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Delta Banter Thread

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Watch this thing make landfall as a tropical storm just to mess with people. Haven't had too many TC forecasts bust low this year!

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Bring it on. Hurricane Charlie to Maryland. 
Finally someone who understands what a good season would look like
I would take Hugo over Charlie

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5 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

But in Maryland. 

cantore.jpg

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3 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

1E4D14A2-D390-41C9-A600-B83E70E72089.jpeg.cae4b3f00291473ab36c5c631751bdc2.jpeg

 

 

I didn't know Lobster fest was back on again at Red Lobster. 

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My favorite part of being in the Greek alphabet was that nobody refers to the storm  as "HE" or 'SHE".
Of course now someone did anyway.
Delta is a female name- such as Delta Burke or as in...






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Curious:

I posted a comment on the Hurricane Delta forum that was removed earlier this morning. It was a legitimate thought, yet on a subject that appears to be taboo with many professional mets. I've been aware of this since Katrina when I posted a comment on another storm forum and felt like I really struck a nerve. For the life of me I cannot understand the emotions that this concept stirs up with many pros. Maybe somebody can explain?

Myself, I've been passionately watching storms my whole life. I've noticed the past several years, especially in the western Gulf of Mexico that when an eye is forecast to be perfect, weird things happen and the eye keeps losing its structure. Mets toss out theories to explain even when they are surprised. Conditions appeared perfect, then whammy something happens and everyone wonders why. I remember reading the storm forum I was on with both Katrina and Harvey while watching the sats and the eye just never could get going. Granted a few moments here and there, but never what we see on the open ocean or prior to 15 years ago. 2020 has been a year like that.

I've been interested in weather modification starting when I heard about StormFury as a teenager in the 70s. In the late 90's I had a website client who was a professional psychic, Robert Petro. He used to tell me he was part of a secret team paid by the government to use his "powers" to divert hurricanes from populated areas. True? Beats me.

But anyway, I have read about the Texas seeding program that is a fact. Not a conspiracy theory. But when I wonder if a hurricane is being seeded, it is as if I am bringing up a subject that is just simple "NOT" allowed. But why? Is that not a fair question?

In the post removed, I linked to an article that has a timeline for the "HURRICANE MODIFICATION WORKSHOP REPORT" held in 2008 which included NOAA and DHS. A few highlights:

https://climateviewer.com/2013/11/08/hurricane-hacking-the-department-of-homeland-security-enters-the-weather-modification-business/

Quote

 

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The potential loss of life, physical devastation, economic impact and loss of public confidence posed by a major hurricane could be as detrimental to the United States as any terrorist attack. These threats are significant and the magnitude of the impacts are increasing as a result of continued population shifts to coastal areas and potentially from the resultant changes to the environment. This trend is evidenced by the destruction of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 and Andrew and Iniki at the end of the Twentieth Century. Can we cause change to these horrific events that would reduce their destructive forces? This workshop was the first step in answering that question.

In view of these realities, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) with the organizational assistance of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Global Systems Division of the Earth Systems Research Laboratory sponsored a workshop on hurricane modification at the David Skaggs Research Center in Boulder, Colorado February 6-7, 2008. This action is consistent with the Homeland Security Act of 2002, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) mission to respond to threats and hazards to the nation and the Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) goal to accelerate delivery of enhanced technological capabilities to meet requirements and fill capability gaps to support DHS agencies in accomplishing their mission.

 

Yes I am aware there is no publicly known project for anyone to seed hurricanes today. I understand that the idea is considered "conspiracy theory" by most, if not all mets. But may I ask, is it 100% impossible that there could be a top secret DHS project to modify storms? I'd get why secret as the public outrage would be huge, especially when something backfires (Katrina, Harvey?)

Why is this topic so taboo?

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41 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Because seeding doesn't work. They thought StormFury was working, then they figured out EWRCs and dry air intrusions were a thing.

StormFury was nearly 40 years ago. They definitely learned a few things about hurricanes and what may or may not work. But given the potential weather modification has on many levels, both good and bad, to me it seems odd that it would just go away. Of course there are seeding projects actively going on world-wide showing some measurable results as far as rain and snow.

So 40 years later since StormFury, I still think about what may be happening under the very tight secrecy of National Security. Maybe nothing at all. But if there is something going on that we are not privy to, all we can see is strange effects that occur. Sudden cold spots in eye wall convection get my attention, yet very well can be unforeseen meteorological events in a storm that have everybody speculating. Gulf hurricanes' eyes have been unpredictable for a few years. So many threads, "I see an eye!" Then, "Nope, fell apart." Repeat...

Not pushing the issue, but it is fascinating to me and there may be a day when we find out it has been going on without our knowledge. (As if that kind of thing never happens.)

