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wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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2 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

I know very little about this stuff, but from what I’m learning, these 850 temps and froude numbers with a slightly blocked flow look great for some high ratio upslope powder here.

356A5593-37A9-444B-83E2-A666831BC407.jpeg

Yeah that's a good look for Jay Peak for sure.  I like it for Mansfield but it does get a bit too blocked once it gets towards 0.75.  Tomorrow evening should be pulsing way downwind of the mountains with froude of 2.0-3.0.  With retrograding moisture the best QPF is usually up at Jay Peak anyway, closer to the deeper moisture.

The HRRR Kuchie maps worked out well in the last event, almost spot on.  Here's the latest on this one, ha.  Looks like Kuchie would be around 30:1 ratios... where 0.20" water brings 6".

hrrr-vt-total_snow_kuchera-5053600.thumb.png.5ed9cc5041a328cc1318e1ef9d8e4e30.png

 

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BTV AFD...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 313 PM EST

Thursday...Pleasant weather conditions out there at the moment. Temperatures have even reached 30 degrees for portions of southern Vermont. Winds have been on the breezy side, but not seeing much in the way of gustiness. The higher dewpoint depressions than forecast have made it tougher for mountain snow showers to begin developing, with virga that moved in that then dissipated. Thus, anticipate we remain dry for the rest of the afternoon.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM tonight through 7 PM Friday.

An upslope snow event will unfold this evening as a trough moves towards the North Country. The snow growth zone is plenty deep, and with moisture wrapping around deep low pressure, we should see light, fluffy snow with snow-to-liquid ratios in the 20:1 to 30:1 range. With the lack of any other synoptic forcing, we are looking at mostly orographic snow on northwest facing slopes of the northern Greens and Adirondacks. Our flow overnight is semi-blocked. As we transition into Friday, Froude numbers increase and flow becomes unblocked. A brief lull is expected late morning into the afternoon, but then an additional slug of moisture and increased vertical motion from cyclonic vorticity advection will promote more snow showers. As a surface trough pushes through, we should an additional round of snow Friday afternoon, with even some instability present. There could be some brief, heavy snow showers. However, it does not look like ground visibilities will be impacted too much, nor will we see flash freeze concerns. When both of these phases are added together, snowfall totals on northwest slopes of the Greens and Adirondacks will see 3 to 6 inches, with locally up to 10 inches at the higher summits. Northwestern Vermont and the southern Greens should see 1 to 3 inches of snow. Then the rest of the region should see about an 1 or less.

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7 hours ago, MRVexpat said:

https://bangordailynews.com/2021/02/16/news/piscataquis/developer-will-seek-up-to-135m-to-finance-moosehead-lake-ski-resort/

Would be cool, just unsure of demand that far north. At this point just hoping that Saddleback can stick around beyond the next 5 years. 

I was told Saddleback's business plan assumed 200k-300k skier visits a year. I would be surprised if they do more than 100k this year. I love skiing there, but don't see how it works out long term. Industry rumor is that even Loaf has been a ball and chain on Boyne for many years. I love Greenville and Moosehead Lake area but that's 100% sled country and is totally a haul to get there from anywhere and get's most of its traffic from Augusta/Bangor/Waterville corridor which is just not big enough of a metro area to support a major ski resort. I've actually enjoyed the setup they've had for a number of years now with access to the upper mountain via earn-your turns. Reliable cold also makes for a hidden gem region for nordic skiing. 

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5 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

I was told Saddleback's business plan assumed 200k-300k skier visits a year. I would be surprised if they do more than 100k this year. I love skiing there, but don't see how it works out long term. Industry rumor is that even Loaf has been a ball and chain on Boyne for many years. I love Greenville and Moosehead Lake area but that's 100% sled country and is totally a haul to get there from anywhere and get's most of its traffic from Augusta/Bangor/Waterville corridor which is just not big enough of a metro area to support a major ski resort. I've actually enjoyed the setup they've had for a number of years now with access to the upper mountain via earn-your turns. Reliable cold also makes for a hidden gem region for nordic skiing. 

