems to come underneath, though you can't rule out individual waves edging a bit north. One thing to keep in mind about the upcoming pattern is it should help keep a lot of the snow/glacier cover in place if you're into that.

Mid month and beyond should have colder air involved as the EPO trends neutral to slightly negative (the ens means h5 looks more negative than the charts) and PNA also trends neutral to possibly slightly negative while maintaining -AO/-NAO. The pattern hasn't really gotten pushed back, week 1 into week 2 never looked great.

I wouldn't rule out some snow for parts of the sub, but better chances should arrive toward and beyond 1/15 barring big changes from what we're seeing later in the ensemble runs. If we can get the slightly negative PNA the GEFS is advertising toward end of run, that would only help but even the EPS has the ridge axis far west enough that it doesn't scream CAD necessarily.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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4 hours ago, dmc76 said:

Every week for this epic storm gets pushed back. Last week was 10-15th. This week it’s the 15-21st. This is how you know you’re in a warm winter

I didnt know we were talking an epic storm lol. Just a change toward more sustained winter.

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1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said:

Yep, I was enjoying the random 1-2" snowfalls. Luckily GTHA goes into this boring period with about 3-4" of snow on the ground. 

Ideally it holds off until late January and we get 4-6 weeks of cold shots and storminess and pattern change again in mid march with above seasonal temps. I dont even know the last time we had a warm second half of march and April. 

I was enjoying them too. My area did among the best locally in the Nov/Dec snows and now unfortunately the Jan 1-3 slopfest we did the worst. Our snow has melted and we go into boring stretch without snow on the ground. Will be very interesting to see where we all are and we look to be headed on Jan 15th.

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

It doesn't look great through mid month but it also doesn't look like a torch because of the strong west based -NAO. Without it, it would be a full on torch. Pacific jet will remain active during this time with a tendency for systems to come underneath, though you can't rule out individual waves edging a bit north. One thing to keep in mind about the upcoming pattern is it should help keep a lot of the snow/glacier cover in place if you're into that.

Mid month and beyond should have colder air involved as the EPO trends neutral to slightly negative (the ens means h5 looks more negative than the charts) and PNA also trends neutral to possibly slightly negative while maintaining -AO/-NAO. The pattern hasn't really gotten pushed back, week 1 into week 2 never looked great.

I wouldn't rule out some snow for parts of the sub, but better chances should arrive toward and beyond 1/15 barring big changes from what we're seeing later in the ensemble runs. If we can get the slightly negative PNA the GEFS is advertising toward end of run, that would only help but even the EPS has the ridge axis far west enough that it doesn't scream CAD necessarily.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Thanks as always for the input. It would be nice to get a pattern that's perfect for the entire lakes sub lol. It seems like those in the East are excited about the pattern which sometimes can mean a lot of misses for the Midwest, although the Eastern part of the sub can often cash in on stuff in an eastern pattern. Where's a bowling ball when you want one?

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11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thanks as always for the input. It would be nice to get a pattern that's perfect for the entire lakes sub lol. It seems like those in the East are excited about the pattern which sometimes can mean a lot of misses for the Midwest, although the Eastern part of the sub can often cash in on stuff in an eastern pattern. Where's a bowling ball when you want one?

If that PNA ridge in the west can stay off the coast rather than poking into AB, we can see storms across our region. Otherwise the pattern is more favorable for the east coast given the strong west based -NAO. Would be nice if we had typical Nina like ridging towards AK and the Aleutians. Most of Western Canada continues to torch and that's never good for winter storms or sustained cold. But until Jan 15, a pretty boring stretch inbound. 

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8 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

If that PNA ridge in the west can stay off the coast rather than poking into AB, we can see storms across our region. Otherwise the pattern is more favorable for the east coast given the strong west based -NAO. Would be nice if we had typical Nina like ridging towards AK and the Aleutians. Most of Western Canada continues to torch and that's never good for winter storms or sustained cold. But until Jan 15, a pretty boring stretch inbound. 

Detroit & especially Toronto can cash in on snow in an east pattern, ive seen it many times before. And the entire sub can get clippers. But obviously sounds like we would want the ridge to stay off the coast so we all could see some storminess.

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13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Detroit & especially Toronto can cash in on snow in an east pattern, ive seen it many times before. And the entire sub can get clippers. But obviously sounds like we would want the ridge to stay off the coast so we all could see some storminess.

You're right. There have been many instances where you and I have cashed in where the rest of the sub didn't. The upcoming pattern doesn't look favorable for clippers with a relatively weak polar jet. Need more Nina influence on the pattern. It's mixed between Nino and Nina right now. But one thing is for sure, there's potential for phased storms in the upcoming pattern. Hopefully we get a redux of a classic great lakes winter storm.

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8 hours ago, hlcater said:

The BSR and LRC are meteorology’s equivalent to voodoo dolls and dark magic

Anecdotally I'd say the Bering Sea Rule/concept has more merit, which would make sense since it's on a shorter time scale.  The LRC seems too easy to go back and try to fit the narrative that you want.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Anecdotally I'd say the Bering Sea Rule/concept has more merit, which would make sense since it's on a shorter time scale.  The LRC seems too easy to go back and try to fit the narrative that you want.

Yeah I always hear about the LRC a few times a winter which makes me think they just find a couple times it matches the pattern from ~45 days back and make it work.  If it was a true match we could just map out the whole winter.

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The people in the south are going crazy. It would be nuts if Atlanta and Birmingham get more snow than Indy this winter, but i think that will happen.

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