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October Discobs 2020


George BM

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From Met Walt Drag

A fair amount of discussion about the 25th-26th...  am considering a topic since it's amped with potential,  but that this could still easily be a marine storm once past FL.  I'd like to see more ensemble agreement on a storm up the coast, supported by 30% or greater prob for 2"+ along the E Coast. If that were to occur, it's probably a few days off but imo, little doubt (in my mind) the models are onto two more tropical systems 19th-26th in the W ATLC. One other thing...while most of the debate is about 1) whether a storm, and then 2) either out to sea or up the coast... I can visualize jet stream pattern adjustments that permit E GMEX and northward up the W side of Apps.  Just very-very-very early.

I think Epsilon may get named within 48 hrs. Am posting on tropical page a couple of graphics.  It probably won't a direct influence on our area except for swells... however, its eventual development may strengthen the WAR, and provide an even more favorable flow pattern for the 25tth-26th?  We'll see, Post goes up by 525PM, unless it's already done there by a tropics poster. 

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39 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I'll take it.

Just about at 3" for the month so far, which is actually dry compared to the previous 3 months.

I have also scored relatively well with rainfall. Grass is green and lush. Tomorrow AM.looks like junior league Jebb walk weather.  Looking forward to a walk with my greyhound trying on his new European sweater. 

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This was a surprise for my area, updated at 9:30 PM from MH AFD.

With this update, have expanded the Frost Advisory to all counties
where the growing season remains active, save for Philadelphia and
Delaware Counties and the coastal strip. While the odds of frost
will decrease closer to the urban corridor, there is enough
potential in the more outlying areas to warrant an advisory
throughout the CWA. Also, some areas within the advisory may get
down to freezing, but not expecting it to be widespread enough to
warrant a Freeze Warning in areas where the growing season remains
active.

 

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Looking ahead we go significantly above normal later this week. Anyone with flowers that did not have meaningful frost damage  look to hang around deep into the month.  Huge storm off the coast late week.  but a phasing opportunity is lessening. 

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