No way Saddleback comes anywhere close to 250-300k skier visits a year.  Half that maybe?  I agree with all your points.

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8 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

I was told Saddleback's business plan assumed 200k-300k skier visits a year. I would be surprised if they do more than 100k this year. I love skiing there, but don't see how it works out long term. Industry rumor is that even Loaf has been a ball and chain on Boyne for many years. I love Greenville and Moosehead Lake area but that's 100% sled country and is totally a haul to get there from anywhere and get's most of its traffic from Augusta/Bangor/Waterville corridor which is just not big enough of a metro area to support a major ski resort. I've actually enjoyed the setup they've had for a number of years now with access to the upper mountain via earn-your turns. Reliable cold also makes for a hidden gem region for nordic skiing. 

Don't know how many skied there this season, but that place had more 911 pocket dials - usually from on a lift - than any other place/places in Franklin County, according to the sheriff's report.  :lol:

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

No way Saddleback comes anywhere close to 250-300k skier visits a year.  Half that maybe?  I agree with all your points.

Ya I have no way to confirm that but even at 100k-150k visits it's gotta be hard to make money. They've build a bit of a reputation during the years they were closed ironically and maybe can capitalize on the growth in "resort touring" but those aren't the skiers you make money on. Prior to the closure I can remember going there and it was just a magnate for young skiers like myself who weren't spending a dime there beyond the price of the ticket if they were even paying for that. I would go there and run into like 5 people I knew every time and none of us were paying full price. You just can't make money in the ski industry if your core customer base are skiers like me lol 

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I was in Bethel today and man what a snowhole that place has been this year. I've got noticeably more snow OTG at my place 25 miles south. I've come to like my location for snow in Southern Maine. Often times we capitalize on whiffs further north, and in the gradient systems we're on the right side more often than not. I'm lazy and haven't checked my snow depth after the thaw but eyeballing I'm still pretty close to 15" of glacier. Local snowmobiling still looks good too. Noticed quite a few people out today. 

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50 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

I was told Saddleback's business plan assumed 200k-300k skier visits a year. I would be surprised if they do more than 100k this year. I love skiing there, but don't see how it works out long term. Industry rumor is that even Loaf has been a ball and chain on Boyne for many years. I love Greenville and Moosehead Lake area but that's 100% sled country and is totally a haul to get there from anywhere and get's most of its traffic from Augusta/Bangor/Waterville corridor which is just not big enough of a metro area to support a major ski resort. I've actually enjoyed the setup they've had for a number of years now with access to the upper mountain via earn-your turns. Reliable cold also makes for a hidden gem region for nordic skiing. 

And the roads are crap getting there too.

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1 hour ago, NW_of_GYX said:

I was in Bethel today and man what a snowhole that place has been this year. I've got noticeably more snow OTG at my place 25 miles south. I've come to like my location for snow in Southern Maine. Often times we capitalize on whiffs further north, and in the gradient systems we're on the right side more often than not. I'm lazy and haven't checked my snow depth after the thaw but eyeballing I'm still pretty close to 15" of glacier. Local snowmobiling still looks good too. Noticed quite a few people out today. 

Usually Bethel is a great spot but the last month-plus has sucked up there. So many of my March trips will have a big snow pack increase between about Windham and North Waterford/Stoneham and then it usually levels off with maybe a small increase toward Bethel and SR.

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2 hours ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Ya I have no way to confirm that but even at 100k-150k visits it's gotta be hard to make money. They've build a bit of a reputation during the years they were closed ironically and maybe can capitalize on the growth in "resort touring" but those aren't the skiers you make money on. Prior to the closure I can remember going there and it was just a magnate for young skiers like myself who weren't spending a dime there beyond the price of the ticket if they were even paying for that. I would go there and run into like 5 people I knew every time and none of us were paying full price. You just can't make money in the ski industry if your core customer base are skiers like me lol 