 

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Based on what I remember seeing over the past few years, including 2020, we may see a clear eye just before landfall. That is only a wild guess. ;)

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Because seeding doesn't work. They thought StormFury was working, then they figured out EWRCs and dry air intrusions were a thing.

If “they” were trying again they wouldn’t tell “us”. Too many national security and bad press implications. 
 

I am not sure we should give up on geoengineering and messing with hurricanes just because a mid 20th century program was a failure. 

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4 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

I am not sure we should give up on geoengineering and messing with hurricanes just because a mid 20th century program was a failure. 

Might depend on who is in charge...

;)

Scientists? Yea, OK, maybe. Politicians? Nope.

Effectively weakening a deadly storm before landfall? Sure

Preventing a storm from doing its natural purpose over the ocean? Nope.

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Meh... I look at the issue like this. If we were being successful with a program that was trying to be preventative in stopping hurricane landfalls, we're really sucking at it right now, as the track record has been horrible and has been the past five years. The economic toll has been pretty bad. So no real improvement in that regard.

 

I don't even want to consider the other aspect, as if that was ever a real secret project and it got out, oh dear God. You're going to have entire regions go to war based on financial loss, human suffering, etc.. That is why I choose to think any such program is garbage. It doesn't make sense from a economic or practical sense. Furthermore there's just too much required need for any humans related to such a project to give up any semblance of a conscience, ethical and moral reason to live, much more live with themselves.

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29 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

If “they” were trying again they wouldn’t tell “us”. Too many national security and bad press implications. 
 

I am not sure we should give up on geoengineering and messing with hurricanes just because a mid 20th century program was a failure. 

maybe most aspects of it are still science fiction but as global warming progresses i think it's a virtual certainty that geoengineering gets serious scientific interest.  for all i know it has already.

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Requesting a little information.

I'm aware that [most of?] the Hurricane Hunter [53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron "Hurricane Hunters"] operations are currently based at JBSA Lackland in San Antonio.

At ~0647h this morning a heavy prop-driven aircraft passed nearly over my house, a rare event [with a 'heavy', normally lots of AF trainers and jets, helos many days ].

Due to socked in local WX thanks to Delta, I didn't see it, low dense ceiling, aviation sounds get tricky.

So, I've been digging around at Tropical Tidbits and the USAF HH web [see below].

There was data indicating "AF303 Mission #20 into DELTA" was very close to my location at 1147Z. Hot Damn! this innartoobs stuff is effing amazing [--been in what is now IT/computers since 1969... ;]  ].

Can someone verify and let me know if the AF303 equipment was a WC-130J Hercules ? And perhaps what it's altitude, etc. was?

It's been interesting sensing Delta's subtle effects on our local weather since ~Tuesday, wind slowly backing SE to N/NW, cloud layers, barometric, etc.

Partial data:

https://tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[Thanks LC]

"AF303 Mission #18 into DELTA
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance  |  Status: Finished

As of 11:47 UTC Oct 09, 2020:
Aircraft Position: 29.20°N 98.20°W

Bearing: 270° at 314 kt
Altitude: 1766 gpm  [gpm? has slipped my mind what this is]
Peak 10-second Wind: 17 kt at 49°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

Aircraft Data Time Series (click to enlarge):"

https://tropicaltidbits.com/data/recon_AF303-1826A-DELTA.txt

"...

114200 2908N 09741W 5447 05182 0247 -023 //// 038003 006 /// /// 05
114230 2909N 09744W 5602 04967 //// -031 //// 005012 015 /// /// 05
114300 2910N 09747W 5845 04626 //// -013 //// 011015 015 /// /// 05
114330 2911N 09750W 6086 04302 //// +009 //// 007015 015 /// /// 05
114400 2911N 09753W 6324 03992 //// +032 //// 011016 016 /// /// 05
114430 2911N 09755W 6581 03667 //// +056 //// 024015 016 /// /// 05
114500 2911N 09758W 6845 03344 //// +080 //// 032016 016 /// /// 05
114530 2911N 09801W 7118 03020 //// +091 //// 036017 017 /// /// 05
114600 2911N 09804W 7392 02706 //// +104 //// 033017 018 /// /// 05
114630 2911N 09807W 7673 02392 //// +123 //// 035015 016 /// /// 05
114700 2912N 09809W 7959 02083 //// +141 //// 028014 014 /// /// 05
114730 2912N 09812W 8262 01766 //// +152 //// 049016 017 /// /// 05"

[series appears to end here, not too far away  ]

 

https://www.403wg.afrc.af.mil/About/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/192529/53rd-weather-reconnaissance-squadron-hurricane-hunters/

 

Thanks y'all .

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