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wdrag

Beneficial 1-3" rain, iso 4.5" 2PM Sunday 11th-2PM Tuesday Oct 13

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Leading mid level frontogenesis (FGEN) developing northeastward ahead of remnant DELTA will probably begin showers-sprinkles over NJ/NYC during Sunday afternoon-evening. Subsequent intensifying bands of FGEN associated with a probable sfc low crossing NJ Monday to Cape Cod early Tuesday will lead to periods of moderate to heavy rain with gusty east winds briefly nudging 35 knots coastal LI to Sandy Hook NJ for a time Monday. PWAT generally 1.5 to 1.9" through the event should result in widespread 1"+ of rain with 3"+ more likely reserved for parts of the upslope Poconos, then across central-ne NJ to LI with Isolated 4.5" possible.  Best chance of 4.5" seems to be across Ocean Middlesex Counties of NJ "IF" it is to occur.  Quite a bit of cold air damming is anticipated and temperatures north of the surface low may only be in the upper 40s and 50s during the day Monday throughout the forum (coldest north of LI, and across se NYS down into extreme nw NJ). 

Heaviest rain should be done by 11PM Monday evening, but leftover periods of cyclonic flow drizzle and bands of showers associated with the trough axis passage will occur into the early daylight hours Tuesday. 

Flash Flood Guidance is high so flash flooding unlikely though ponding of water is expected to slow travel at times Monday (in part caused by short periods of heavy rain and some leaf clogged drainage basins). 

We need the rain.  

 

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36 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Looks as if this is mainly a morning event monday? NAM is showing very heavy rain during the morning, but only a little light rain during the afternoon.

Yeah it looks scattered Monday afternoon and evening. Pretty typical that it ends up a 12 hour event rather than the 3 days models had been showing

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16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The big high looks to be winning out. Why can’t this ever happen in the winter with SWFEs.... :( 

this is starting to look like a bust

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THROUGH MONDAY 8PM only.      Flash Flood threat is Marginal at 5%.

The SREF Plumes are back up by about 0.5" in latest output to 2.3".

Delta_rainfall.gif

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Good Sunday morning all,  not much change in the overall scenario outlined in the topic starter but from my side, a few adjustment considerations.  

1) Rather cold Monday rains with wind chill upper 30s in some high terrain locations Poconos Sussex-Orange Counties into sw CT. 

2) There may be a slight southward drift for the main qpf shield since 24 hours ago... to me that raises the possibility of maybe only near 1" Pike, northern Sussex, across Orange Putnam counties with less than 1" Ulster-Dutchess-Litchfield.  Unsure of this slightly lower northern fringe qpf. 

3) Max rainfall axis in our area continues modeled Ocean, Monmouth, Middlesex in NJ then to the s coast of LI...best chance of 3" with iso 4.5 still possible but imo, only Ocean Monmouth. 

4) Gale assured now with max gust probably 40-50 MPH LI, NJ coast Monday. 

5)  Start time late today may be slightly too fast for NNJ/NYC but some modeling is spotting light showers there 5P-10P. 

6) NEW from my review-failed to check yesterday. Minor coastal flooding appears probable now for the Monday afternoon high tide NJ coast... haven't checked LI but follow OKX.

I'm an mPING user. 

 

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro barely an inch. Looks more impressive for the end of the week 

NAM is about the same. 4k much more impressive.  

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2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro barely an inch. Looks more impressive for the end of the week 

Big cut back in rainfall the last few runs of the models. The radar look very unimpressive to our south 

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44 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Big cut back in rainfall the last few runs of the models. The radar look very unimpressive to our south 

Seemed it was heading in this direction when I saw some breaks of sun a few hours ago.

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Long ways to go... and to me it looks nasty at times for LI/NJ coast into Tuesday morning. Think the topic with it's 628AM Sunday commented adjustments is valid. 

It took a while for the measurable rain to make it to I80 north (midnightish).

My only significant adjustment is that it's apparent that the heavier bands occurring this morning may ease to drizzle for a time this afternoon with renewed bands of heavier showers/rain redeveloping northward late today and especially overnight-early Tuesday.  The strongest east wind for this entire system may not occur til around 2AM-7AM Tuesday when gusts 45 or possibly 50 MPH should occur near coastal LI.  2+" of rain not impossible for NYC by the time 2PM Tuesday rolls around, and thinking isolated 4.5" still within the realm of possibility either tiny portion of the NJ coast (Ocean.Monmouth) or possibly LI. 

So far, over 1" has occurred in a portion of coastal Ocean County NJ, and many locations 1/4-3/4" in NJ.  Winds are gusting to ~ 30 MPH much of the NJ coast. 

OKX radar storm total looks reasonable to me. 

Follow local NWS statements on tidal flooding at the time of high tide. 

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3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Long ways to go... and to me it looks nasty at times for LI/NJ coast into Tuesday morning. Think the topic with it's 628AM Sunday commented adjustments is valid. 

It took a while for the measurable rain to make it to I80 north (midnightish).

My only significant adjustment is that it's apparent that the heavier bands occurring this morning may ease to drizzle for a time this afternoon with renewed bands of heavier showers/rain redeveloping northward late today and especially overnight-early Tuesday.  The strongest east wind for this entire system may not occur til around 2AM-7AM Tuesday when gusts 45 or possibly 50 MPH should occur near coastal LI.  2+" of rain not impossible for NYC by the time 2PM Tuesday rolls around, and thinking isolated 4.5" still within the realm of possibility either tiny portion of the NJ coast (Ocean.Monmouth) or possibly LI. 

So far, over 1" has occurred in a portion of coastal Ocean County NJ, and many locations 1/4-3/4" in NJ.  Winds are gusting to ~ 30 MPH much of the NJ coast. 

OKX radar storm total looks reasonable to me. 

Follow local NWS statements on tidal flooding at the time of high tide. 

Mount Pocono 41 degrees at 10:00am with a wind chill of 33

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