Yeah you start to run into the age old problem of ski resorts... there just aren't enough "core" skiers out there to sustain a good operation at any larger scale, and those core skiers normally aren't paying full rate anyway and their cost per day is usually pretty low.  You need money for upkeep, maintenance (of lifts, grooming machines, snowmaking systems, etc) and even things like getting fresh coats of paint on the lifts to keep presentation standards high cost a good deal of money.  So then you need to start attracting a higher dollar value guest.  And in order to do that you build more ancillary businesses (say a water park, golf course, skating rinks, kids adventure centers or activities center etc) to attract them.  In order to keep surviving, you realize you are going down the classic "resort" pathway, and you start to diverge from your original goal of just being a core mountain.  But its necessary to survive for many ski areas, especially ones that require a long drive to get to from population centers.

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Looks like moisture is starting to rotate back into the area from the north and that moisture should start to get blocked and converge further.

WUNIDS_map.gif.fc66610d1f9ae1facb64770f8b04d147.gif

 

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looks like moisture is starting to rotate back into the area from the north and that moisture should start to get blocked and converge further.

WUNIDS_map.gif.fc66610d1f9ae1facb64770f8b04d147.gif

started here about an hour ago.. very fine flakes....spotlight night

 

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah you start to run into the age old problem of ski resorts... there just aren't enough "core" skiers out there to sustain a good operation at any larger scale, and those core skiers normally aren't paying full rate anyway and their cost per day is usually pretty low.  You need money for upkeep, maintenance (of lifts, grooming machines, snowmaking systems, etc) and even things like getting fresh coats of paint on the lifts to keep presentation standards high cost a good deal of money.  So then you need to start attracting a higher dollar value guest.  And in order to do that you build more ancillary businesses (say a water park, golf course, skating rinks, kids adventure centers or activities center etc) to attract them.  In order to keep surviving, you realize you are going down the classic "resort" pathway, and you start to diverge from your original goal of just being a core mountain.  But its necessary to survive for many ski areas, especially ones that require a long drive to get to from population centers.

Sounds remarkably like the jay playbook...you should be in marketing or work for a ski resort!

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Gorgeous at BW today. Very firm and fast conditions. Perfect for carving on the groomed runs. The ungroomed stuff is really sketchy, IMO. But these are dream conditions for me right now.

Jay was similar.  I was with the kids, so i stayed on the groomers and they were very firm; not so much icy except a few spots, but firm with some powder on top.  7 year old hit some ice and couldn't cut a turn and went hard into a mesh fence (guess it's there for a reason)...scary moment, but he was more scared then injured.  My heart stopped for a minute tho, that's for sure.

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I don't think folks should read too much into Saddleback numbers in year one back, with Covid quarantine rules in place.   Let's see in 2 or 3 years if visits haven't grown.  

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11 minutes ago, radarman said:

I don't think folks should read too much into Saddleback numbers in year one back, with Covid quarantine rules in place.   Let's see in 2 or 3 years if visits haven't grown.  

Yeah for sure.  I was speaking long term though.  Even in ten years there’s no way IMO that location is getting 250-300k skier visits. 150k seems like it might be attainable if they can attract families.  They need to build a brand that makes people want to drive past other resorts.

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5 minutes ago, radarman said:

I don't think folks should read too much into Saddleback numbers in year one back, with Covid quarantine rules in place.   Let's see in 2 or 3 years if visits haven't grown.  

I agree is and skier demand is going to be through the roof next year if things move toward normal...They would need to take that opportunity to hook people to the resort and make them regulars.  I don't know the ownership structure.  How much of a leash do they have with the place and can they survive some low numbers for a time?

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22 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Jay was similar.  I was with the kids, so i stayed on the groomers and they were very firm; not so much icy except a few spots, but firm with some powder on top.  7 year old hit some ice and couldn't cut a turn and went hard into a mesh fence (guess it's there for a reason)...scary moment, but he was more scared then injured.  My heart stopped for a minute tho, that's for sure.

Yeah, those wipeouts are scary but kids are mostly rubber and bounce back up. 

