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MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion


JoMo
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So the Tues-Thurs or so storm is more difficult to discern. The initial round on Tues/Tues night is pretty clear cut but after that, it gets confusing due to differing model solutions on how the trough forms or behaves. The farther south and east you go, the greater the amounts is pretty clear.  I think the NAM is probably the farthest northwest so far in this morning's model runs.

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5 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

Seriously!

if clouds don’t move in, we might hit -15.

TSA touches on this, says there's a chance we really bottom out.

 

The snow is finally winding down across northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas as the system continues to push off to the east
and northeast. The latest mesoanalysis and radar imagery continues
to suggest a little bit of enhanced frontogenetical banding
continuing over northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Locally moderate to heavy snowfall continues to be reported at
this time. An additional inch of snow will be possible this
morning through early this afternoon across far eastern Oklahoma
and northwestern Arkansas.

Behind this wave of snow, the clouds are breaking with mostly
clear skies across much of central and southern Oklahoma with
clearing skies moving into eastern Oklahoma. This clearing is
expected to be short lived before clouds move in later this
afternoon and evening. There is still some uncertainty in terms of
cloud cover for this evening and overnight. If clouds scatter out
or clear, temperatures will hit rock bottom tonight especially
since winds will be light. AKA tonight will potentially be a
perfect situation for intense radiational cooling with
temperatures possibly lower than currently forecast. Confidence,
however is not high enough at this time to adjust temperatures
overnight from the previous forecast. Trends will continue to be
monitored. The next wave of snow moves in by late morning or early
afternoon tomorrow.
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Man, most 00z models really missed on this fairly significant amount of wrap around snow in KS/MO/OK, im not exactly sure how much it'll amount to as far as accumulation, but this band is quite large and really nothing besides yesterday's 12z NAM had picked up on this (the 18z/00z backed off). Current hi-res models appear to be doing anywhere from modest to very poor in handling it. Hi-res models generally stink with snow, sometimes they can sniff out subtle things before globals but ouch.

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10 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Man, most 00z models really missed on this fairly significant amount of wrap around snow in KS/MO/OK, im not exactly sure how much it'll amount to as far as accumulation, but this band is quite large and really nothing besides yesterday's 12z NAM had picked up on this (the 18z/00z backed off). Current hi-res models appear to be doing anywhere from modest to very poor in handling it. Hi-res models generally stink with snow, sometimes they can sniff out subtle things before globals but ouch.

Yeah, it's almost noon and we've got light snow still forming to the west of Tulsa. Definitely not something most of the models picked up on at all...

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11 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Man, most 00z models really missed on this fairly significant amount of wrap around snow in KS/MO/OK, im not exactly sure how much it'll amount to as far as accumulation, but this band is quite large and really nothing besides yesterday's 12z NAM had picked up on this (the 18z/00z backed off). Current hi-res models appear to be doing anywhere from modest to very poor in handling it. Hi-res models generally stink with snow, sometimes they can sniff out subtle things before globals but ouch.

Light steady snow here. About a half inch down likely going to pull 1 to 1.5 out of it. Nice snow growth a times so ratios most be decent. Nice surprise up here.

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Have had off and on snow all morning around Wichita as well. Not sure on accumulation since so much snow already on ground, but a guess is 0.5-1". If I recall only models that picked up on this was NAM & RAP but could be mistaken. Has been slowly weakening but very back edge west of Wichita is starting to pick up again, which was actually picked up on the 15Z RAP IIRC. For a moment, it was snowing with sun peaking through clouds which was cool to see. 

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13 minutes ago, RocketWX said:

Have had off and on snow all morning around Wichita as well. Not sure on accumulation since so much snow already on ground, but a guess is 0.5-1". If I recall only models that picked up on this was NAM & RAP but could be mistaken. Has been slowly weakening but very back edge west of Wichita is starting to pick up again, which was actually picked up on the 15Z RAP IIRC. For a moment, it was snowing with sun peaking through clouds which was cool to see. 

Picked up another half-inch in the last six hours. Officially 4" on the ground here in Wichita. 

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12z Euro/GFS really backing off on snow totals for tomorrow/Wednesday storm. Hi-res models are generally higher, but disagree on exact location on heavier band. I think this one will end up with a much more narrow area of good snows compared to yesterday/today. I think most should expect 2-4", with isolated 6-8" possible if the hi-res models are right with a heavier band. 

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