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4 hours ago, NW_of_GYX said:

I was in Bethel today and man what a snowhole that place has been this year. I've got noticeably more snow OTG at my place 25 miles south. I've come to like my location for snow in Southern Maine. Often times we capitalize on whiffs further north, and in the gradient systems we're on the right side more often than not. I'm lazy and haven't checked my snow depth after the thaw but eyeballing I'm still pretty close to 15" of glacier. Local snowmobiling still looks good too. Noticed quite a few people out today. 

Bethel coop reported 17 OTG today. I believe its up on the hill behind the academy.  

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7 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah we were calling it "Deeper dust on crust" or the main joke of the day was "It looks so great, and then you go to make a turn and it's the loudest turn you've ever made."  And from what I saw, it looked like Bolton was the epicenter of this little event.  6-9" wouldn't surprise me.  I think they were in the best radar for most of that one.

I don't know if you follow the Pinnacle Ski Shop guys who do these unofficial Stowe snow report videos on instagram but they are usually great.  The one guy here, known as Birdman by locals, is hilarious.  He described the surface well, ha.  

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CL9Wz49hp5q/

Ha, that was great!  I went through a bunch of their reports over the past month or two, and it looks like a fun cast of characters.  How long have they been doing those reports?

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Looks like moisture is starting to rotate back into the area from the north and that moisture should start to get blocked and converge further.

WUNIDS_map.gif.fc66610d1f9ae1facb64770f8b04d147.gif

Driving home from BTV into the mountains on I-89 is always nice because you get those expansive views of the spine from the Mansfield area down through Bolton Mountain and on to Camel’s Hump. Today was one of those days where you got the extra treat of watching a storm roll in during the drive, and I could literally see the spine get enveloped in snowfall from north to south and top to bottom.  Then you start to see flakes through the windshield, and the intensity just continues to increase as you push into the mountains.

I stopped off at Richmond Market for some groceries, and the snowfall was already picking up with a very wintry wind that had the feel of an incoming system.  The snowfall intensity often continues to increase as I head east toward our place, but today it stayed fairly consistent and even dropped off a bit, and I can see on the radar that the moisture is still focused in the CPV and western slopes with a northerly flow.  We’re getting some flakes here with a bit of accumulation, but I bet the western slopes are doing better based on the radar.

04MAR21A.gif

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I didn’t see any notable changes in the BTV NWS alerts map, but there was definitely a bit of a bump in the event total snowfall map.  There’s more of that 8-12” shading in the Mansfield area now, and I see that the point forecast there through Saturday is in the 8-18” range.  Down here at our site there was a small increase in the point forecast to roughly the 3-7” range.

04MAR21C.jpg

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

I didn’t see any notable changes in the BTV NWS alerts map, but there was definitely a bit of a bump in the event total snowfall map.  There’s more of that 8-12” shading in the Mansfield area now, and I see that the point forecast there through Saturday is in the 8-18” range.  Down here at our site there was a small increase in the point forecast to roughly the 3-7” range.

 

04MAR21C.jpg

Stowe. Tomorrow.

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14 hours ago, mreaves said:

And the roads are crap getting there too.

Secondary roads in steep country tend to be that way.  The curves along the upper Sandy on Rt 4 are challenging (even after DOT bypassed the worst ones just north of Small's Falls about 10 years ago) , but IMO no worse than those on Rt 27 along the Carrabassett on the way to Sugarloaf.  Saddleback is next to a tourist town (however small) of long standing; Rangeley tourism dates back into the 1800s.  Whether that can translate into heavy winter traffic beyond snowmobiles waits to be seen.

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Busted overnight.  Thought we’d get 3-5” last night, turned into 0.5-2.0”.  Extremely high winds and no loft to the snow.  Definitely would’ve stacked a bit without so much turbulence.

We’ll see what today brings.

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The fun starts next week.  Mud season.  Every year is so different.   It was dry this fall so the moisture was not deep but then we got the Grinch storm but don't know how much moisture got down deep before freeze up.

Here is a video of my road leading up to my house a couple of years ago.

 

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